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Model Updates Active

By Landslide Hazards June 27, 2018

Updates to the models for post-fire debris-flows.

June 2016 - Post-fire debris-flow likelihood estimates are now made with an updated logistic regression model equation. Additional details concerning the new equation, model database, and improvements in model predictions from previous iterations of the likelihood model can be found here.

September 2015 - The analysis methods have been updated to now make calculations and output the results in the UTM NAD83 Coordinate System local to the burn area. This update serves two purposes. First, it allows dissemination of data to end-users in their native reference system. Second, it allows for improved accuracy in our calculations through better preservation of areas and lengths in the input data. This update is effective as of 09/10/2015 and will be a part of all future model runs.

 

Below are publications associated with this project.

Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

Early warning of post-fire debris-flow occurrence during intense rainfall has traditionally relied upon a library of regionally specific empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds. Development of this library and the calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds often require several years of monitoring local rainfall and hydrologic response to rainstorms, a time-consuming approach w
By
Natural Hazards, Landslide Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States

Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can generate dangerous flash floods and debris flows. To reduce public exposure to hazard, the U.S. Geological Survey produces post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments for select fires in the western United States. We use publicly available geospatial data describing basin morphology,
By
Natural Hazards, Landslide Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center
  • Overview

    Updates to the models for post-fire debris-flows.

    June 2016 - Post-fire debris-flow likelihood estimates are now made with an updated logistic regression model equation. Additional details concerning the new equation, model database, and improvements in model predictions from previous iterations of the likelihood model can be found here.

    September 2015 - The analysis methods have been updated to now make calculations and output the results in the UTM NAD83 Coordinate System local to the burn area. This update serves two purposes. First, it allows dissemination of data to end-users in their native reference system. Second, it allows for improved accuracy in our calculations through better preservation of areas and lengths in the input data. This update is effective as of 09/10/2015 and will be a part of all future model runs.

     

  • Publications

    Below are publications associated with this project.

    Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

    Early warning of post-fire debris-flow occurrence during intense rainfall has traditionally relied upon a library of regionally specific empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds. Development of this library and the calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds often require several years of monitoring local rainfall and hydrologic response to rainstorms, a time-consuming approach w
    By
    Natural Hazards, Landslide Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center

    Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States

    Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can generate dangerous flash floods and debris flows. To reduce public exposure to hazard, the U.S. Geological Survey produces post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments for select fires in the western United States. We use publicly available geospatial data describing basin morphology,
    By
    Natural Hazards, Landslide Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center