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The value of marsh restoration for flood risk reduction in an urban estuary

March 21, 2024

The use of nature-based solutions (NBS) for coastal climate adaptation has broad and growing interest, but NBS are rarely assessed with the same rigor as traditional engineering solutions or with respect to future climate change scenarios. These gaps pose challenges for the use of NBS for climate adaptation. Here, we value the flood protection benefits of stakeholder-identified marsh restoration under current and future climate change within San Francisco Bay, a densely urbanized estuary, and specifically on the shores of San Mateo County, the county most vulnerable to future flooding in California. Marsh restoration provides a present value of $21 million which increases to over $100 million with 0.5 m of sea level rise (SLR), and to about $500 million with 1 m of SLR. There are hotspots within the county where marsh restoration delivers very high benefits for adaptation, which reach $9 million/hectare with likely future sea level and storm conditions. Today’s investments in nature and community resilience can result in increasing payoffs as climate change progresses and risk increases.

Publication Year 2024
Title The value of marsh restoration for flood risk reduction in an urban estuary
DOI 10.1038/s41598-024-57474-4
Authors Rae M. Taylor-Burns, Chris Lowrie, Babak Tehranirad, Jeremy Lowe, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Borja G. Reguero, Michael W. Beck
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Nature Climate Change
Index ID 70252436
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
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