The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks.
The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of the Earth’s surface that the fault rupture and shaking will activate.
|Title||The HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards|
|Publication Subtype||USGS Numbered Series|
|Series Title||Scientific Investigations Report|
|Record Source||USGS Publications Warehouse|
|USGS Organization||Earthquake Science Center|
Data from Earthquake-Induced Landslide Hazards for a M7.0 Scenario Earthquake on the Hayward Fault
Liquefaction potential as a result of HayWired earthquake scenario mainshock (April 18, 2018) shaking in Alameda and Santa Clara counties, San Francisco Bay area, California
Point locations for earthquakes M2.5 and greater in a two-year aftershock sequence resulting from the HayWired scenario earthquake mainshock (4/18/2018) in the San Francisco Bay area, California
Anne M Wein, Ph.D.
Data from Earthquake-Induced Landslide Hazards for a M7.0 Scenario Earthquake on the Hayward FaultThese maps show the potential of widespread slope failures, in terms of landslide probabilities and displacement, triggered by a M7.0 scenario earthquake on the Hayward Fault in the 10-county area surrounding the San Francisco Bay region, California. The likelihood of landsliding was evaluated using an equation developed by Jibson and others (2000) that estimates landslide probability as a functio
Liquefaction potential as a result of HayWired earthquake scenario mainshock (April 18, 2018) shaking in Alameda and Santa Clara counties, San Francisco Bay area, CaliforniaThese data are a geospatial representation of liquefaction potential for the HayWired earthquake scenario, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault on April 18, 2018, with an epicenter in the city of Oakland, CA. These data are the product of an analysis that created a detailed liquefaction probability map covering the northern Santa Clara County and western Alameda County areas.
Point locations for earthquakes M2.5 and greater in a two-year aftershock sequence resulting from the HayWired scenario earthquake mainshock (4/18/2018) in the San Francisco Bay area, CaliforniaThis dataset represents the spatial locations of all modeled aftershocks magnitude 2.5 and greater resulting from the HayWired M7.0 mainshock occurring on April 18, 2018 along the Hayward Fault. The date/time, horizontal and vertical location, and sequence position is provided for each aftershock. The spatial extent covers 24 counties in whole or in part, corresponding to the modeled shaking exten
Anne M Wein, Ph.D.