Potential effects of projected pumping scenarios on future water-table elevations near Kirtland Air Force Base in Albuquerque, New Mexico

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Air Force Civil Engineer Center, simulated different groundwater pumping scenarios from 2016 to 2050 to determine the potential future changes in groundwater levels in areas around the Kirtland Air Force Base Bulk Fuels Facility and an ethylene dibromide (EDB) plume. Projections of water supply and demand created by the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority were used to develop the future groundwater pumping scenarios used as inputs for a refined local-scale model within the updated Middle Rio Grande Basin regional model.

The simulated water-table elevations in model cells that contain the EDB plume in the medium demand and medium supply scenario rose 29 feet (ft) until 2035, then remained within 10 ft of that elevation through 2050, whereas the water-table elevations in the high demand and low supply scenario rose about 26 ft until 2035 and then decreased by more than 10 ft. Simulated water-table elevations in the low demand and high supply scenario continued to rise throughout most of the future simulation period and peaked at about 44 ft over the 2016 water-table elevation. All of the scenarios ended the future simulation period with higher simulated water-table elevations than at the beginning of the future simulation period. Simulations that represented the potentially highest and lowest volume of groundwater pumping near the EDB plume by adjusting the spatial distribution of pumping had similar simulated water-table elevations as the nonadjusted scenarios, with maximum water-table elevation changes that only differed by about 2 ft from the nonadjusted scenarios. Consideration should be taken when using these model results to inform decisions because the model results are subject to uncertainty from many different sources, including uncertainty in the future pumping scenarios as well as the model itself because of the simplification of the hydrogeologic system.