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2024 was another productive year for the Land Change Science Program in the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area! Below are some summaries and highlights of Program work from the past year.

Program Mission

The Land Change Science Program is at the frontier of interdisciplinary scientific research on some of the most pressing socioenvironmental challenges that communities face. Our mission is to understand how extreme events and disturbances affect natural resources to inform resource management and decision making.  Program scientists conduct long-term research in diverse ecosystems across North America, with the help of partners around the world.

Selected Program Stats

Sustained 37 Research Projects

Sustained 37 Research Projects

Published over 200 Scientific Articles and Data Releases

Published over 200 Scientific Articles and Data Releases

Mentored over 70 Interns or Students

Mentored over 70 Interns or Students

Supported over 150 Scientific Researchers and Technicians

Supported over 150 Scientific Researchers and Technicians

Title

Description

Science Across the Nation

Use the map to explore the different USGS Science Centers with scientists we help support.

Powerhouse of Paleo

With so much of the USGS paleoclimate and paleoecology research housed within the Program's portfolio, we worked with colleagues in the Office of Communications and Publishing to put together a special feature story on the innovative and critical work being done. We also partnered with a science illustrator to create three new graphics that help explain different types of ways paleoclimate scientists gather their data.

A comic style infographic of USGS researchers studying ice cores.
Ice Cores
A drawing of a crosscut section of a tree to display its rings and the potential events associated with their differences.
Tree Rings
A drawing of a crosscut sediment core depicting historic events from 1950 to 18,000 B.C
Sediment Core

Data Visualizations

This year, USGS launched a new science visualization gallery: Earth in Flux

A shared initiative between the USGS Water Resources Mission Area and Ecosystems Mission Area to communicate key findings of USGS land change science in innovative ways, and to encourage creativity, exploration, and community in data visualization across USGS mission areas. 

Six tiles arranged in a grid of 3 columns and 2 rows show thumbnails for visualizations in the Earth in Flux chart gallery
Thumbnails for six different data visualizations in the Earth is in Flux Chart Gallery.

Science Impact Spotlights

Below we’ve highlighted a handful of exciting accomplishments by Program scientists this past year to provide practical and pragmatic scientific information that benefits society.

Protecting Infrastructure

Along the Gulf of Mexico, national parks and refuges are vulnerable to sea-level rise, which threatens to inundate irreplaceable historic buildings, archeological sites, and other infrastructure located in low-lying areas. USGS scientists developed maps projecting future sea-level rise for federally managed units in the region, information which is being used by the National Park Service and US Fish and Wildlife Service in resilience planning. This year, Land Change Science Program scientists published a series of USGS Fact Sheets about projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at six parks in the region, in collaboration with their partners at the National Park Service.

Native American shell midden is exposed to erosion from sea level rise and storms

Reducing Risk from Fire

Hotter and drier conditions are making wildfires more intense and destructive across the United States.  Land Change Science Program scientists partner with National Park Service Managers at Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks to providing them with the latest science on Sequoia mortality and regeneration in the face of these high-severity wildfires. The USGS science is being used by NPS managers to make decisions about whether or not to plant giant sequoia seedlings as part of restoration efforts that ensure the iconic beauty and national heritage of the Park. USGS science is also used by resource managers to mitigate future postfire risks, including debris flow, water flow and quality, sedimentation, and vegetation recovery. For example, in Santa Fe, New Mexico, Land Change Science Program science informs local watershed management in order to mitigate risks associated with post-fire debris flows that threaten local water supplies. 

The remains after the Las Conchas fire, NM

Preparing Managers for Extreme Precipitation and Weather Disasters

Atmospheric rivers are some of the largest flood-producing extreme precipitation events in western North America and can cause catastrophic flooding and mudslides that damage life and property. Current records of atmospheric river activity are limited to just 70 years of instrumental data, but USGS science from the Land Change Science Program is changing that. Researchers used sediment core records to reconstruct past atmospheric river activity over the past 3,000 years and found that California has experienced past extreme rainfall events that were larger than what we’ve seen in the meteorologic instrumental era. 

These findings provide managers and partners with crucial data and awareness as they plan for the future. For example, many dams in California were designed over 50 years ago and relied on the limited climate datasets that were available at the time. Understanding just how large historic storms were before our instrumental records, is useful because it provides a more complete range of atmospheric river size, which allows partners to build durable infrastructure that can withstand future extreme precipitation events, potentially saving lives and reducing disaster recovery costs. 

Wildcat Lake, California

Tracking Indicators of Change to Inform Decision Making

The USGS provides practical and pragmatic, unbiased scientific information on the Earth’s ecosystems. This year, USGS scientists contributed to the Fifth National Climate Assessment – the US Government’s preeminent report on climate change impacts, risks, and responses – which was released in November 2023. Research by scientists from the Land Change Science Program was cited in the report on hazards (and their impacts) including floodswind erosion and dustincreasing temperatures; climate impacts on wetlandsArctic permafrost, and grasslands; and climate models.

In addition, USGS scientists were among the 590 scientists in nearly 59 countries, who contributed to an international annual review of Earth’s climate indicators and notable weather events: the 34th annual State of the Climate report. Scientists from the Land Change Science Program, Caitlyn Florentine and Louis Sass, were among the co-authors of an analysis of the Arctic in this year’s State of the Climate report.

Scientist with ablation stake

Engaging the Next Generation of Scientists

In addition to mentoring over 70 interns and students this year, program scientists led outreach activities, field trips, and more to engage, inspire, and develop the next generation of scientists. For example, Land Change Science Program scientists Harry Dowsett and Marci Robinson wrote a plain language article for kids aged 8-15 this year about their research for Frontiers for Young Minds, an open-access journal dedicated to providing youth with high-quality (and accessible) information about cutting-edge science. 

USGS volunteers talk to student at careers table.

Advancing Research and Policy with Novel Data Tools

The Land Change Science Program pushes scientific boundaries through innovation of scientific methods and other tools. Program scientist Greg Noe and colleagues collaborated to create open-source data and tools to support coastal and marine carbon – or blue carbon – research and policy by making blue carbon data more usable. Coastal ecosystems naturally help reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere through photosynthesis and by capturing carbon from inflowing water and storing carbon from accumulated organic material. Coastal managers and planners need data about blue carbon in order to enhance carbon sequestration along our Nation’s coasts.

Coastal ecosystems that store carbon and carbon flows within these ecosystems. Full alt text in caption.
Blue Carbon Rush Ranch Field Crew

Using Nature-Based Solutions

Nature-based solutions are a way to solve problems by using nature as tool. The USGS Ecosystems Land Change Science Program researches the effectiveness of nature-based solutions and informs decision-making about when and where to invest in these projects. Program scientist Benjamin Sleeter and colleagues published a study examining the potential for nature-based solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and remove atmospheric carbon dioxide under four future climate change scenarios across the State of California. The study utilized the USGS Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model, which is designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux.

 Outline of United States, AK, & HI, with cartoons illustrating nature-based solutions spread across the country.
Cliffs near Point Bonita lighthouse, Golden Gate National Recreation Area, California

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