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Kishor Jaiswal

Kishor is a research civil (structural) engineer at U.S. Geological Survey in Golden, Colorado. At USGS, he leads the development of Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system’s earthquake casualty and economic loss estimation models.

As a Chief of Engineering & Risk Project at Geologic Hazards Science Center, Dr. Jaiswal leads the development of earthquake risk related products for buildings and critical infrastructure. Dr. Jaiswal is the Principal Investigator of 2017 FEMA P-366 study that produced annualized earthquake loss estimates for the United States. Dr. Jaiswal has also contributed to the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) development efforts by participating in and contributing to number of GEM’s earthquake risk-related projects. Dr. Jaiswal serves on Editorial Board of Earthquake Spectra Journal and is a licensed Professional Engineer (P.E.) in the state of Colorado. He is a recipient of numerous awards and recognition throughout his career, including 2014 EERI Housner Fellowship, inaugural recipient of 2012 Global Earthquake Model (GEM)’s Outstanding Contribution Award, and the Earthquake Spectra Outstanding Journal Paper Award. Dr. Jaiswal has authored and co-authored more than 150 professional peer reviewed publications that include journal papers, USGS publication series, conference papers, and published abstracts over the last 15 years of his professional career.

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Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California

It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to forecast s...
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John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
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Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California

It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to forecast s...
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A methodology to combine shaking and ground failure models for forecasting seismic damage to buried pipeline networks

How does an earthquake affect buried pipeline networks? It is well known that the seismic performance of buried pipelines depends on ground failures (GFs) as well as strong ground shaking (SGS), but it is unclear how the various types of earthquake hazards should be collectively combined, as existing methodologies tend to examine each of the earthquake hazards separately. In this article, we devel
Authors
N. Simon Kwong, Kishor Jaiswal

Uses of epistemic uncertainties in the USGS National Seismic Hazard Models

The need for US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) to report estimates of epistemic uncertainties in the hazard (e.g. fractile hazard curves) in all forthcoming releases is increasing. With fractile hazard curves as potential new outputs from the USGS 2023 NSHM, a simultaneous need is to help end-users better understand these epistemic uncertainties and clarify their p
Authors
N. Simon Kwong, Kishor Jaiswal
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Assessing direct and indirect long-term economic impacts from earthquakes to the U.S. National Bridge Inventory

Using the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model and the 2018 National Bridge Inventory, an annualized earthquake loss (AEL) study was conducted for approximately 610,000 bridges in the conterminous United States, quantifying both direct and indirect economic losses. The typical AEL framework has been augmented with new replacement unit cost data and bridge-specific parameters for modifying default fr
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Kishor Jaiswal, N. Simon Kwong, Doug Bausch, David J. Wald, Kuo-wan Lin, Sharon Yen, Jerry Shen, Jeffrey Ger
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Preliminary national-scale seismic risk assessment of natural gas pipelines in the United States

Although the gas pipeline infrastructure in the United States is vulnerable to the seismic hazards of (i) strong ground shaking, and (ii) ground failures induced by surface faulting, liquefaction, or landslides, limited national guidance exists for operators to consistently evaluate the earthquake response of their pipelines. To provide additional information for stakeholders and establish more co
Authors
N. Simon Kwong, Kishor Jaiswal, Nicolas Luco, J. W. Baker, K. A. Ludwig
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

A theoretical framework for integrating ground failure models into regional seismic performance assessments of buried pipelines

A variety of models exist for characterizing earthquake-induced ground failures, but application of these models towards regional seismic performance assessments of buried pipelines remains challenging. One challenge is that ground failures often occur at localized geospatial scales while buried pipelines are spatially distributed over long distances. In this study, we propose a theoretical framew
Authors
N. Simon Kwong, Kishor Jaiswal
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Integrated strategies for enhanced rapid earthquake shaking, ground failure, and impact estimation employing remotely sensed and ground truth constraints

Estimating earthquake impacts using physical or empirical models is challenging because the three components of loss estimation-shaking, exposure, and vulnerabilities-entail inherent uncertainties. Loss modeling in near-real-time adds additional uncertainties, yet expectations for actionable information with a reasonable level of confidence in the results are real. The modeling approaches describe
Authors
David J. Wald, Susu Xu, H. Noh, J. Dimasaka, Kishor Jaiswal, Kate E. Allstadt, Davis T. Engler

Partitioning ground motion uncertainty when conditioned on station data

Rapid estimation of earthquake ground shaking and proper accounting of associated uncertainties in such estimates when conditioned on strong‐motion station data or macroseismic intensity observations are crucial for downstream applications such as ground failure and loss estimation. The U.S. Geological Survey ShakeMap system is called upon to fulfill this objective in light of increased near‐real‐
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Davis T. Engler, Charles Worden, Eric M. Thompson, Kishor Jaiswal
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Open-source resources help navigate new IM regulations

The revision of federal safety regulations for integrity management of gas transmission pipelines to require explicit consideration of seismicity increases the importance for operators to be actively identifying high-consequence areas (HCAs), evaluating seismic-related threats, and choosing a risk model to support risk management decisions. To ensure equal access to information by both operators a
Authors
N. Simon Kwong, Kishor Jaiswal, J. W. Baker, Nicolas Luco, K. A. Ludwig, Vasey J. Stephens
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for the State of Hawaii

The 2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii updates the two-decades-old former model by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the underlying ground shaking forecasts of tectonic-fault, tectonic-flexure, volcanic, and caldera collapse earthquakes. Two earthquake ground shaking hazard models (public policy and research) are produced that differ in h
Authors
Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Morgan P. Moschetti, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Charles Mueller, Arthur Frankel, Sanaz Rezaeian, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Daniel E. McNamara, P. Okubo, Yuehua Zeng, Kishor Jaiswal, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Jason M. Altekruse, Brian Shiro
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Volcano Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Volcano Science Center

Earthquake risk of gas pipelines in the conterminous United States and its sources of uncertainty

Relatively little research has been conducted to systematically quantify the nationwide earthquake risk of gas pipelines in the US; simultaneously, national guidance is limited for operators across the country to consistently evaluate the earthquake risk of their assets. Furthermore, many challenges and uncertainties exist in a comprehensive seismic risk assessment of gas pipelines. As a first sta
Authors
N. Simon Kwong, Kishor Jaiswal, Jack W. Baker, Nicolas Luco, K. A. Ludwig, Vasey J. Stephens
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

An efficient Bayesian framework for updating PAGER loss estimates

We introduce a Bayesian framework for incorporating time-varying noisy reported data on damage and loss information to update near real-time loss estimates/alerts for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. Initial loss estimation by PAGER immediately following an earthquake includes several uncertainties. Historically, the PAGER’s alerting
Authors
Hae Young Noh, Kishor Jaiswal, Davis T. Engler, David J. Wald
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motion maps changed

The 2018 US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) incorporates new data and updated science to improve the underlying earthquake and ground motion forecasts for the conterminous United States. The NSHM considers many new data and component input models: (1) new earthquakes between 2013 and 2017 and updated earthquake magnitudes for some earlier earthquakes; (2) two updated smoothe
Authors
Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Charles S Mueller, Morgan P. Moschetti, Arthur Frankel, Sanaz Rezaeian, Daniel McNamara, Nicolas Luco, Oliver S. Boyd, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Kishor Jaiswal, Eric M. Thompson, Susan M. Hoover, Brandon Clayton, Edward H. Field, Yuehua Zeng
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center
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New USGS-FEMA study highlights economic earthquake risk in the United States

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico — Earthquakes cost the nation an estimated $14.7 billion annually in building damage and associated losses according to a new...

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USGS Authors New Report on Seismic Hazard, Risk, and Design for South America

New seismic hazard and risk assessments can help at-risk communities prepare for future earthquake disasters

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Nearly Half of Americans Exposed to Potentially Damaging Earthquakes

More than 143 million Americans living in the 48 contiguous states are exposed to potentially damaging ground shaking from earthquakes. When the...

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