In Support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-Bat Species Status Assessment: Predicted Wind Take Allocated To Hibernacula Each Year Under Current and Future Scenarios
May 26, 2021
Through the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat), United States Geological Survey (USGS) provided technical and science support to assist in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services' (USFWS) Species Status Assessment ('SSA") for the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis), little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus), and tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus). USGS facilitated the SSA data call, provided data archival for repeatable and transparent analyses, provided statistical support to assess the historical, current, and future population status for each of the three species, and developed a demographic projection tool to evaluate future viability of each species under multiple threat scenarios.
These data represent the predicted bat take from wind energy allocated to each known winter hibernacula (at the resolution of the NABat grid cell) for each species, under several scenarios. These annual wind take predictions for each hibernacula and scenario were produced as inputs for a separate demographic scenario modeling effort (Wiens et al. 2021) in support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services' 3-Bat SSA. The predicted take allocated each year to each hibernacula was dependent on: 1) current or future distribution of wind energy on the landscape, 2) the curtailment status (none, summer only, summer and fall) of current wind energy facilities, 3) mortality rate (take/megawatt of rated capacity), under lower (25th percentile), mean, and upper (75th percentile) scenarios based on estimates provided by USFWS, 4) the predicted year of arrival of Pd (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) for each location based on 2 alternative models which used data from the county-level USGS pd surveillance map, 5) the species' proportion of all bat take in each USFWS region and Canadian province, based on estimates provided by USFWS (both before and after the arrival of Pd), 6) the mean and maximum migration distances of each species, 7) the last observed count of each hibernacula, 8) the distance between each hibernacula and wind energy location, and 9) an exponential migration kernel (distance decay function) based on the mean migration distance of each species. The total take at each wind energy grid cell was predicted based on items 1-5, and take was reallocated among hibernacula given items 6-9. Scenario levels included 4 time periods (current, 2030, 2040, 2050), 2 alternative pd spread models, 2 future wind energy development scenarios (high cost = low future build-out, low cost = high future build out) using models provided by the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), and 3 scenarios for take/megawatt estimates (mean, 25th percentile,75th percentile), for a total of 42 scenarios for each species.
These data represent the predicted bat take from wind energy allocated to each known winter hibernacula (at the resolution of the NABat grid cell) for each species, under several scenarios. These annual wind take predictions for each hibernacula and scenario were produced as inputs for a separate demographic scenario modeling effort (Wiens et al. 2021) in support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services' 3-Bat SSA. The predicted take allocated each year to each hibernacula was dependent on: 1) current or future distribution of wind energy on the landscape, 2) the curtailment status (none, summer only, summer and fall) of current wind energy facilities, 3) mortality rate (take/megawatt of rated capacity), under lower (25th percentile), mean, and upper (75th percentile) scenarios based on estimates provided by USFWS, 4) the predicted year of arrival of Pd (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) for each location based on 2 alternative models which used data from the county-level USGS pd surveillance map, 5) the species' proportion of all bat take in each USFWS region and Canadian province, based on estimates provided by USFWS (both before and after the arrival of Pd), 6) the mean and maximum migration distances of each species, 7) the last observed count of each hibernacula, 8) the distance between each hibernacula and wind energy location, and 9) an exponential migration kernel (distance decay function) based on the mean migration distance of each species. The total take at each wind energy grid cell was predicted based on items 1-5, and take was reallocated among hibernacula given items 6-9. Scenario levels included 4 time periods (current, 2030, 2040, 2050), 2 alternative pd spread models, 2 future wind energy development scenarios (high cost = low future build-out, low cost = high future build out) using models provided by the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), and 3 scenarios for take/megawatt estimates (mean, 25th percentile,75th percentile), for a total of 42 scenarios for each species.
Citation Information
Publication Year | 2021 |
---|---|
Title | In Support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-Bat Species Status Assessment: Predicted Wind Take Allocated To Hibernacula Each Year Under Current and Future Scenarios |
DOI | 10.5066/P97XVX22 |
Authors | Bradley J Udell, Bethany R Straw, Jennifer Szymanski, Megan Seymour, Jennifer Wong, Ashton M. Wiens, Brian E Reichert, James (Jay) E. Diffendorfer, Louisa A Kramer, Zachary H Ancona |
Product Type | Data Release |
Record Source | USGS Asset Identifier Service (AIS) |
USGS Organization | Fort Collins Science Center |
Rights | This work is marked with CC0 1.0 Universal |
Related
Analytical assessments in support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-bat species status assessment
Beginning in February of 2020, researchers and staff of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), Bat Conservation International (BCI), Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, and Montana State University associated with the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) collaborated with the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to provide technical assistance in...
Brian Reichert, PhD
Branch Chief / Supervisory Biologist
Branch Chief / Supervisory Biologist
Email
Phone
Jay Diffendorfer
Research Ecologist
Research Ecologist
Email
Phone
Louisa A. Kramer
Data Scientist
Data Scientist
Email
Zach Ancona
Physical Scientist
Physical Scientist
Email
Phone
Related
Analytical assessments in support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-bat species status assessment
Beginning in February of 2020, researchers and staff of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), Bat Conservation International (BCI), Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, and Montana State University associated with the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) collaborated with the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to provide technical assistance in...
Brian Reichert, PhD
Branch Chief / Supervisory Biologist
Branch Chief / Supervisory Biologist
Email
Phone
Jay Diffendorfer
Research Ecologist
Research Ecologist
Email
Phone
Louisa A. Kramer
Data Scientist
Data Scientist
Email
Zach Ancona
Physical Scientist
Physical Scientist
Email
Phone