Preliminary assessment of aggradation potential in the North Fork Stillaguamish River downstream of the State Route 530 landslide near Oso, Washington

On March 22, 2014, the State Route 530 Landslide near Oso, Washington, traveled almost 2 kilometers (km), destroyed more than 40 structures, and impounded the North Fork Stillaguamish River to a depth of 8 meters (m) and volume of 3.3×10⁶ cubic meters (m³). The landslide killed 43 people. After overtopping and establishing a new channel through the landslide, the river incised into the landslide deposit over the course of 10 weeks draining the impoundment lake and mobilizing an estimated 280,000±56,000 m³ of predominantly sand-sized and finer sediment. During the first 4 weeks after the landslide, this eroded sediment caused downstream riverbed aggradation of 1–2 m within 1 km of the landslide and 0.4 m aggradation at Whitman Road Bridge, 3.5 km downstream. Winter high flows in 2014–15 were anticipated to mobilize an additional 220,000±44,000 m³ of sediment, potentially causing additional aggradation and exacerbating flood risk downstream of the landslide. Analysis of unit stream power and bed-material transport capacity along 35 km of the river corridor indicated that most fine-grained sediment will transport out of the North Fork Stillaguamish River, although some localized additional aggradation was possible. This new aggradation was not likely to exceed 0.1 m except in reaches within a few kilometers downstream of the landslide, where additional aggradation of up to 0.5 m is possible. Alternative river response scenarios, including continued mass wasting from the landslide scarp, major channel migration or avulsion, or the formation of large downstream wood jams, although unlikely, could result in reaches of significant local aggradation or channel change.