Internal tides can provide thermal refugia that will buffer some coral reefs from future global warming
Observations show ocean temperatures are rising due to climate change, resulting in a fivefold increase in the incidence of regional-scale coral bleaching events since the 1980s; analyses based on global climate models forecast bleaching will become an annual event for most of the world’s coral reefs within 30–50 yr. Internal waves at tidal frequencies can regularly flush reefs with cooler waters, buffering the thermal stress from rising sea-surface temperatures. Here we present the first global maps of the effects these processes have on bleaching projections for three IPCC-AR5 emissions scenarios. Incorporating semidiurnal temperature fluctuations into the projected water temperatures at depth creates a delay in the timing of annual severe bleaching ≥ 10 yr (≥ 20 yr) for 38% (9%), 15% (1%), and 1% (0%) of coral reef sites for the low, moderate, and high emission scenarios, respectively; regional averages can reach twice as high. These cooling effects are greatest later in twenty-first century for the moderate emission scenarios, and around the middle twenty-first century for the highest emission scenario. Our results demonstrate how these effects could delay bleaching for corals, providing thermal refugia. Identification of such areas could be a factor for the selection of coral reef marine protected areas.
Citation Information
| Publication Year | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Title | Internal tides can provide thermal refugia that will buffer some coral reefs from future global warming |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41598-020-70372-9 |
| Authors | Curt D. Storlazzi, Olivia Cheriton, Ruben Van Hooidonk, Zhongxiang Zhao, Russell E. Brainard |
| Publication Type | Article |
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Series Title | Scientific Reports |
| Index ID | 70211937 |
| Record Source | USGS Publications Warehouse |
| USGS Organization | Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center |
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Modeled effects of depth and semidiurnal temperature fluctuations on predictions of year that coral reef locations reach annual severe bleaching for various global climate model projections
Using global climate model projections of sea-surface temperature at coral reef sites, we modeled the effects of depth and exposure to semidiurnal temperature fluctuations to examine how these effects may alter the projected year of annual severe bleaching for coral reef sites globally. Here we present the first global maps of the effects these processes have on bleaching projections for three IPC - Connect