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Some considerations on the use of ecological models to predict species' geographic distributions

January 1, 2001

Peterson (2001) used Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) models to predict distribution patterns from Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. Evaluations of these models should consider inherent limitations of BBS data: (1) BBS methods may not sample species and habitats equally; (2) using BBS data for both model development and testing may overlook poor fit of some models; and (3) BBS data may not provide the desired spatial resolution or capture temporal changes in species distributions. The predictive value of GARP models requires additional study, especially comparisons with distribution patterns from independent data sets. When employed at appropriate temporal and geographic scales, GARP models show considerable promise for conservation biology applications but provide limited inferences concerning processes responsible for the observed patterns.

Publication Year 2001
Title Some considerations on the use of ecological models to predict species' geographic distributions
DOI 10.1093/condor/103.3.661
Authors Bruce G. Peterjohn
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Condor
Index ID 5224381
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Patuxent Wildlife Research Center