Geospatial data identify potentially restorable coastal wetland habitats in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Identifying areas with high restoration potential can guide investment and support management of coastal wetland habitats in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Restoration is a priority in the region since extensive degradation and alteration from anthropogenic activities reduced coastal wetlands to only a small fraction of historical extent. Our study evaluated the likelihood of coastal wetland restoration success using multi-criteria geospatial modeling in six restoration assessments focused on the U.S. portion of the Great Lakes coastline. We incorporated parameters into our model that positively influenced restoration potential, such as hydroperiod, wetland soil types, surface water flow networks, and conservation and recreation status of the land. Alternatively, factors that negatively influenced restoration potential were the proportion of impervious surfaces and other important human land uses of permeable soils. The resulting composite restoration index and online interfaces provide valuable decision-support tools for ecosystem managers. The modeled amount of restorable coastal wetland habitat and the characteristics of areas identified as restorable varied among the six restoration assessments, with the highest restoration index values occurring predominantly in low-elevation areas with frequent inundation that were near flowlines hydrologically connected to the Great Lakes. Conversely, areas with a greater proportion of impervious surfaces and anthropogenic land uses (e.g., golf courses) received low restoration index values. Our analysis highlights the heterogeneity of coastal wetland restoration potential throughout the Great Lakes, as well as the need for careful consideration of natural and anthropogenic land use factors to execute successful coastal wetland restoration.