The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications
During 2017–2018, the National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated as follows: (1) an updated seismicity catalog was incorporated, which includes new earthquakes that occurred from 2013 to 2017; (2) in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), new ground motion models were updated that incorporate updated median estimates, modified assessments of the associated epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities, and new soil amplification factors; (3) in the western United States (WUS), amplified shaking estimates of long-period ground motions at sites overlying deep sedimentary basins in the Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Salt Lake City areas were incorporated; and (4) in the conterminous United States, seismic hazard is calculated for 22 periods (from 0.01 to 10 s) and 8 uniform VS30 maps (ranging from 1500 to 150 m/s). We also include a description of updated computer codes and modeling details. Results show increased ground shaking in many (but not all) locations across the CEUS (up to ~30%), as well as near the four urban areas overlying deep sedimentary basins in the WUS (up to ~50%). Due to population growth and these increased hazard estimates, more people live or work in areas of high or moderate seismic hazard than ever before, leading to higher risk of undesirable consequences from forecasted future ground shaking.
Citation Information
| Publication Year | 2019 |
|---|---|
| Title | The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications |
| DOI | 10.1177/8755293019878199 |
| Authors | Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Charles Mueller, Morgan P. Moschetti, Arthur Frankel, Sanaz Rezaeian, Daniel E. McNamara, Nicolas Luco, Oliver S. Boyd, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Kishor Jaiswal, Eric M. Thompson, Susan M. Hoover, Brandon Clayton, Edward H. Field, Yuehua Zeng |
| Publication Type | Article |
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Series Title | Earthquake Spectra |
| Index ID | 70211034 |
| Record Source | USGS Publications Warehouse |
| USGS Organization | Geologic Hazards Science Center |
Related Content
Data Release for Additional Period and Site Class Data for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous United States (ver. 1.1, February 2020)
Data Release for 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model
Related Content
- Data
Data Release for Additional Period and Site Class Data for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous United States (ver. 1.1, February 2020)
The updated 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model includes new ground motion models, aleatory uncertainty, and soil amplification factors for the central and eastern U.S. and incorporates basin depths from local seismic velocity models in four western U.S. (WUS) urban areas. These additions allow us, for the first time, to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard curves for an expanded set of spectralData Release for 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model
The 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model defines the potential for earthquake ground shaking for various probability levels across the conterminous United States and is applied in seismic provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk assessments, and other public policy. The updated model represents an assessment of the best available science in earthquake hazards - Connect