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Predicting the initial spread of novel Asian origin influenza A viruses in the continental USA by wild waterfowl

February 6, 2019

Using data on waterfowl band recoveries, we identified spatially explicit hotspots of concentrated waterfowl movement to predict occurrence and spatial spread of a novel influenza A virus (clade 2.3.4.4) introduced from Asia by waterfowl from an initial outbreak in North America in November 2014. In response to the outbreak, the hotspots of waterfowl movement were used to help guide sampling for clade 2.3.4.4 viruses in waterfowl as an early warning for the US poultry industry during the outbreak . After surveillance sampling of waterfowl, we tested whether there was greater detection of clade 2.3.4.4 viruses inside hotspots. We found that hotspots defined using kernel density estimates of waterfowl band recoveries worked well in predicting areas with higher prevalence of the viruses in waterfowl. This approach exemplifies the value of ecological knowledge in predicting risk to agricultural security.

Citation Information

Publication Year 2019
Title Predicting the initial spread of novel Asian origin influenza A viruses in the continental USA by wild waterfowl
DOI 10.1111/tbed.13070
Authors Alan B. Franklin, Sarah N. Bevins, Jeremy W. Ellis, Ryan S. Miller, Susan A. Shriner, J. Jeffrey Root, Daniel P. Walsh, Thomas J. DeLiberto
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
Series Number
Index ID 70202020
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization National Wildlife Health Center

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