Changes in phosphorus concentration and flux from 2011 to 2023 in major U.S. tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes

Reducing phosphorus (P) flux to the Great Lakes is critical for improving water quality and controlling eutrophication. We used 13 water years (2011–2023) of U.S. Geological Survey data from 24 major U.S. tributaries (representing 47% of the U.S. Great Lakes watershed area) to evaluate temporal changes in orthophosphate (PO₄-P) and total P (TP) using Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season. We assessed actual and flow-normalized P concentrations and fluxes. Between 2011 and 2023, P concentrations and fluxes declined in many tributaries, although the extent and significance of these declines varied. Decreases were more common and statistically likely for TP than PO₄-P, and several high-loading watersheds had modest or non-significant changes. Flow-normalized PO₄-P:TP flux ratios increased in over half the tributaries, suggesting that even where P reductions occurred, reductions in the more bioavailable P fraction were proportionally smaller. Actual P fluxes were strongly correlated with streamflow, and year-to-year variability in actual fluxes was, on average, three times greater than variability related to trends in flow-normalized fluxes. This underscores the role of hydrology in modulating P export and highlights how changing precipitation and runoff patterns can obscure or counteract management progress. Spring accounted for the largest share of annual P flux in most tributaries, though many showed declining spring contributions. Our basin-wide analysis reveals that while management efforts may have yielded progress in reducing TP in many watersheds, additional strategies would be needed to address PO₄-P reductions and account for changing hydrology, especially in high-contributing watersheds.