Publications
Listed here are publications, reports and articles by the Land Change Science Program in the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area.
Filter Total Items: 1284
Selective mortality leads to competitive release of a foundational perennial grass in an aridifying grassland Selective mortality leads to competitive release of a foundational perennial grass in an aridifying grassland
Vegetation dynamics in dryland ecosystems are defined by competition for water, a limiting and increasingly variable resource. As aridification creates warmer and drier conditions, with more frequent and intense droughts, the nature of competitive relationships may be altered, leading to changes in community composition. Reduced water availability is expected to decrease the cover and...
Authors
Sean L. Hoy-Skubik, David L. Hoover, Alix A. Pfennigwerth, Anna C. Knight, Michael C. Duniway
On the fidelity of oxygen isotope-based sea level reconstructions: A case study of Marine Isotope Stage 3 On the fidelity of oxygen isotope-based sea level reconstructions: A case study of Marine Isotope Stage 3
Although foraminiferal oxygen isotope records (δ18OF) have long been used to develop time-continuous estimates of past global ice volume, growing evidence indicates that the ice volume and temperature contributions to δ18OF diverge considerably over the last glacial cycle. Across Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3; 57 to 29 ka), estimates of peak global sea level based on δ18OF are ∼30 m...
Authors
Tamara Pico, Jesse R. Farmer, Sarah Shackleton, Robert K. Poirier, Bradley R. Markle, Lorraine E. Lisiecki
Probabilistic forecasting of coastal wetland elevation and soil carbon response to sea-level rise Probabilistic forecasting of coastal wetland elevation and soil carbon response to sea-level rise
Tidal wetlands build soil as a dynamic response to inundation, resulting in carbon sequestration and resilience to sea-level rise. Process models can be used to make site-specific forecasts, anticipate future changes, and plan management responses. But to be actionable, forecasts from these models need to be accompanied by descriptions of their confidence. In this study, we demonstrate...
Authors
James R. Holmquist, E. Fay Belshe, Brandon M. Boyd, Lauren N. Brown, Samantha K. Chapman, Ron Corstanje, Meagan J. Eagle, Christopher N. Janousek, Minjee Jung, David H. Klinges, Michael Lonneman, James T. Morris, Gregory B. Noe, André Rovai, Jonathan Sanderman, Amanda C. Spivak, Katherine Todd-Brown, Megan Vahsen, Nicholas Ward, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, J. Patrick Megonigal
Fire regime shift reveals 17th century socio-ecological change in the Rio Grande del Norte National Monument, New Mexico Fire regime shift reveals 17th century socio-ecological change in the Rio Grande del Norte National Monument, New Mexico
Humans have influenced ecosystems for millennia, and social changes can have notable ecological effects. Recent human influence on ecosystems is exemplified by the collapse of fire regimes circa 1900 in the western United States due to increased grazing, fire suppression, and declining Indigenous fire use. Climate can also drive fire regime changes, which is reflected by increasing area...
Authors
Carolina Jasmine May, Manuel K. Lopez, Ellis Q. Margolis
Core microbiomes as a potential fingerprinting method of Western USA dust sources Core microbiomes as a potential fingerprinting method of Western USA dust sources
Introduction: Changing frequency and intensity of dust emissions impacts ecosystems and human health. Dust carries microbes, nutrients, heavy metals, and other materials that may change environmental biogeochemistry at deposition sites. Identifying dust sources provides key information on where and when mitigation strategies should be employed. However, commonly used geochemical or...
Authors
DeTiare L. Leifi, Sarah C. Peterson, Jakob L. Young, Gregory T. Carling, Janice Brahney, Michael C. Duniway, Beth A. Newingham, Nicholas P. Webb, Travis W. Nauman, Zachary T. Aanderud
Microfocus X-ray computed tomography to evaluate ostracode shell density and other metrics for monitoring ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean Microfocus X-ray computed tomography to evaluate ostracode shell density and other metrics for monitoring ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean
Ocean acidification (OA) poses a significant threat to the ability of marine calcifying organisms—such as mollusks, corals, crustaceans, and plankton—to form and maintain their calcium carbonate-based shells. While some species show greater sensitivity to OA than others, the impacts on benthic marine calcifiers remain inadequately understood. This study investigates the shell density...
Authors
Laura Gemery, Katsunori Kimoto, David J. Horne, Michiyo Yamamoto-Kawai, Siyi Yin, Ryan J. McAleer, Lee W. Cooper, Jacqueline M. Grebmeier, Aaron M. Jubb, Masanobu Yamamoto
Recent high-severity wildfires in a dry-conifer landscape are unprecedented over five centuries and foretell future forest loss Recent high-severity wildfires in a dry-conifer landscape are unprecedented over five centuries and foretell future forest loss
Dry forests of the western United States evolved with frequent, spatially extensive, low-severity fires, followed by a century of fire exclusion. Recently, these same forests have experienced large and increasingly severe fires causing widespread forest loss. To what extent do modern high-severity fires depart from pre-1900 fire regimes, and how do these departures affect the future...
Authors
Andreas P. Wion, Jens T. Stevens, Jonathan D. Coop, Calvin A. Farris, Sean A. Parks, Craig D. Allen, Ellis Q. Margolis
Towards a refined definition of “tidal influence” for the coastal wetland sciences Towards a refined definition of “tidal influence” for the coastal wetland sciences
The astronomical tide relates to lunar (and to a lesser extent solar) influences on rising and falling water bodies, and is a key control of many coastal processes. However, tides manifest along coastal margins in different ways to muddle application beyond Sir Isaac Newton’s first descriptions. Here, we argue that tide, or specifically “tidal,” has not been adequately defined for the...
Authors
Ken W. Krauss, Laura S. Brophy, Judith Z. Drexler, Jeffrey A. Kelleway, Janine B. Adams, Havalend E. Steinmuller, Gregory B. Noe, Michael J. Osland, Jamie A. Duberstein, Kurt P. Kowalski, Amanda L. McCutcheon, Kaile'a M. Annandale, Daniel A. Friess, Eric E. Grossman, Kristin B. Byrd, Kevin J. Buffington, Joel A. Carr, Nicholas M. Enwright, Camille L. Stagg, Davina L. Passeri, Stephanie S. Romanach, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, James B. Grace, Christopher G. Smith, Justine A. Neville, Karen M. Thorne, Brian J. Roberts
Southeastern Utah Federal lands science needs survey Southeastern Utah Federal lands science needs survey
Evidence-based scientific information can help support defensible decision making in the management of public lands. This report sought to identify current (2024–25) Federal agency research needs in southeastern Utah and to synthesize common management challenges and questions across jurisdictional boundaries. We implemented a science needs assessment focused on lands managed by the...
Authors
M. Allison Stegner, Jonathan Argov, Liz A. Ballenger, Kimberly Hartwig, Laura Martin, Gerald I. Wakefield, Rebecca A. Weissinger, Michael C. Duniway
Root biomass and productivity in coastal swamp forests of Louisiana (USA) Root biomass and productivity in coastal swamp forests of Louisiana (USA)
Coastal swamp forests (CSF) occupy approximately 225,000 ha in Southeastern Louisiana (USA), and across a large percentage of this area, CSF are subjected to sediment starvation, salinity intrusion, and chronic submergence. We assessed root biomass and productivity in nine CSF in Louisiana, and found that root biomass ranged from 420.8 g m−2 to 1712.2 g m−2 to a soil depth of 30 cm. Root...
Authors
Ken W. Krauss, Jorge A. Villa, Blair A. Miller, Eric J. Ward, Andrew S. From, Gregory B. Noe
Ecological transformations of coastal wetlands of the conterminous United States in response to contemporaneous sea-level rise Ecological transformations of coastal wetlands of the conterminous United States in response to contemporaneous sea-level rise
Coastal wetlands are among the most important ecosystems on the planet but are increasingly imperiled by accelerating sea-level rise (SLR). In the past, biogeomorphic feedbacks have allowed coastal wetlands to adjust vertically and persist through periods of accelerated SLR. Recent rates of SLR are faster than any in recent geologic history, making the fate of coastal wetlands highly...
Authors
Justine Annaliese Neville, Katya E. Kovalenko, Gregg A. Snedden, Michael J. Osland, Karen M. Thorne, Laura C. Feher, Michelle C. Moorman, Jena A. Moon, Ken W. Krauss, James B. Grace, Tiffany C. Lane, Colt R. Sanspree, Donald R. Cahoon, Glenn R. Guntenspergen
Quantifying methane emissions from a rich fen with uncrewed aircraft systems in boreal Alaska Quantifying methane emissions from a rich fen with uncrewed aircraft systems in boreal Alaska
Thawing of permafrost in northern latitudes is accelerating, potentially releasing substantial amounts of methane (CH4) as forested permafrost plateaus transition into wetlands. This ecosystem shift alters the carbon exchange between the soil and atmosphere, influencing the permafrost-carbon feedback. Monitoring these changes may require measurement platforms operating across varied...
Authors
J.M. Tomlin, C.W. Edgar, E. Seroki, E.S. Euskirchen, E.S. Kane, M.Y. McPartland, L.T. Iraci, Kristen L. Manies