Migration water temperature and heat stress assessments in western Alaska Chinook salmon overlapping the 2019 heatwave

Chinook salmon population declines span their geographic range with climate hypothesized as a major driver. Concerns of warming freshwater temperatures in their northern range gained urgency during 2019 when a heatwave coincided with premature mortality. This study examined heat stress during the 2019 heatwave compared to subsequent years and described water temperatures in western Alaska to understand the degree to which freshwater temperatures may be a stressor. Heat stress was prevalent among Chinook salmon captured in the 2019 heatwave (Kuskokwim tributaries: 90% in Kwethluk and 63% Takotna river), and variable in subsequent years (∼8% to 60% across Kuskokwim tributaries and Norton Sound rivers). A review of water temperature data indicated that potentially stressful temperatures (≥18 °C) were most common and prolonged in the Yukon River, moderately common and prolonged in the Kuskokwim River, and relatively rare in the Norton Sound region. Water temperatures in 2019 broke several records for overall maximum and frequency of temperatures ≥ 18 °C. Migration water temperatures and heat stress in northern Pacific salmon habitats vary more widely than previously recognized (up to 25 °C).