New satellite observations and rainfall forecasts help provide earlier warning of African drought

The poor nations of sub-Saharan Africa face a constant struggle against weather and climate. The outcome of that struggle profoundly influences these nations’ economic growth, health, and social stability. Advances in climate monitoring and forecasting can help African nations and international aid organizations reduce the impact of these natural hazards. Satellites play a crucial role in this effort as they enable scientists to track climate conditions over data-sparse land and ocean areas. In this article, I discuss how a multi-organizational group of scientists use satellite data and statistical forecasts to provide earlier and more accurate early warning of potential drought conditions. We frame our discussion in a specific, timely context—that of probable dramatic food insecurity in Zimbabwe, Eastern Kenya, and Somalia. As this article was being prepared in mid-December, very warm conditions in the Indian Ocean appear likely to produce below normal December–January–February rainfall in both Eastern Kenya/Somalia and Zimbabwe.