My research broadly encompasses the development and application of advanced models and statistical methods to improve our understanding of ecological processes that influence the behavior, reproduction, and survival of individual animals, and how individual-animal outcomes ultimately scale upward to shape the dynamics and demographics of entire populations and communities through time.
Professional Experience
2009 - Present Research Statistician, U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center
2000 - 2009 Statistician, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Fisheries and Ecological Services, Alaska Region
1990 - 2000 Regional Biometrician, Alaska Dept. of Fish and Game, Commercial Fisheries Division
Education and Certifications
Ph.D. 1991 University of Wyoming Statistics
M.S. 1988 University of Wyoming Statistics
B.S. 1985 University of Alaska Wildlife Management
Affiliations and Memberships
The International Biometric Society
The Wildlife Society
Ecological Society of America
Honors and Awards
2014 U. S. Geological Survey, Quality step increase for exceptional performance
2014 U. S. Geological Survey, STAR award for special achievement
2012 U. S. Geological Survey, STAR award for special achievement
2012 Stevan Phelps Award, American Fisheries Society (Bromaghin et al., 2011, TAFS 140:235-249)
2011 U. S. Geological Survey, STAR award for special achievement
2010 U. S. Geological Survey, STAR award for special achievement
2007 U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, STAR award for exceptional performance
2007 U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Regional Director’s award for Science Excellence
2004 U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, quality step increase for sustained exceptional performance
2001 U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, STAR award for outstanding performance
1993 Letter of commendation, Alaska Dept. Fish and Game
1992 Deming Award for distinguished graduate program. Dept. of Statistics, University of Wyoming
Science and Products
Ecosystems Analytics
Polar Bear Population Dynamics
Multistate capture and search data from the southern Beaufort Sea polar bear population in Alaska, 2001-2016
Fatty acid signature data of potential yellow-billed loon prey in the Arctic coastal plain of Alaska, 2009-2011
U.S. Geological Survey Polar Bear Mark-Recapture Records, Alaska Portion of the Southern Beaufort Sea, 2001-2010
Long-term variation in polar bear body condition and maternal investment relative to a changing environment
Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016
Diet composition and body condition of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to sea ice habitat in the Canadian High Arctic
Seal body condition and atmospheric circulation patterns influence polar bear body condition, recruitment, and feeding ecology in the Chukchi Sea
Analyses on subpopulation abundance and annual number of maternal dens for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska
Drivers and consequences of apex predator diet composition in the Canadian Beaufort Sea
Dietary fat concentrations influence fatty acid assimilation patterns in Atlantic pollock (Pollachius virens)
Energy-rich mesopelagic fishes revealed as a critical prey resource for a deep-diving predator using quantitative fatty acid signature analysis
QFASAR: Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis with R
Simultaneous estimation of diet composition and calibration coefficients with fatty acid signature data
Detect and exploit hidden structure in fatty acid signature data
Habitat degradation affects the summer activity of polar bears
Model selection in Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture investigations
Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) mark-recapture models are widely utilized in ecology, providing estimates of vital rates and abundance that are difficult to obtain using other means.
QFASA robustness to assumption violations
Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA; Iverson et al. 2004) has become a common method of estimating diet composition, especially for marine mammals, but the performance of the method has received limited investigation.
Quantitative Fatty Acid Signature Analysis in R (qfasar)
Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) is a method of diet estimation introduced over a decade ago (Iverson et al. 2004).
Science and Products
- Science
Ecosystems Analytics
Ecosystems Analytics is a group of quantitative biologists and research statisticians with a diverse range of expertise and experience (summarized below). We collaborate with internal and external partners to answer challenging ecological questions that are a high priority of the U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Science Center, sister agencies within the Department of the Interior (DOI), and various...Polar Bear Population Dynamics
Information on the status and trends of polar bear populations are needed to inform management of polar bears under US laws and international agreements. The USGS maintains a long-term research program focused on the population dynamics of the southern Beaufort Sea polar bear population. In addition, the USGS collaborates with the US Fish and Wildlife Service in population studies in the Chukchi... - Data
Multistate capture and search data from the southern Beaufort Sea polar bear population in Alaska, 2001-2016
This data release contains two tables of information on polar bear distributions in the southern Beaufort Sea during spring, from 2001 to 2016. One table provides location (classified into 5 broad regions) of individual bears during the spring. The other table presents the aerial search effort by year and area.Fatty acid signature data of potential yellow-billed loon prey in the Arctic coastal plain of Alaska, 2009-2011
This dataset contains fatty acid data expressed as mass percent of total fatty acids for several species potentially preyed upon by yellow-billed loons. These data were utilized in a quantitative fatty acid signature analysis to estimate the diet of yellow-billed loons nesting on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska (Haynes et al. 2015).U.S. Geological Survey Polar Bear Mark-Recapture Records, Alaska Portion of the Southern Beaufort Sea, 2001-2010
These data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Polar Bear Research Program as part of long-term on the southern Beaufort Sea polar bear population. - Publications
Filter Total Items: 27
Long-term variation in polar bear body condition and maternal investment relative to a changing environment
In the Arctic, warming air and ocean temperatures have resulted in substantial changes to sea ice, which is primary habitat for polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Reductions in extent, duration, and thickness have altered sea ice dynamics, which influences the ability of polar bears to reliably access marine mammal prey. Because nutritional condition is closely linked to population vital rates, a progSurvival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016
The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice-free ecosystem. As ice-adapted apex predators, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food-web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inforDiet composition and body condition of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to sea ice habitat in the Canadian High Arctic
Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) rely on sea ice for hunting marine mammal prey. Declining sea ice conditions associated with climate warming have negatively affected polar bears, especially in the southern portion of their range. At higher latitudes, the transition from multi-year ice to thinner annual ice has been hypothesized to increase biological productivity and potentially improve polar bear fSeal body condition and atmospheric circulation patterns influence polar bear body condition, recruitment, and feeding ecology in the Chukchi Sea
Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are experiencing loss of sea ice habitats used to access their marine mammal prey. Simultaneously, ocean warming is changing ecosystems that support marine mammal populations. The interactive effects of sea ice and prey are not well understood yet may explain spatial‐temporal variation in the response of polar bears to sea ice loss. Here, we examined the potential comAnalyses on subpopulation abundance and annual number of maternal dens for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska
The long-term persistence of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) is threatened by sea-ice loss due to climate change, which is concurrently providing an opportunity in the Arctic for increased anthropogenic activities including natural resource extraction. Mitigating the risk of those activities, which can adversely affect the population dynamics of the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) subpopulation, is an eDrivers and consequences of apex predator diet composition in the Canadian Beaufort Sea
Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) rely on annual sea ice as their primary habitat for hunting marine mammal prey. Given their long lifespan, wide geographic distribution, and position at the top of the Arctic marine food web, the diet composition of polar bears can provide insights into temporal and spatial ecosystem dynamics related to climate-mediated sea ice loss. Polar bears with the greatest ecolDietary fat concentrations influence fatty acid assimilation patterns in Atlantic pollock (Pollachius virens)
A key aspect in the use of fatty acids (FA) to estimate predator diets using Quantitative FA Signature Analysis (QFASA) is the ability to account for FA assimilation through the use of calibration coefficients (CC). Here, we tested the assumption that CC are independent of dietary fat concentrations by feeding Atlantic pollock (Pollachius virens) three formulated diets with very similar FA proportEnergy-rich mesopelagic fishes revealed as a critical prey resource for a deep-diving predator using quantitative fatty acid signature analysis
Understanding the diet of deep-diving predators can provide essential insight to the trophic structure of the mesopelagic ecosystem. Comprehensive population-level diet estimates are exceptionally difficult to obtain for elusive marine predators due to the logistical challenges involved in observing their feeding behavior and collecting samples for traditional stomach content or fecal analyses. WeQFASAR: Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis with R
Knowledge of predator diets provides essential insights into their ecology, yet diet estimation is challenging and remains an active area of research.Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) is a popular method of estimating diet composition that continues to be investigated and extended. However, software to implement QFASA has only recently become publicly available.I summarize a new RSimultaneous estimation of diet composition and calibration coefficients with fatty acid signature data
Knowledge of animal diets provides essential insights into their life history and ecology, although diet estimation is challenging and remains an active area of research. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) has become a popular method of estimating diet composition, especially for marine species. A primary assumption of QFASA is that constants called calibration coefficients, whichDetect and exploit hidden structure in fatty acid signature data
Estimates of predator diet composition are essential to our understanding of their ecology. Although several methods of estimating diet are practiced, methods based on biomarkers have become increasingly common. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) is a popular method that continues to be refined and extended. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis is based on differences in theHabitat degradation affects the summer activity of polar bears
Understanding behavioral responses of species to environmental change is critical to forecasting population-level effects. Although climate change is significantly impacting species’ distributions, few studies have examined associated changes in behavior. Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations have varied in their near-term responses to sea ice decline. We examined behavioral responses of two - Software
Model selection in Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture investigations
Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) mark-recapture models are widely utilized in ecology, providing estimates of vital rates and abundance that are difficult to obtain using other means.
QFASA robustness to assumption violations
Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA; Iverson et al. 2004) has become a common method of estimating diet composition, especially for marine mammals, but the performance of the method has received limited investigation.
Quantitative Fatty Acid Signature Analysis in R (qfasar)
Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) is a method of diet estimation introduced over a decade ago (Iverson et al. 2004).