Adjusting particle-size distributions to account for aggregation in tephra-deposit model forecasts

Volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD) models are used to forecast tephra deposition during volcanic eruptions. Model accuracy is limited by the fact that fine-ash aggregates (clumps into clusters), thus altering patterns of deposition. In most models this is accounted for by ad hoc changes to model input, representing fine ash as aggregates with density ρ_agg, and a log-normal size distribution with median μ_agg and standard deviation σ_agg. Optimal values may vary between eruptions. To test the variance, we used the Ash3d tephra model to simulate four deposits: 18 May 1980 Mount St. Helens; 16–17 September 1992 Crater Peak (Mount Spurr); 17 June 1996 Ruapehu; and 23 March 2009 Mount Redoubt. In 192 simulations, we systematically varied μ_agg and σ_agg, holding ρ_agg constant at 600 kg m⁻³. We evaluated the fit using three indices that compare modeled versus measured (1) mass load at sample locations; (2) mass load versus distance along the dispersal axis; and (3) isomass area. For all deposits, under these inputs, the best-fit value of μ_agg ranged narrowly between  ∼  2.3 and 2.7φ (0.20–0.15 mm), despite large variations in erupted mass (0.25–50 Tg), plume height (8.5–25 km), mass fraction of fine (