I am a geophysicist specializing in volcanic systems. I use monitoring data to better understand and forecast volcanic processes and hazards.
I work to understand volcanic systems by developing mathematical models which relate magma physics with monitoring data such as ground deformations and eruption rates. Model predictions can be compared with real-world observations using probabilistic statistical approaches, making it possible to constrain properties of volcanic systems such as the composition and volume of stored magma. These techniques can also be used in some cases to forecast future eruptive activity. I've worked most extensively at Mount St. Helens and Kīlauea volcanoes, but I'm interested in volcanoes and eruptions around the world.
Research Interests
- Physics of magma systems and volcanic eruptions
- Caldera collapse processes
- Episodic/cyclic eruptive behavior
- Volatiles in magma and influence on eruptive processes
- Rates of magma supply, storage, and eruption
- Ground deformation caused by magmatic processes
- Volcanic hazards assessments and forecasts
- Uncertainty quantification
Professional Experience
Research Geophysicist, USGS Volcano Science Center (California Volcano Observatory) (2015-present)
Mendenhall Postdoctoral Research Fellow, USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (2012-2015)
Education and Certifications
PhD: Geophysics, Stanford University
MS: Geophysics, Stanford University
BA: Geology-Physics, Whitman College
Science and Products
Cyclic lava effusion during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea Volcano: data release
This USGS data release includes data related to the Science magazine manuscript "Cyclic lava effusion during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea Volcano" by Patrick et al. The data release includes 1) original video as well as thermal, and timelapse images of lava in the proximal Fissure 8 channel, 2) derived estimates of lava level in the channel and bulk effusion rates (not corrected for vesicles), 3)
Filter Total Items: 31
Constraining the magmatic system at Mount St. Helens (2004–2008) using Bayesian inversion with physics-based models including gas escape and crystallization
Physics-based models of volcanic eruptions track conduit processes as functions of depth and time. When used in inversions, these models permit integration of diverse geological and geophysical data sets to constrain important parameters of magmatic systems. We develop a 1-D steady state conduit model for effusive eruptions including equilibrium crystallization and gas transport through the condui
Abundant carbon in the mantle beneath Hawai`i
Estimates of carbon concentrations in Earth’s mantle vary over more than an order of magnitude, hindering our ability to understand mantle structure and mineralogy, partial melting, and the carbon cycle. CO2 concentrations in mantle-derived magmas supplying hotspot ocean island volcanoes yield our most direct constraints on mantle carbon, but are extensively modified by degassing during ascent. He
The 2014 annual report for the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
Introduction
This report summarizes team activities and findings of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory during the year 2014 in geology, geodesy, seismicity, and gas geochemistry. The eruption of Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō continued into its 32nd year with flows active to the northeast of the vent. One of them, the June 27th lava flow, named for the date in 2014 that the flow started, advanced far and fast enough to
Bayesian estimation of magma supply, storage, and eruption rates using a multiphysical volcano model: Kīlauea Volcano, 2000–2012
Estimating rates of magma supply to the world's volcanoes remains one of the most fundamental aims of volcanology. Yet, supply rates can be difficult to estimate even at well-monitored volcanoes, in part because observations are noisy and are usually considered independently rather than as part of a holistic system. In this work we demonstrate a technique for probabilistically estimating time-vari
The 2014-2015 Pāhoa lava flow crisis at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i: Disaster avoided and lessons learned
Lava flow crises are nothing new on the Island of Hawai‘i, where their destructive force has been demonstrated repeatedly over the past several hundred years. The 2014–2015 Pāhoa lava flow crisis, however, was unique in terms of its societal impact and volcanological characteristics. Despite low effusion rates, a long-lived lava flow whose extent reached 20 km (the longest at Kīlauea Volcano in th
Episodic deflation-inflation events at Kīlauea Volcano and implications for the shallow magma system: Chapter 11
Episodic variations in magma pressures and flow rates at Kīlauea Volcano, defined by a characteristic temporal evolution and termed deflation-inflation (DI) events, have been observed since at least the 1990s. DI events consist of transient, days-long deflations and subsequent reinflations of the summit region, accompanied since 2008 by fluctuations in the surface height of Kīlauea's summit lava l
Lava lake level as a gauge of magma reservoir pressure and eruptive hazard
Forecasting volcanic activity relies fundamentally on tracking magma pressure through the use of proxies, such as ground surface deformation and earthquake rates. Lava lakes at open-vent basaltic volcanoes provide a window into the uppermost magma system for gauging reservoir pressure changes more directly. At Kīlauea Volcano (Hawaiʻi, USA) the surface height of the summit lava lake in Halemaʻumaʻ
The 2004–2008 dome-building eruption at Mount St. Helens, Washington: Epilogue
The 2004–2008 dome-building eruption at Mount St. Helens ended during winter 2007–2008 at a time when field observations were hampered by persistent bad weather. As a result, recognizing the end of the eruption was challenging—but important for scientists trying to understand how and why long-lived eruptions end and for public officials and land managers responsible for hazards mitigation and acce
Decaying lava extrusion rate at El Reventador Volcano, Ecuador measured using high-resolution satellite radar
Lava extrusion at erupting volcanoes causes rapid changes in topography and morphology on the order of tens or even hundreds of meters. Satellite radar provides a method for measuring changes in topographic height over a given time period to an accuracy of meters, either by measuring the width of radar shadow cast by steep sided features, or by measuring the difference in radar phase between two s
The 2018 rift eruption and summit collapse of Kilauea Volcano
In 2018, Kīlauea Volcano experienced its largest lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption and caldera collapse in at least 200 years. After collapse of the Pu'u 'Ō'ō vent on 30 April, magma propagated downrift. Eruptive fissures opened in the LERZ on 3 May, eventually extending ~6.8 km. A 4 May earthquake (M6.9) produced ~5 m of fault slip. Lava erupted at rates exceeding 100 m3/s, eventually coveri
A cautionary tale of topography and tilt from Kilauea Caldera
We conduct finite element analysis to investigate the effect of sharp topography on surface ground deformation caused by pressure changes in a magma reservoir. Tilt data express the horizontal gradient of vertical displacement and therefore can emphasize small variations in deformation that go unnoticed using other methods. We find that the vertical displacement profile at a surface with a cliff c
Physicochemical models of effusive rhyolitic eruptions constrained with InSAR and DEM data: A case study of the 2011-2012 Cordon Caulle eruption
The 9 month long 2011-2012 eruption of Cordon Caulle (Southern Andes, Chile) is the best instrumentally recorded rhyolitic eruption to date and the first time that the effusion of a rhyolitic flow has been observed in detail. We use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), with time-lapse DEMs and numerical models to study the dynamics of coupled magma reservoir deflation and lava effusio
Pre-USGS Publications
P. Segall and K. Anderson (2014), Look up for magma insights, Nature Geoscience, 7 (3), 2 pp., doi:10.1038/ngeo2064
Anderson, K. and P. Segall (2011), Physics-based models of ground deformation and extrusion rate at effusively erupting volcanoes, Journal of Geophysical Research, 116 (B7), 20 pp., doi:10.1029/2010JB007939
Anderson, K., M. Lisowski, and P. Segall (2010), Cyclic ground tilt associated with the 2004-2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Journal of Geophysical Research, 115 (B11), 29 pp., doi:10.1029/2009JB007102
Science and Products
- Data
Cyclic lava effusion during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea Volcano: data release
This USGS data release includes data related to the Science magazine manuscript "Cyclic lava effusion during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea Volcano" by Patrick et al. The data release includes 1) original video as well as thermal, and timelapse images of lava in the proximal Fissure 8 channel, 2) derived estimates of lava level in the channel and bulk effusion rates (not corrected for vesicles), 3) - Publications
Filter Total Items: 31
Constraining the magmatic system at Mount St. Helens (2004–2008) using Bayesian inversion with physics-based models including gas escape and crystallization
Physics-based models of volcanic eruptions track conduit processes as functions of depth and time. When used in inversions, these models permit integration of diverse geological and geophysical data sets to constrain important parameters of magmatic systems. We develop a 1-D steady state conduit model for effusive eruptions including equilibrium crystallization and gas transport through the conduiAbundant carbon in the mantle beneath Hawai`i
Estimates of carbon concentrations in Earth’s mantle vary over more than an order of magnitude, hindering our ability to understand mantle structure and mineralogy, partial melting, and the carbon cycle. CO2 concentrations in mantle-derived magmas supplying hotspot ocean island volcanoes yield our most direct constraints on mantle carbon, but are extensively modified by degassing during ascent. HeThe 2014 annual report for the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
Introduction This report summarizes team activities and findings of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory during the year 2014 in geology, geodesy, seismicity, and gas geochemistry. The eruption of Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō continued into its 32nd year with flows active to the northeast of the vent. One of them, the June 27th lava flow, named for the date in 2014 that the flow started, advanced far and fast enough toBayesian estimation of magma supply, storage, and eruption rates using a multiphysical volcano model: Kīlauea Volcano, 2000–2012
Estimating rates of magma supply to the world's volcanoes remains one of the most fundamental aims of volcanology. Yet, supply rates can be difficult to estimate even at well-monitored volcanoes, in part because observations are noisy and are usually considered independently rather than as part of a holistic system. In this work we demonstrate a technique for probabilistically estimating time-variThe 2014-2015 Pāhoa lava flow crisis at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i: Disaster avoided and lessons learned
Lava flow crises are nothing new on the Island of Hawai‘i, where their destructive force has been demonstrated repeatedly over the past several hundred years. The 2014–2015 Pāhoa lava flow crisis, however, was unique in terms of its societal impact and volcanological characteristics. Despite low effusion rates, a long-lived lava flow whose extent reached 20 km (the longest at Kīlauea Volcano in thEpisodic deflation-inflation events at Kīlauea Volcano and implications for the shallow magma system: Chapter 11
Episodic variations in magma pressures and flow rates at Kīlauea Volcano, defined by a characteristic temporal evolution and termed deflation-inflation (DI) events, have been observed since at least the 1990s. DI events consist of transient, days-long deflations and subsequent reinflations of the summit region, accompanied since 2008 by fluctuations in the surface height of Kīlauea's summit lava lLava lake level as a gauge of magma reservoir pressure and eruptive hazard
Forecasting volcanic activity relies fundamentally on tracking magma pressure through the use of proxies, such as ground surface deformation and earthquake rates. Lava lakes at open-vent basaltic volcanoes provide a window into the uppermost magma system for gauging reservoir pressure changes more directly. At Kīlauea Volcano (Hawaiʻi, USA) the surface height of the summit lava lake in HalemaʻumaʻThe 2004–2008 dome-building eruption at Mount St. Helens, Washington: Epilogue
The 2004–2008 dome-building eruption at Mount St. Helens ended during winter 2007–2008 at a time when field observations were hampered by persistent bad weather. As a result, recognizing the end of the eruption was challenging—but important for scientists trying to understand how and why long-lived eruptions end and for public officials and land managers responsible for hazards mitigation and acceDecaying lava extrusion rate at El Reventador Volcano, Ecuador measured using high-resolution satellite radar
Lava extrusion at erupting volcanoes causes rapid changes in topography and morphology on the order of tens or even hundreds of meters. Satellite radar provides a method for measuring changes in topographic height over a given time period to an accuracy of meters, either by measuring the width of radar shadow cast by steep sided features, or by measuring the difference in radar phase between two sThe 2018 rift eruption and summit collapse of Kilauea Volcano
In 2018, Kīlauea Volcano experienced its largest lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption and caldera collapse in at least 200 years. After collapse of the Pu'u 'Ō'ō vent on 30 April, magma propagated downrift. Eruptive fissures opened in the LERZ on 3 May, eventually extending ~6.8 km. A 4 May earthquake (M6.9) produced ~5 m of fault slip. Lava erupted at rates exceeding 100 m3/s, eventually coveriA cautionary tale of topography and tilt from Kilauea Caldera
We conduct finite element analysis to investigate the effect of sharp topography on surface ground deformation caused by pressure changes in a magma reservoir. Tilt data express the horizontal gradient of vertical displacement and therefore can emphasize small variations in deformation that go unnoticed using other methods. We find that the vertical displacement profile at a surface with a cliff cPhysicochemical models of effusive rhyolitic eruptions constrained with InSAR and DEM data: A case study of the 2011-2012 Cordon Caulle eruption
The 9 month long 2011-2012 eruption of Cordon Caulle (Southern Andes, Chile) is the best instrumentally recorded rhyolitic eruption to date and the first time that the effusion of a rhyolitic flow has been observed in detail. We use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), with time-lapse DEMs and numerical models to study the dynamics of coupled magma reservoir deflation and lava effusioPre-USGS Publications
P. Segall and K. Anderson (2014), Look up for magma insights, Nature Geoscience, 7 (3), 2 pp., doi:10.1038/ngeo2064Anderson, K. and P. Segall (2011), Physics-based models of ground deformation and extrusion rate at effusively erupting volcanoes, Journal of Geophysical Research, 116 (B7), 20 pp., doi:10.1029/2010JB007939
Anderson, K., M. Lisowski, and P. Segall (2010), Cyclic ground tilt associated with the 2004-2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Journal of Geophysical Research, 115 (B11), 29 pp., doi:10.1029/2009JB007102 - News