Modeling ash dispersal from future eruptions of Taupo supervolcano

Hazard analysis at caldera volcanoes is challenging due to the wide range of eruptive and environmental conditions that can plausibly occur during renewed activity. Taupo volcano, New Zealand, is a frequently active and productive rhyolitic caldera volcano that has hosted the world's youngest known supereruption and numerous smaller explosive events. To assess ashfall hazard from future eruptions, we have simulated atmospheric ash dispersal using the Ash3d model. We consider five eruption scenarios spanning magma volumes of 0.1–500 km³ and investigate the main factors governing ash dispersal in modern atmospheric conditions. Our results are examined in the context of regional synoptic weather patterns (Kidson types) that provide a framework for assessing the variability of ashfall distribution in different wind fields. For the smallest eruptions (~0.1‐km³ magma), ashfall thicknesses >1 cm are largely confined to the central North Island, with dispersal controlled by day‐to‐day weather and the dominance of westerly winds. With increasing eruptive volume (1–5‐km³ magma), ashfall thicknesses >1 cm would likely reach major population centers throughout the North Island. Dispersal is less dependent on weather patterns as the formation of a radially expanding umbrella cloud forces ash upwind or crosswind, although strong stratospheric winds significantly restrict umbrella spreading. For large eruptions (50–500‐km³ magma), powerful expansion of the umbrella cloud results in widespread ashfall at damaging thicknesses (>10 cm) across most of the North Island and top of the South Island. Synoptic climatology may prove a useful additional technique for long‐term hazard planning at caldera volcanoes.