Design of future surveys

This brief chapter addresses two related issues: how effort should be allocated to different parts of the sampling plan and, given optimal allocation, how large a sample will be required to achieve the PRISM accuracy target. Simulations based on data collected to date showed that 2 plots per cluster on rapid surveys, 2 intensive camps per field crew-year, 2-4 intensive plots per intensive camp, and 2-3 rapid surveys per intensive plot is the most efficient allocation of resources. Using this design, we investigated how crew-years should be allocated to each region in order to meet the PRISM accuracy target most efficiently. The analysis indicated that 40-50 crew-years would achieve the accuracy target for 18-24 of the 26 species breeding widely in the Arctic. This analysis was based on assuming that two rounds of surveys were conducted and that a 50% decline occurred between them. We discuss the complexity of making these estimates and why they should be viewed as first approximations.