A modeled probable earthquake scenario based on the most comprehensive scientific research analysis done to understand the impacts and implications of a hypothetical but realistic 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault. Pairing robust science with state-of-the-art modeling and visualization tools makes ShakeOut an accessible and effective message, in scenario form, to enhance community preparedness and resilience to earthquakes.
The first public product of SAFRR (then the Multi-Hazard Demonstration Project (MHDP)) was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario, published in May 2008 and by November of that year becoming the centerpiece of the Nation's largest ever emergency response and public preparedness exercises as The Great Southern California ShakeOut.
The magnitude 7.8 earthquake scenario served as the scientifically credible basis of the largest earthquake drill in United States history involving over 5,000 emergency responders and disaster recovery agents and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. The ShakeOut Scenario described what would happen during and after a magnitude 7.8 on the southernmost 300 km of the San Andreas fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. An earthquake like this - large enough to cause strong shaking over much of southern California - is inevitable and understanding its impacts is an important step in preparing for the event.
The ShakeOut Scenario considered a range of effects from the direct physical impacts to the long-term, social, cultural, and economic consequences. The ShakeOut Scenario also identified factors that will determine whether the event would be a disaster or a catastrophe, that is, whether the event would disrupt southern California for a few years, or for decades. This unprecedented project brought together a diverse collaboration of more than 300 scientists, academics, engineers, industry professionals, emergency managers, and public servants.
The USGS and its partners deliver a number of resources and tools, including videos, maps, and animations that have been created to visually convey aspects of the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake and its impacts. These tools, all available at ShakeOut.org, enable emergency responders, government officials, scientists, and residents to identify the most likely damages and problems, and thus make the best possible decisions.
ShakeMaps, for instance, provide near-real-time maps of ground motion and shaking intensity following significant earthquakes. These maps are used by federal, state, and local organizations, both public and private, for post-earthquake response and recovery, public and scientific information, as well as for preparedness exercises and disaster planning.
Publications:
- Earthquake Spectra, May 2011
- Business Impacts and Planning: Special Report on ShakeOut impacts on employers and jobs across CA, June 2011
- ShakeOut Scenario analysis for a post-disaster recovery model, 2013
- The Great California ShakeOut video
ShakeOut Scenario Supplementary Reports:
- Older Reinforced Concrete Buildings
- Elevators
- Fire Following Earthquake
- Hazardous Materials
- HAZUS
- Hospitals
- Oil and Gas Pipelines
- Railway Network
- High-Rise Steel Buildings
- Analysis of Risk to Southern California Highway System
- Telecommunications
- Unreinforced Masonry (URM) Buildings
- Woodframe Buildings
Below are publications associated with this project.
Potential effects of a scenario earthquake on the economy of southern California: Intraregional commuter, worker, and earnings flow analysis
Potential effects of a scenario earthquake on the economy of southern California: Baseline county-level migration characteristics and trends 1995-2000 and 2001-2010
Potential effects of a scenario earthquake on the economy of southern California: Small business exposure and sensitivity analysis to a magnitude 7.8 earthquake
Potential effects of a scenario earthquake on the economy of southern California: Labor market exposure and sensitivity analysis to a magnitude 7.8 earthquake
The ShakeOut Scenario
The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario— A story that southern Californians are writing
- Overview
A modeled probable earthquake scenario based on the most comprehensive scientific research analysis done to understand the impacts and implications of a hypothetical but realistic 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault. Pairing robust science with state-of-the-art modeling and visualization tools makes ShakeOut an accessible and effective message, in scenario form, to enhance community preparedness and resilience to earthquakes.
The first public product of SAFRR (then the Multi-Hazard Demonstration Project (MHDP)) was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario, published in May 2008 and by November of that year becoming the centerpiece of the Nation's largest ever emergency response and public preparedness exercises as The Great Southern California ShakeOut.
The magnitude 7.8 earthquake scenario served as the scientifically credible basis of the largest earthquake drill in United States history involving over 5,000 emergency responders and disaster recovery agents and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. The ShakeOut Scenario described what would happen during and after a magnitude 7.8 on the southernmost 300 km of the San Andreas fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. An earthquake like this - large enough to cause strong shaking over much of southern California - is inevitable and understanding its impacts is an important step in preparing for the event.
The ShakeOut Scenario considered a range of effects from the direct physical impacts to the long-term, social, cultural, and economic consequences. The ShakeOut Scenario also identified factors that will determine whether the event would be a disaster or a catastrophe, that is, whether the event would disrupt southern California for a few years, or for decades. This unprecedented project brought together a diverse collaboration of more than 300 scientists, academics, engineers, industry professionals, emergency managers, and public servants.
The USGS and its partners deliver a number of resources and tools, including videos, maps, and animations that have been created to visually convey aspects of the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake and its impacts. These tools, all available at ShakeOut.org, enable emergency responders, government officials, scientists, and residents to identify the most likely damages and problems, and thus make the best possible decisions.
ShakeMaps, for instance, provide near-real-time maps of ground motion and shaking intensity following significant earthquakes. These maps are used by federal, state, and local organizations, both public and private, for post-earthquake response and recovery, public and scientific information, as well as for preparedness exercises and disaster planning.
Publications:
- Earthquake Spectra, May 2011
- Business Impacts and Planning: Special Report on ShakeOut impacts on employers and jobs across CA, June 2011
- ShakeOut Scenario analysis for a post-disaster recovery model, 2013
- The Great California ShakeOut video
ShakeOut Scenario Supplementary Reports:
- Older Reinforced Concrete Buildings
- Elevators
- Fire Following Earthquake
- Hazardous Materials
- HAZUS
- Hospitals
- Oil and Gas Pipelines
- Railway Network
- High-Rise Steel Buildings
- Analysis of Risk to Southern California Highway System
- Telecommunications
- Unreinforced Masonry (URM) Buildings
- Woodframe Buildings
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Potential effects of a scenario earthquake on the economy of southern California: Intraregional commuter, worker, and earnings flow analysis
The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along tPotential effects of a scenario earthquake on the economy of southern California: Baseline county-level migration characteristics and trends 1995-2000 and 2001-2010
The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards. In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (Potential effects of a scenario earthquake on the economy of southern California: Small business exposure and sensitivity analysis to a magnitude 7.8 earthquake
The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along tPotential effects of a scenario earthquake on the economy of southern California: Labor market exposure and sensitivity analysis to a magnitude 7.8 earthquake
The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along tThe ShakeOut Scenario
This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut,The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario— A story that southern Californians are writing
The question is not if but when southern California will be hit by a major earthquake - one so damaging that it will permanently change lives and livelihoods in the region. How severe the changes will be depends on the actions that individuals, schools, businesses, organizations, communities, and governments take to get ready. To help prepare for this event, scientists of the U.S. Geological Surve