Science for Changing Ecosystems
We are living in a time of unprecedented ecological change. USGS science can predict and help communities and ecosystems prepare for ecological changes to come.
Ecosystems are like a puzzle
An ecosystem is like a puzzle; all the pieces are interconnected. And just like a puzzle, an ecosystem needs every piece to be complete.
The physical parts of the environment, such as temperature, precipitation (rainfall and snow), and elevation, are like the corner and side pieces of the puzzle. They are the foundation for the rest of the system and help determine what type of ecosystem can take shape.
The central pieces of the ecosystem puzzle are the living things that are adapted to live under the specific environmental conditions set by the puzzle frame. Much like in a puzzle, each of these pieces are linked to each other. The living things in an ecosystem have relationships with each other—like predator and prey—and their interconnectedness helps build the overall ecosystem.
For example, the corner and side pieces of a sequoia forest ecosystem might include environmental conditions such as temperature, precipitation, and how frequently fire occurs. These pieces then determine what central pieces—living things such as trees, animals, and even bacteria—can fill the ecosystem.
Change is the only constant
However, ecosystems aren’t two-dimensional, nor are they static like a finished jigsaw puzzle. Environmental conditions change and so do the living things that are part of the ecosystem. When enough of the puzzle pieces change or are removed, an ecosystem puzzle can be reshaped or even fall apart.
Walking through California’s iconic giant sequoia forests brings that point into full focus. Historically, sequoia groves spanned the Northern Hemisphere. However, they are now confined to a relatively small area on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada mountains due to logging, environmental change, and habitat degradation. In recent years, unprecedented droughts and wildfires in California have killed an estimated 13-19% of mature sequoia trees. Many of these sequoias were killed in large areas of “high burn severity.” Although sequoias are adapted to, and rely upon, frequent fires, the large patches of high severity fires we are seeing today are well outside the historic norm for giant sequoia.
USGS is now working with partners at the National Park Service and U.S. Forest Service to learn how this ecosystem puzzle has changed and investigate what might be done to help rebuild the living, central pieces. The science team is studying whether natural seed regeneration will be enough to replenish the groves in several burned areas. USGS scientists are also investigating whether soil conditions, such as moisture and soil microbial communities, can increase sequoia seedling survival. This effort will help land managers identify the most effective replanting strategies and determine which areas are more or less likely to support successful sequoia seedling regeneration so these important ecosystems can continue to sustain important wildlife, sequester atmospheric carbon, and impress generations to come.
Change can occur quickly, as in the case of disturbances such as fires, earthquakes, or hurricanes. It can also occur more gradually.
Coastal wetlands are dynamic, acting as an interface between land and water. Environmental conditions, such as water availability and soil type, help shape these ecosystems, as only certain plants and animals can exist here. However, as temperatures warm, tropical, cold-sensitive species, such as mangroves, are expected to expand their range, displacing temperate species, such as salt marshes. While wetlands protect our coastlines from flooding and erosion, filter our water, and provide habitat for important fish and wildlife species, these shifts could impact the services they provide, leading to economic, ecological, and human health consequences.
USGS scientists are investigating the shifts in coastal wetland vegetation to better understand the implications of such changes, as well as their ability to recover following extreme winter temperatures, such as the recent freezing event across the Southeast. This information will help natural resource managers and policy makers make informed decisions related to the protection, restoration, and adaptation of coastal habitats and communities throughout the U.S.
Change can also occur on an imperceptible time scale, as is the case with geological change.
To prepare for our future, we need to unravel mysteries of the past. At USGS, paleo scientists are doing just that. Paleo science improves our understanding of how – and why – the environment has changed over time. USGS uses marine microfossils, plant remains, ancient pollen and spores, glacial ice, and other clues from the past to better understand what our planet’s ecosystems were once like and how they have changed.
Studying the past helps managers be better prepared for what is possible in the future. USGS scientists used sediment cores to reconstruct atmospheric river activity over the past 3,000 years in the western United States to provide crucial data and historical awareness to communities and managers as they plan for future water supply needs and flooding risks. While atmospheric rivers are an important part of the global water cycle, they can cause extreme rainfall and even flooding. Sediment layers preserve clues to past environmental conditions, including extreme precipitation events such as those related to atmospheric rivers, so cores allow us to reconstruct history going back centuries to millennia.
Many dams in California were designed over 50 years ago based on the limited environmental datasets that were available at the time. The long-term data that USGS can obtain from the sediment cores helps water managers avoid underestimation of potential flood risks and aid future planning scenarios. Understanding historic storm and flooding events is useful because it provides a more complete range of atmospheric river size, which allows partners to build durable infrastructure that can withstand future extreme precipitation events, potentially saving lives and reducing disaster recovery costs.
Science for a changing world
Scientists supported by the USGS Land Change Science Program in the Ecosystems Mission Area are some of the best jigsaw puzzle solvers. They specialize in many different fields of study and focus on many different ecosystem types, from terrestrial to aquatic, at many different scales, from local systems to systems that span the globe. While some excel at assembling the sides, others focus on piecing together the shape in the middle. They all come together to provide the Nation the information that is needed to protect our ecosystems and ensure their resiliency and ability to provide the services that we rely upon.
To do this, USGS uses specialized tools and technology, such as satellite imagery and powerful computers to improve projections of ecosystem change under different management scenarios, which strengthens our ability to respond and adapt.
With a large, multidisciplinary group of scientists dedicated to studying ecosystem change, USGS is uniquely poised to provide the most comprehensive and best available science to natural resource managers, policy makers, and the American public to inform decision making at the local, state, and federal levels. By studying change, scientists can learn where, why, when, and how it happens, and who, or what, will be affected. With this understanding, managers and decision makers can develop ways to safeguard our natural resources and our communities, including our people and infrastructure, and help address future change.
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