Andrew Michael
Biography
Andy Michael has been a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earthquake Science Center in Menlo Park since 1986 where he combines observations of earthquake processes and statistical models to determine long-term and short-term earthquake probabilities, to evaluate proposed earthquake prediction methods, and to better understand how stress and structure function as part of the seismogenic process. A graduate of MIT (B.S., 1981) and Stanford University (M.S., 1983, Ph.D. 1986), he has authored over 90 papers and reports. He was the Editor-in-Chief of the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America from 2004 to 2010, has been on the society's Board of Directors since 2014, and is currently the Past President. In 2011, for that work, he received the Society's Distinguished Service award. His outreach efforts include founding the Earthquake Science Center web site (quake.usgs.gov which became part of earthquake.usgs.gov) to facilitate the rapid dissemination of earthquake information and a lecture and performance titled “The Music of Earthquakes,” which combines music and seismology and features “Earthquake Quartet #1,” his composition for voice, cello, trombone, and seismograms. He is one of the founders of a new online educational resource: The Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis.
He currently works on the USGS Earthquake Probabilities and Occurrence Project, the Induced Seismicity Project, the Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities, and is a member of the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council.
While this is the most complete listing of my publications, partial lists can also be found on Web of Science Scopus Google Scholar and ORCID.
If you do not have access to a publication, please email me.
Publications:
1. Toksoz, M. N., Shakal, A. F., and Michael, A. J. , 1978, Space time migration of earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault zone and seismic gaps, in Methodology for Identifying Seismic Gaps and Soon-To-Break Gaps, Isacks, B. L., Plafker, G., and Evernden, J. F., Editors, U.S.G.S. Open File Report 78-943, 829-856.
2. Toksoz, M. N., Shakal, A. F., and Michael, A. J. , 1979, Space-time migration of earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault Zone and seismic gaps, Pageoph, 117, 1258-1270.
3. Pulli, J. J., Stewart, R. R., Johnston, J. C., Tubman, K. M., and Michael, A. J. , 1980, Field investigation and fault plane solution of the Bath, Maine earthquake of April 18, 1979, Earthquake Notes, 51, 39-46.
4. Michael, A. J. , Gildea, S. P., and Pulli, J. J., 1982, A real-time digital seismic event detection and recording system for network applications, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 72, 2339-2348.
5. Michael, A. J. , and Toksoz, M. N., 1982, Earthquake swarms as a long-range precursor to large earthquakes in Turkey, Geophys. J. R. Astr. Soc., 68, 459-476.
6. Michael, A. J. , and Geller, R. J., 1984, Linear moment tensor inversion for shallow thrust earthquakes combining first-motion and surface wave data, J. Geophys. Res., 89, 1889-1898.
7. Michael, A. J. , 1984, Determination of stress from slip data: faults and folds, J. Geophys. Res., 89, 11,517-11526.
8. Park, S., and in alphabetical order Brome, I., Cunningham, P., Harris, R., Hess, T., Hodges, J., Kirkpatrick, D., Madden T., Mellen, M., Menoher, J., Michael, A. J. , Molnar, P., Murray, M., Olgaard, D., Standley P., Stock, J., Stork, C., and Wray, S. T., 1985, A geophysical study of Mesquite Valley: Nevada-California border, J. Geophys. Res., 90, 8685-8689.
9. Michael, A. J. , 1985, Regional stress and large earthquakes: an observational approach, Ph.D. thesis, Stanford University, 165 pages.
10. Michael, A. J. , 1987, The use of focal mechanisms to determine stress: a control study, J. Geophys. Res., 92, 357-368.
11. Michael, A. J., 1987, Stress rotation during the Coalinga aftershock sequence, J. Geophys. Res., 92, 7963-7979.
12. Hauksson, E., Jones, L., Davis, T., Hutton, K., Brady, G., Reasenberg, P., Michael, A. J. , Yerkes, R. , Williams, P., Reagor, G., Stover,C., Bent, A., Shakal, A., Bufe, C., Helmberger, D., Johnston, M., and Cranswick, E., 1988, The 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area, California, Science, 239, 1409-1412.
13. Michael, A. J., 1988, Effects of three-dimensional velocity structure on the seismicity of the 1984 Morgan Hill, CA aftershock sequence, Bull. Seis. Soc. of Am., 78, 1199-1221.
14. Michael, A. J., 1989, Spatial Patterns of aftershocks of shallow focus earthquakes in California and Implications for deep focus earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 5615-5626.
15. Nishioka, G. N., and Michael, A. J., 1989, A detailed study of the seismicity of the Middle Mountain zone at Parkfield, California, U.S.G.S. Open-File Report 89-546, 39 pages.
16. Staff of the U.S.G.S., 1990, The Loma Prieta, California earthquake: an anticipated event, Science, 247, 286-293.
17. Nishioka, G. N., and Michael, A. J., 1990, A detailed study of the seismicity of the Middle Mountain, CA zone, Bull. Seis. Soc. of Am.., 80, 577-588.
18. Editors: Plafker, G., and Galloway, J. P., Contributors: Bennet, M. J., Boore, D. M. , Borcherdt, R. D., Brown, W. M. III, Burford, R. O., Celebi M., Clark, M. M., Dietrich, J. H., Eberhart-Phillips, D. M. , Ellsworth, W. L., Hanks, T. C., Haugerud, R. A., Holzer, T. L., Johnston, M. J., Keefer, D. K., Kockelman, W. J., Lajoie, K. R., Lisowski, M., Michael, A. J. , Ponti, D. J., Prentice, C. S., Prescott, W. H., Reasenberg, P. A., Rymer, M. J., Savage, J. C., Schwartz, D. P., Sharp, R. V., Thenhaus, P. C., Tinsley, J. C. III, Ward, P. L., Wells, R. E., 1989, Lessons learned from the Loma Prieta, California earthquake of October 17, 1989, U.S.G.S. Circular 1045, 52 pages.
19. Michael, A. J., 1990, Energy constraints on kinematic models of oblique faulting: Loma Prieta versus Parkfield-Coalinga, Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 1453-1456.
20. Michael, A. J., Ellsworth, W. L., and Oppenheimer, D. H., 1990, Coseismic stress changes induced by the 1989 Loma Prieta, California earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 1441-1444.
21. Eberhart-Phillips, D., Labson, V. F., Stanley, W. D., Michael, A. J. , and Rodrigues, B., 1990, Preliminary velocity and resistivity models of the Loma Prieta earthquake region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 2035-2038.
22. Michael, A. J., 1991, Spatial variations in stress within the 1987 Whittier Narrows, California, aftershock sequence: new techniques and results, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 6303-6320.
23. Michael, A. J., and Eberhart-Phillips, D. M., 1991, Relationships between Fault Behavior, Subsurface Geology, and Three-Dimensional Velocity Models, Science, 253, 651-654.
24. Michael, A.J. 1992, Three's a crowd in California, Nature, 357, 111-112.
25. Michael, A.J., D. Oppenheimer, and P. Reasenberg, 1992, Preliminary seismological results, in "Special Issue: The Cape Mendocino Earthquakes of April 25-26, 1992", Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 23, 110-115.
26. Michael, A.J. , and J. Langbein, 1993, Parkfield: learning while waiting, EOS, 74, pages 145, 153-154.
27. Parkfield Working Group, 1993, Parkfield: First short-term earth- quake warning, EOS, 74, 152-153.
28. Eberhart-Phillips, D., and A.J. Michael, 1993, Three-dimensional velocity structure and seismicity in the Parkfield region, central California, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 15,737-15,758.
29. Hill, D.P., P.A. Reasenberg, A.J. Michael , W.J. Arabaz, G. Beroza, D. Brumbaugh, J.N. Brune, R. Castro, S. Davis, D. dePolo. W.L. Ellsworth, J. Gomberg, S. Harmsen, L. House, S.M. Jackson, M.J.S. Johnston, L. Jones, R. Keller, S. Malone, L. Munguia, S. Nava, J.C. Pechmann, A. Sanford, R.W. Simpson, R.B. Smith, M. Stark, M. Stickney, A. Vidal, S. Walter, V. Wong, J. Zollweg, 1993, Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake, Science, 260, 1617-1623.
30. Scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake Center, 1994, The magnitude 6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake of 17 January 1994, Science, 266, 389-387.
31. Michael, A.J., P. Reasenberg, P.H. Stauffer, and J.W. Hendley II, 1995, Quake forecasting - an emerging capability, USGS Fact Sheet 242-95, 2 pp.
32. Michael, A.J., L.M. Jones, 1995, A reevaluation of the seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, USGS Open-File Report 95-630, 24pp.
33. Michael, A.J., 1996, The evaluation of VLF guided waves as possible earthquake precursors, USGS Open-File Report 96-67, 29pp.
34. Michael, A.J., 1997, Testing prediction methods: earthquake clustering versus the Poisson model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 1891-1894.
35. Michael, A.J., and L.M. Jones, 1998, Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited, Bull. of the Seis. Soc. of Am., 88, 117-130.
36. Eberhart-Phillips, D. and A.J Michael, 1998, Seismotectonics of the Loma Prieta, California, region determined from three-dimensional Vp, Vp/Vs, and seismicity, Journ. of Geophys. Res., 103, 21,099-21,120.
37. Michael, A.J., 1999, How well can we predict earthquakes?, in Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal, an online debate edited by I. Main, athttp://www.nature.com/nature/debates/earthquake/equake_frameset.html, Nature Online.
38. Michael, A.J., 1999, Realistic predictions are they worthwhile?, in Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal, an online debate edited by I. Main, athttp://www.nature.com/nature/debates/earthquake/equake_frameset.html, Nature Online.
39. Bawden, G.W., A.J. Michael, and L.H. Kellogg, 1999, Evidence for a blind strike-slip fault in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, Geology, 27, 601-604.
40. Michael, A.J., S.L. Ross, D.P. Schwartz, J.W. Hendley II, and Peter H. Stauffer, 1999, Understanding earthquake hazards in the San Francisco Bay Region: Major quake likely to strike between 2000 and 2030, USGS Fact Sheet 152-99, 4pp.
41. Jones, A., A. Michael, B. Simpson, S. Jacob, and D. Oppenheimer, 2000, Rapid distribution of earthquake information for everybody, Seis. Res. Lett., 71, 355-358.
42. Michael, A.J., and D. Eberhart-Phillips, 2000, The Loma Prieta aftershocks: heterogeneous stress or fault normal compression?, Proceedings of the 3rd Conference on Tectonic Problems of the San Andreas Fault System, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 237-251.
43. Li, S-L., X-K Zhang, W.D. Mooney, X-L. Lai, A.J. Michael, Y-H. Duan, 2002, Structures and earthquake-generating faults in the Jiashi region, NW China, preliminary results, Chinese J. of Geophysics, 45, 72-77. Also, in Chinese in Acta Geophysica Sinica pages 76-82.
44. Michael, A.J., S.L. Ross, H.D. Stenner, 2002, Displaced rocks, strong motion and the mechanics of shallow faulting associated with the Hector Mine, California, earthquake, Bull. Seis. Soc. of Am., 92, 1561-1569.
45. Participants of The Workshop on Effective Hazard Warnings, 2002, Improving the effectiveness of the homeland security advisory system, http://partnershipforpublicwarning.org, 14 pp.
46. Participants of The Workshop on Effective Hazard Warnings, 2002, Developing a unified all-hazard public warning system, PPW Report 2002-02, http://partnershipforpublicwarning.org, 47 pp.
47. Michael, A.J., 2003, A scientist’s view of warning, International Association of Emergency Managers Newsletter, v. 20, 13-14.
48. Michael, A.J., S.L. Ross, F.W. Simpson, M.L. Zoback, D.P. Schwartz, M.L. Blanpied , 2003, Understanding earthquake hazards in the San Francisco Bay Region: Is a powerful quake likely to strike in the next 30 years?, USGS Fact Sheet 039-03, 4pp.
49. Ben-Zion, Y., Z. Peng, D. Okaya, L. Seeber, J. G. Armbruster, N. Ozer, A. J. Michael, S. Baris, and M. Aktar, 2003, A shallow fault zone structure illuminated by trapped waves in the Karadere-Duzce branch of the North Anatolian Fault, western Turkey, Geophys. J. Int., 152, 699-717, doi: 10.1046/j.1365-246X.2003.01870.x.
50. Michael, A.J., N. Field, A. Frankel, J. Gomberg, and K. Shedlock, 2003, USGS and Partners: Approaches to Estimating Earthquake Probabilities, in Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction, ed. F. Mulargia and R.J. Geller, Kluwer, 159-175.
51. Michael, A.J., N. Field, A. Frankel, J. Gomberg, and K. Shedlock, 2003, USGS and Partners: Earthquake Probability Research Directions, in Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction, ed. F. Mulargia and R.J. Geller, Kluwer, 181-185.
52. Partnership for Public Warning, 2003, A national strategy for integrated public warning policy and capability, PPW Report 2003-01, http://partnershipforpublicwarning.org, 44 pp.
53. Peng, Z., Ben-Zion, Y. Michael, A.J., and Zhu, L., 2003, Quantitative analysis of seismic fault zone waves in the rupture zone of the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake: evidence for a shallow trapping structure, Geophys. Jour. Int., 155, 1021–1041.doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2003.02109.x.
54. Kastrup, U., M.L. Zoback, N. Deichmann, K. Evans, D. Giardini, and A.J. Michael, 2004, Stress field variations in the Swiss alps and the northern Alpine foreland derived from inversion of fault plane solutions, J. of Geophys. Res., 109, B01402, doi:1029/2003/JB002550.
55. Hardebeck, J.L., and A.J. Michael, 2004, Stress orientations at intermediate angles to the San Andreas fault, California, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B11303, doi: 10.1029/2004JB003239.
56. Eberhart-Phillips, D. and A.J Michael, 2004, Seismotectonics of the Loma Prieta, California, region determined from three-dimensional Vp, Vp/Vs, and seismicity, in The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 – Geologic Setting and Crustal Structure, ed. R.E. Wells, USGS Prof. Pap. 1550-E, 165-188.
57. Manaker, D.M., A.J. Michael, and R. Bürgmann, 2005, Subsurface structure and mechanics of the Calaveras-Hayward fault stepover from three-dimensional Vp and seismicity, San Francisco Bay region, California, Bull. Seis. Soc. of Am., 95, 446-470, doi: 10.1785/0120020202 .
58. Bakun, W.H., B. Aagaard, B. Dost, W.L. Ellsworth, J.L. Hardebeck, R.A. Harris, C. Ji, M.J.S. Johnston, J. Langbein, J.J. Lienkaemper, A.J. Michael, J.R. Murray, R.M. Nadeau, P.A. Reasenberg, M.S. Reichle, E.A. Roeloffs, A. Shakal, R.W. Simpson, and F. Waldhauser, 2005, Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake, Nature, 437, 969-974, doi:10.1038/nature04067.
59. Michael, A.J., 2005, Viscoelasticity, postseismic slip, fault interactions, and the recurrence of large earthquakes, Bull. Seis. Soc. of Am., 95, 1594-1603, doi 10.1785/0120030208
60. Thurber, C., H. Zhang, F. Waldhauser, J. Hardebeck, A.J. Michael, and D. Eberhart-Phillips, 2006, Three-dimensional compressional wavespeed model, earthquake relocations, and focal mechanisms for the Parkfield, California, region, Bull. Seis. Soc. of Am., 96, S38-S49, doi 10.1785/0120050825.
61. Hardebeck, J.L, and A.J. Michael, 2006, Damped regional-scale stress inversions: methodology and examples for southern California and the Coalinga aftershock sequence, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B11310, doi:10.1029/2005JB004144.
62. Hardebeck, J.L., A.J. Michael, and T.M. Brocher, 2007, Seismic velocity structure and seismotectonics of the eastern San Francisco Bay region, California, Bull. Seis. Soc. of Am., 97, 826-842, doi 10.1785/0120060032.
63. Hardebeck, J.L., K.R. Felzer, and A.J. Michael, 2008, Improved tests reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant, J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2007JB005410.
64. Michael, A.J., 2009, BSSA: worth thinking about, 2009, Seismolological Research Letters, 80, 405-408.
65. Michael, A.J., and S. Wiemer, 2010, CORSSA: the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-39071657. Available at http://www.corssa.org.
66. Michael, A.J., 2011, Earthquake sounds, in Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics, Seismology, ed. Harsh Gupta, Springer, 188-191.
67. Zechar, J.D., J.L. Hardebeck, A.J. Michael, M. Naylor, S. Steacy, S. Wiemer, J. Zhuang, and the CORSSA Working Group, 2011, “Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, Seismological Research Letters, 82, 686-690.
68. Michael, A. J., 2011, Random variability explains apparent global clustering of large earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L21301, doi:10.1029/2011GL049443.
69. Kilb, D., Z. Peng, D. Simpson, D., A.J. Michael, M. Fisher, and D. Rorhlick, 2012, Listen, Watch, Learn: SeisSound Video products, Seismological Research Letters, 83, 281-286, doi: 10.1785/gssrl.83.2.281.
70. Michael, A.J., 2012, Do aftershock probabilities decay with time?, Seismological Research Letters, 83, 630-632, doi: 10.1785/0220120061.
71. Michael, A.J., 2012, Fundamental Questions of Earthquake Statistics, Source Behavior, and the Estimation of Earthquake Probabilities From Possible Foreshocks, Bull. Seis. Soc. of Am., 102, 2547-2562, doi: 10.1785/0120090184.
72. Tormann, T., S. Wiemer, S. Metzger, A. Michael, and J.L. Hardebeck, 2013, Size distribution of Parkfield’s microearthquakes reflects changes in surface creep rate, Geophys. Journ. Int., 193, 1474-1478, doi:10.1093/gji/ggt093.
73. Llenos, A.L., and A.J. Michael, 2013, Modeling Earthquake Rate Changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas: Possible Signatures of Induced Seismicity, Bull. Seismol. Soc. of Am., 103, 2850-2861, doi:10.1785/0120130017
74. Michael, A.J., 2013, The Music of Earthquakes and Earthquake Quartet #1, For the Book “S.T.R.H.” Accompanying Konrad Smoleński’s installation S.T.R.H, ed. Kamila Wielebska, Łaźnia Centre for Contemporary Art, Gdańsk,Poland, p. 52-77, in English and Polish, ISBN 978-83-61646-8.
75. Field, E.H., Biasi, G.P., Bird, P., Dawson, T.E., Felzer, K.R., Jackson, D.D., Johnson, K.M., Jordan, T.H., Madden, C., Michael, A.J., Milner, K.R., Page, M.T., Parsons, T., Powers, P.M., Shaw, B.E., Thatcher, W.R., Weldon, R.J., II, and Zeng, Y., 2013, Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3)—The time-independent model: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013–1165, 97 p., California Geological Survey Special Report 228, and Southern California Earthquake Center Publication 1792, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/.
76. Michael, A.J., 2014, How complete is the ISC-GEM global earthquake catalog?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. of Am., 104, 1829-1837, doi: 10.1785/0120130227.
77. Field, E.H., Biasi, G.P., Bird, P., Dawson, T.E., Felzer, K.R., Jackson, D.D., Johnson, K.M., Jordan, T.H., Madden, C., Michael, A.J., Milner, K.R., Page, M.T., Parsons, T., Powers, P.M., Shaw, B.E., Thatcher, W.R., Weldon, R.J., II, and Zeng, Y., 2014, Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3)—The time-independent model, Bull. Seismol. Soc. of Am., 104, 1122-1180, doi:10.1785/0120130164
78. Jordan, T.H., W. Marzocchi, A.J. Michael, M.C. Gerstenberger, 2014, Operational Earthquake Forecasting Can Enhance Earthquake Preparedness, Seismol. Res. Lett., 85, 955-959, doi:10.1785/0220140143.
79. Felzer, K.R, M.T. Page, and A.J. Michael, 2015, Artificial seismic acceleration, Nature Geoscience, 8, 82-83 plus 9 pages of supplementary material.
80. Field, E.H., Biasi, G.P., Bird, P., Dawson, T.E., Felzer, K.R., Jackson, D.D., Johnson, K.M., Jordan, T.H., Madden, C., Michael, A.J., Milner, K.R., Page, M.T., Parsons, T., Powers, P.M., Shaw, B.E., Thatcher, W.R., Weldon, R.J., II, and Zeng, Y., 2015, Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, April 2015, v. 105, p. 511-543, First published on March 10, 2015, doi:10.1785/0120140093
81. Petersen, M.D., Mueller, C.S., Moschetti, M.P., Hoover, S.M., Rubinstein, J.L., Llenos, A.L., Michael, A.J., Ellsworth, W.L., McGarr, A.F., Holland, A.A., and Anderson, J.G., 2015, Incorporating induced seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model—Results of 2014 workshop and sensitivity studies: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2015–1070, 69 pp., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20151070.
82. Ellsworth, W. L., A. L. Llenos, A. F. McGarr, A. J. Michael, J. L. Rubinstein, C. S. Mueller, M. D. Petersen, and E. Calais, Increasing seismicity in the U. S. Midcontinent: Implications for earthquake hazard, The Leading Edge, 34, 6(2015), 618-626.
83. Field, E.H., T.H. Jordan, L.M. Jones, A.J. Michael, M.L. Blanpied, and Operational Earthquake Forecasting Workshop Participants, 2016, The Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting, Seismol. Res. Lett., 87, 313-322, doi: 10.1785/0220150174
84. Petersen, M.D., Mueller, C.S., Moschetti, M.P., Hoover, S.M., Llenos, A.L., Ellsworth, W.L., Michael, A.J., Rubinstein, J.L., McGarr, A.F., and Rukstales, K.S., 2016, 2016 One-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2016–1035, 52 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20161035.
85. Petersen, M.D., Muller, C.S., Moschetti, M.P., Hoover, S.M., Llenos, A.L., Ellsworth, W.L., Michael, A.J., Rubinstein, J.L., McGarr, A.F., and Rukstales, K.S., 2016b, Seismic-Hazard Forecast for 2016 Including Induced and Natural Earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States: Seismological Research Letters, v. 87, no. 6, p. 1327-1341, at http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220160072.
86. Page, M.T., N. van der Elst, J. Hardebeck, K. Felzer, and A.J. Michael, 2016, Three ingredients for improved global forecasts: tectonic region, time-dependent catalog incompleteness, and intersequence variability, Bull. Seismol. Soc. of Am., 106, 2290-2301, doi: 10.1785/0120160073.
87. Llenos, A. L., and A. J. Michael, Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, Bull. Seismol. Soc. of Am., v. 106, 2045-2062, doi: 10.1785/0120150053.
88. Petersen, M. D., C. S. Mueller, M. P. Moschetti, S. M. Hoover, A. M. Shumway, D. E. McNamara, R. A. Williams, A. L. Llenos, W. L. Ellsworth, A. J. Michael, J. L. Rubinstein, A. F. McGarr, and K. S. Rukstales, 2017, 2017 One-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes, Seismol. Res. Lett., v. 88, 772-783 doi: 10.1785/0220170005.
89. Wells, R.E., R.J. Blakely, A.G. Wech, P.A. McCrory, and A.J. Michael, 2017, Cascadia subduction tremor muted by crustal faults, Geology, v. 45, 515-518, published online, April 3, 2017, doi:10.1130/G38835.1.
90. Llenos, A.L. and A.J. Michael, 2017, Forecasting the (Un)Productivity of the 2014 M6.0 South Napa Aftershock Sequence, Seismol. Res. Lett., 88, 1241-1251, doi: 10.1785/0220170050
91. Field, E. H., K. R. Milner, J. L. Hardebeck, M. T. Page, N. van der Elst, T. H. Jordan, A. J. Michael, B. E. Shaw, and M. J. Werner (2017). A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 107, 1049-1081 doi:10.1785/0120160173.
92. Field, E. H., T. H. Jordan, M. T. Page, K. R. Milner, B. E. Shaw, T. E. Dawson, G. P. Biasi, T. Parsons, J. L. Hardebeck, A. J. Michael, R. J. Weldon, P. M. Powers, K. M. Johnson, Y. Zeng, K. R. Felzer, N. v. d. Elst, C. Madden, R. Arrowsmith, M. J. Werner, and W. R. Thatcher (2017). A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), Seism. Res. Lett., 88, 1259-1267 doi:10.1785/0220170045.
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Currently, an aftershock sequence is ongoing in Alaska after the magnitude 7.0 Anchorage earthquake of November 30, 2018. Using two scenarios, determined with observations as of December 14, 2018, this report estimates that it will take between 2.5 years and 3 decades before the rate of aftershocks decays to the rate of earthquakes that were...
Michael, Andrew J. Updated California aftershock parameters
Reasenberg and Jones (1989) introduced a statistical model for aftershock rate following a mainshock along with estimates of “generic” California parameter values based on past aftershock sequences. The Reasenberg and Jones (1989) model has been used for decades to issue aftershock forecasts following M≥5">M≥5...
Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Page, Morgan T.; Van Der Elst, Nicholas Preface to the Focus Section on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP): New results and future directions
The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP; Jordan, 2006) carries out fully prospective tests of earthquake forecasts, using fixed and standardized statistical tests and authoritative data sets, to assess the predictive skill of forecast models and to make objective comparisons between models. CSEP conducts prospective...
Michael, Andrew J.; Werner, Maximillian J. 2018 one‐year seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes
This article describes the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 2018 one‐year probabilistic seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. For consistency, the updated 2018 forecast is developed using the same probabilistic seismicity‐based methodology as applied in the two previous forecasts....
Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Williams, Robert A.; Shumway, Allison; Powers, Peter M.; Earle, Paul S.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Norbeck, Jack; Cochran, Elizabeth S. Forecasting the (un)productivity of the 2014 M 6.0 South Napa aftershock sequence
The 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa mainshock produced fewer aftershocks than expected for a California earthquake of its magnitude. In the first 4.5 days, only 59 M≥1.8 aftershocks occurred, the largest of which was an M 3.9 that happened a little over two days after the mainshock. We investigate the aftershock...
Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J. A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐...
Field, Edward H.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Page, Morgan T.; Milner, Kevin R.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Dawson, Timothy E.; Biasi, Glenn; Parsons, Thomas E.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Weldon, Ray; Powers, Peter M.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Zeng, Yuehua; Bird, Peter; Felzer, Karen; van der Elst, Nicholas; Madden, Christopher; Arrowsmith, Ramon; Werner, Maximillan J.; Thatcher, Wayne R. A spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an operational earthquake forecast
We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF)....
Field, Edward H.; Milner, Kevin R.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Page, Morgan T.; van der Elst, Nicholas; Jordan, Thomas H.; Michael, Andrew J.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Werner, Maximillan J. 2017 one-year seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes
We produce the 2017 one-year seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one-year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model...
Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Shumway, Allison; McNamara, Daniel E.; Williams, Robert A.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S. Seismic‐hazard forecast for 2016 including induced and natural earthquakes in the central and eastern United States
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a one‐year (2016) probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for the central and eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes that are constructed with probabilistic methods using alternative data and inputs. This hazard assessment builds on our 2016...
Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S. Three ingredients for Improved global aftershock forecasts: Tectonic region, time-dependent catalog incompleteness, and inter-sequence variability
Following a large earthquake, seismic hazard can be orders of magnitude higher than the long‐term average as a result of aftershock triggering. Because of this heightened hazard, emergency managers and the public demand rapid, authoritative, and reliable aftershock forecasts. In the past, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aftershock forecasts...
Page, Morgan T.; Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Felzer, Karen; Michael, Andrew J. Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, southern California
The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea...
Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.