Analysis of long-term trends in flow from a large spring complex in northern Florida

Nonparametric regression analysis of historic flow and rainfall data was used to estimate declining flows in a river draining a large spring complex in northern Florida, USA. The analysis indicated that flow declined by an estimated 23 percent from 1900 to 2009. The rate of decline appeared to increase over time, from about 0.8 cubic foot per second per year during the period from 1930-1970, to about 1.1 cubic feet per second per year over the period from 1970-2009. The estimated decline for the period prior to 1980 is consistent with evidence indicating groundwater withdrawals to the east of the study area have diverted groundwater that formerly flowed toward the Ichetucknee River under predevelopment conditions.