Trends and shifts in streamflow in Hawaii, 1913-2008
This study addresses a need to document changes in streamflow and base flow (groundwater discharge to streams) in Hawai'i during the past century. Statistically significant long-term (1913-2008) downward trends were detected (using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test) in low-streamflow and base-flow records. These long-term downward trends are likely related to a statistically significant downward shift around 1943 detected (using the nonparametric Pettitt test) in index records of streamflow and base flow. The downward shift corresponds to a decrease of 22% in median streamflow and a decrease of 23% in median base flow between the periods 1913-1943 and 1943-2008. The shift coincides with other local and regional factors, including a change from a positive to a negative phase in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, shifts in the direction of the trade winds over Hawai'i, and a reforestation programme. The detected shift and long-term trends reflect region-wide changes in climatic and land-cover factors. A weak pattern of downward trends in base flows during the period 1943-2008 may indicate a continued decrease in base flows after the 1943 shift. Downward trends were detected more commonly in base-flow records than in high-streamflow, peak-flow, and rainfall records. The decrease in base flow is likely related to a decrease in groundwater storage and recharge and therefore is a valuable indicator of decreasing water availability and watershed vulnerability to hydrologic changes. Whether the downward trends will continue is largely uncertain given the uncertainty in climate-change projections and watershed responses to changes.
Citation Information
Publication Year | 2013 |
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Title | Trends and shifts in streamflow in Hawaii, 1913-2008 |
DOI | 10.1002/hyp.9298 |
Authors | Maoya Bassiouni, Delwyn S. Oki |
Publication Type | Article |
Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
Series Title | Hydrological Processes |
Index ID | 70040116 |
Record Source | USGS Publications Warehouse |
USGS Organization | Pacific Islands Water Science Center |