Evaluation of statistical and rainfall-runoff models for predicting historical daily streamflow time series in the Des Moines and Iowa River watersheds
Daily records of streamflow are essential to understanding hydrologic systems and managing the interactions between human and natural systems. Many watersheds and locations lack streamgages to provide accurate and reliable records of daily streamflow. In such ungaged watersheds, statistical tools and rainfall-runoff models are used to estimate daily streamflow. Previous work compared 19 different techniques for predicting daily streamflow records in the southeastern United States. Here, five of the better-performing methods are compared in a different hydroclimatic region of the United States, in Iowa. The methods fall into three classes: (1) drainage-area ratio methods, (2) nonlinear spatial interpolations using flow duration curves, and (3) mechanistic rainfall-runoff models. The first two classes are each applied with nearest-neighbor and map-correlated index streamgages. Using a threefold validation and robust rank-based evaluation, the methods are assessed for overall goodness of fit of the hydrograph of daily streamflow, the ability to reproduce a daily, no-fail storage-yield curve, and the ability to reproduce key streamflow statistics. As in the Southeast study, a nonlinear spatial interpolation of daily streamflow using flow duration curves is found to be a method with the best predictive accuracy. Comparisons with previous work in Iowa show that the accuracy of mechanistic models with at-site calibration is substantially degraded in the ungaged framework.
Citation Information
| Publication Year | 2015 |
|---|---|
| Title | Evaluation of statistical and rainfall-runoff models for predicting historical daily streamflow time series in the Des Moines and Iowa River watersheds |
| DOI | 10.3133/sir20155089 |
| Authors | William H. Farmer, Rodney R. Knight, David A. Eash, Kasey J. Hutchinson, S. Mike Linhart, Daniel E. Christiansen, Stacey A. Archfield, Thomas M. Over, Julie E. Kiang |
| Publication Type | Report |
| Publication Subtype | USGS Numbered Series |
| Series Title | Scientific Investigations Report |
| Series Number | 2015-5089 |
| Index ID | sir20155089 |
| Record Source | USGS Publications Warehouse |
| USGS Organization | Office of Surface Water |
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William H Farmer, Ph.D.
Acting Director, Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center
Research Physical Scientist
Daniel E. Christiansen
Supervisory Hydrologist, Science Coordinator
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William H Farmer, Ph.D.
Acting Director, Northeast Climate Adaptation Science CenterResearch Physical ScientistEmailPhoneDaniel E. Christiansen
Supervisory Hydrologist, Science CoordinatorEmailPhone