Ashton Wiens, Ph.D.
Ashton Wiens is a Mathematical Statistician with the USGS Geology, Energy & Minerals (GEM) Science Center in Reston, VA.
My present research in population ecology includes time series analysis using demographic and phenology modeling, population viability analysis, and the development of decision support tools. I serve as a lead analyst for the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat).
Professional Experience
USGS, Ecosystems mission area, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center (UMESC) Ecological sciences branch, 2020 – Present
NCAR, Institute for Mathematics Applied to the Geosciences 2018-2020
University of Colorado, Boulder; Graduate research assistant 2017-2020
Education and Certifications
University of Colorado; MS and PhD in applied mathematics, 2015-2020
University of Kansas; BS in mathematics, 2011-2015
Science and Products
North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Winter Abundance: Predicted Population Estimates (2022 and 2023)
The dataset is comprised of historical observations and predictions of winter colony counts at known sites for three bat species (little brown bat, Myotis lucifugus; tricolored bat, Perimyotis subflavus; and big brown bat, Eptesicus fuscus). The dataset consists of two separate but related data files in tabular format (comma-separated values [.csv]). Each data set consists of predicted winter coun
White-nose syndrome/Pseudogymnoascus destructans spatio-temporal predictions over North America between 2007 and 2030
This csv contains spatio-temporal predictions for the year of white-nose syndrome/Pseudogymnoascus destructans in support of the manuscript "Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030." Gaussian process models were fitted to monitoring data on the spread of white-nose syndrome in North America from 2007-2022. These models are used to make p
R code to fit Gaussian process models to white-nose syndrome/Pseudogymnoascus destructans monitoring data across North America from 2006-2022
This code supports the manuscript "Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030." The code is used to fit Gaussian process models to publicly accessible monitoring data on the spread of white-nose syndrome in North America. These models are used to make predictions on a fine spatial grid, giving a forecast (and hindcast) of the spread of whit
Bat demographic look up tables for BatTool R package
Demographic look up tables allow the translation of a population growth rate, which is estimable from count data, to a set of vital rates parameterizing the birth and survival processes of the population. These tables are used in the BatTool R package to produce realistic simulations of population abundance trajectories given a range of population growth rates.
Status and Trends of North American Bats Summer Occupancy Analysis 2010-2019 Data Release
This data release contains the results from the North American Bat Monitoring Program's report titled 'Status and Trends of North American Bats Summer Occupancy Analysis 2010-2019'. Specifically, these data include tabular data and geospatial data for the species-specific results related to the status and trends of 12 bat species at multiple spatial scales including: 10 km x 10 km grid cells, stat
In Support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-Bat Species Status Assessment: Winter Colony Count Analysis
Through the North American Bat Monitoring Program, Bat Conservation International and U.S Geological Survey (USGS) provided technical and science support to assistance in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Species Status Assessment ("SSA") for the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis), little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus), and tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus). USGS facilitated the SSA
In Support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-Bat Species Status Assessment: Predicted Wind Take Allocated To Hibernacula Each Year Under Current and Future Scenarios
Through the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat), United States Geological Survey (USGS) provided technical and science support to assist in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services' (USFWS) Species Status Assessment ('SSA") for the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis), little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus), and tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus). USGS facilitated the SSA data call,
In Support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-Bat Species Status Assessment: Summer Mobile Acoustic Transect Analysis
Through the North American Bat Monitoring Program, Bat Conservation International and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborated with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to provided technical and science support to assistance in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services' Species Status Assessment ("SSA") for the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis), little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus), and tri-co
BatTool: Projecting bat populations facing multiple stressors using a demographic model
Bats provide ecologically and agriculturally important ecosystem services but are currently experiencing population declines caused by multiple environmental stressors, including mortality from white-nose syndrome and wind energy development. Analyses of the current and future health and viability of these species may support conservation management decision making. Demographic modeling provides a
Authors
Ashton M. Wiens, Amber Schorg, Jennifer Szymanski, Wayne E. Thogmartin
Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030
White-nose syndrome has been decimating populations of several bat species since its first occurrence in the Northeastern United States in the winter 2006–2007. The spread of the disease has been monitored across the continent through the collaboration of many organizations. Inferring the rate of spread of the disease and predicting its arrival at new locations is critical when assessing the curre
Authors
Ashton M. Wiens, Wayne E. Thogmartin
Non-USGS Publications**
Wiens, A, Nychka, D, Kleiber, W. Modeling spatial data using local likelihood estimation and a Matérn to spatial autoregressive translation. Environmetrics. 2020; 31:e2652. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2652
Wiens, A., Kleiber, W., Nychka, D. et al. Nonrigid Registration Using Gaussian Processes and Local Likelihood Estimation. Math Geosci 53, 1319–1337 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-020-09917-7
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
BatTool
The BatTool R package provides functions implementing a demographic matrix model with associated Shiny graphical user interface.
EnergyStorageUQ R and JAGS code
The EnergyStorageUQ repository of R and JAGS code provides JAGS models and an R workflow for analyzing energy storage capacity of gas reservoirs using material balance methods embedded in statistical models. The code contains tools for a workflow that includes fitting models, making predictions with uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulation, and visualizing the resulting material balance relation
CO2assessment R package
The CO2assessment package provides R functions and a Shiny application for CO2 storage resource assessment using 2013 USGS National Assessment of Geologic Carbon Dioxide Storage Resources methodology. Tools to facilitate estimation of CO2 storage resources in geologic formations include volumetric and thermodynamic equations and Monte Carlo simulation. The set of input parameters define probabilit
BatTool R package
This R package was developed to help the USFWS understand the effects of wind turbine mortality and WNS on the Indiana bat. The model has been described in a peer-reviewd (and open access publication). The package includes both a GUI and command line interface. The GUI only works for Myotis spp., although the command line tool has been expanded for two other genera of bats: Lasiurus spp. and Pipis
Science and Products
North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Winter Abundance: Predicted Population Estimates (2022 and 2023)
The dataset is comprised of historical observations and predictions of winter colony counts at known sites for three bat species (little brown bat, Myotis lucifugus; tricolored bat, Perimyotis subflavus; and big brown bat, Eptesicus fuscus). The dataset consists of two separate but related data files in tabular format (comma-separated values [.csv]). Each data set consists of predicted winter coun
White-nose syndrome/Pseudogymnoascus destructans spatio-temporal predictions over North America between 2007 and 2030
This csv contains spatio-temporal predictions for the year of white-nose syndrome/Pseudogymnoascus destructans in support of the manuscript "Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030." Gaussian process models were fitted to monitoring data on the spread of white-nose syndrome in North America from 2007-2022. These models are used to make p
R code to fit Gaussian process models to white-nose syndrome/Pseudogymnoascus destructans monitoring data across North America from 2006-2022
This code supports the manuscript "Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030." The code is used to fit Gaussian process models to publicly accessible monitoring data on the spread of white-nose syndrome in North America. These models are used to make predictions on a fine spatial grid, giving a forecast (and hindcast) of the spread of whit
Bat demographic look up tables for BatTool R package
Demographic look up tables allow the translation of a population growth rate, which is estimable from count data, to a set of vital rates parameterizing the birth and survival processes of the population. These tables are used in the BatTool R package to produce realistic simulations of population abundance trajectories given a range of population growth rates.
Status and Trends of North American Bats Summer Occupancy Analysis 2010-2019 Data Release
This data release contains the results from the North American Bat Monitoring Program's report titled 'Status and Trends of North American Bats Summer Occupancy Analysis 2010-2019'. Specifically, these data include tabular data and geospatial data for the species-specific results related to the status and trends of 12 bat species at multiple spatial scales including: 10 km x 10 km grid cells, stat
In Support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-Bat Species Status Assessment: Winter Colony Count Analysis
Through the North American Bat Monitoring Program, Bat Conservation International and U.S Geological Survey (USGS) provided technical and science support to assistance in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Species Status Assessment ("SSA") for the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis), little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus), and tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus). USGS facilitated the SSA
In Support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-Bat Species Status Assessment: Predicted Wind Take Allocated To Hibernacula Each Year Under Current and Future Scenarios
Through the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat), United States Geological Survey (USGS) provided technical and science support to assist in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services' (USFWS) Species Status Assessment ('SSA") for the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis), little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus), and tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus). USGS facilitated the SSA data call,
In Support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-Bat Species Status Assessment: Summer Mobile Acoustic Transect Analysis
Through the North American Bat Monitoring Program, Bat Conservation International and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborated with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to provided technical and science support to assistance in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services' Species Status Assessment ("SSA") for the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis), little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus), and tri-co
BatTool: Projecting bat populations facing multiple stressors using a demographic model
Bats provide ecologically and agriculturally important ecosystem services but are currently experiencing population declines caused by multiple environmental stressors, including mortality from white-nose syndrome and wind energy development. Analyses of the current and future health and viability of these species may support conservation management decision making. Demographic modeling provides a
Authors
Ashton M. Wiens, Amber Schorg, Jennifer Szymanski, Wayne E. Thogmartin
Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030
White-nose syndrome has been decimating populations of several bat species since its first occurrence in the Northeastern United States in the winter 2006–2007. The spread of the disease has been monitored across the continent through the collaboration of many organizations. Inferring the rate of spread of the disease and predicting its arrival at new locations is critical when assessing the curre
Authors
Ashton M. Wiens, Wayne E. Thogmartin
Non-USGS Publications**
Wiens, A, Nychka, D, Kleiber, W. Modeling spatial data using local likelihood estimation and a Matérn to spatial autoregressive translation. Environmetrics. 2020; 31:e2652. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2652
Wiens, A., Kleiber, W., Nychka, D. et al. Nonrigid Registration Using Gaussian Processes and Local Likelihood Estimation. Math Geosci 53, 1319–1337 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-020-09917-7
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
BatTool
The BatTool R package provides functions implementing a demographic matrix model with associated Shiny graphical user interface.
EnergyStorageUQ R and JAGS code
The EnergyStorageUQ repository of R and JAGS code provides JAGS models and an R workflow for analyzing energy storage capacity of gas reservoirs using material balance methods embedded in statistical models. The code contains tools for a workflow that includes fitting models, making predictions with uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulation, and visualizing the resulting material balance relation
CO2assessment R package
The CO2assessment package provides R functions and a Shiny application for CO2 storage resource assessment using 2013 USGS National Assessment of Geologic Carbon Dioxide Storage Resources methodology. Tools to facilitate estimation of CO2 storage resources in geologic formations include volumetric and thermodynamic equations and Monte Carlo simulation. The set of input parameters define probabilit
BatTool R package
This R package was developed to help the USFWS understand the effects of wind turbine mortality and WNS on the Indiana bat. The model has been described in a peer-reviewd (and open access publication). The package includes both a GUI and command line interface. The GUI only works for Myotis spp., although the command line tool has been expanded for two other genera of bats: Lasiurus spp. and Pipis