I am a geophysicist specializing in volcanic systems. I use monitoring data to better understand and forecast volcanic processes and hazards.
I work to understand volcanic systems by developing mathematical models which relate magma physics with monitoring data such as ground deformations and eruption rates. Model predictions can be compared with real-world observations using probabilistic statistical approaches, making it possible to constrain properties of volcanic systems such as the composition and volume of stored magma. These techniques can also be used in some cases to forecast future eruptive activity. I've worked most extensively at Mount St. Helens and Kīlauea volcanoes, but I'm interested in volcanoes and eruptions around the world.
Research Interests
- Physics of magma systems and volcanic eruptions
- Caldera collapse processes
- Episodic/cyclic eruptive behavior
- Volatiles in magma and influence on eruptive processes
- Rates of magma supply, storage, and eruption
- Ground deformation caused by magmatic processes
- Volcanic hazards assessments and forecasts
- Uncertainty quantification
Professional Experience
Research Geophysicist, USGS Volcano Science Center (California Volcano Observatory) (2015-present)
Mendenhall Postdoctoral Research Fellow, USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (2012-2015)
Education and Certifications
PhD: Geophysics, Stanford University
MS: Geophysics, Stanford University
BA: Geology-Physics, Whitman College
Science and Products
Cyclic lava effusion during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea Volcano: data release
This USGS data release includes data related to the Science magazine manuscript "Cyclic lava effusion during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea Volcano" by Patrick et al. The data release includes 1) original video as well as thermal, and timelapse images of lava in the proximal Fissure 8 channel, 2) derived estimates of lava level in the channel and bulk effusion rates (not corrected for vesicles), 3)
Filter Total Items: 36
Optimizing satellite resources for the global assessment and mitigation of volcanic hazards—Suggestions from the USGS Powell Center Volcano Remote Sensing Working Group
A significant number of the world’s approximately 1,400 subaerial volcanoes with Holocene eruptions are unmonitored by ground-based sensors yet constitute a potential hazard to nearby residents and infrastructure, as well as air travel and global commerce. Data from an international constellation of more than 60 current satellite instruments provide a cost-effective means of tracking activity and
Incremental caldera collapse at Kīlauea Volcano recorded in ground tilt and high-rate GNSS data, with implications for collapse dynamics and the magma system
Ground deformation during caldera collapse at Kīlauea Volcano in 2018 was recorded in unprecedented detail on a network of real-time GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) and tilt instruments. Observations informed hazard assessments during the eruption and now yield insight into collapse dynamics and the magma system. The caldera grew in size over 78 days in a series of repeating, quasi-perio
Could Kı̄lauea's 2020 post caldera-forming eruption have been anticipated?
In 2018 Kīlauea volcano erupted a decade’s worth of basalt, given estimated magma supply rates, triggering caldera collapse. Yet, less than 2.5 years later Kīlauea re-erupted. At the 2018 eruption onset, pressure within the summit reservoir was ~20 MPa above magmastatic. By the onset of collapse this decreased by ~17 MPa. Analysis of magma surges at the 2018 fissures, following collapse events, im
Earthquake-derived seismic velocity changes during the 2018 caldera collapse of Kīlauea volcano
The 2018 Kīlauea caldera collapse produced extraordinary sequences of seismicity and deformation, with 62 episodic collapse events which significantly altered the landscape of the summit region. Despite decades of focused scientific studies at Kīlauea, detailed information about the internal structure of the volcano is limited. Recently developed techniques in seismic interferometry can be used to
Rainfall an unlikely trigger of Kilauea’s 2018 rift eruption
If volcanic eruptions could be forecast from the occurrence of some external process, it might be possible to better mitigate risk and protect lives and livelihoods. Farquharson and Amelung1 suggested that the 2018 lower East Rift Zone (ERZ) eruption of Kīlauea Volcano—the most destructive eruption in Hawai‘i in at least 200 years2—was triggered by extreme precipitation, which caused increased por
A decade of geodetic change at Kīlauea’s summit—Observations, interpretations, and unanswered questions from studies of the 2008–2018 Halemaʻumaʻu eruption
On March 19, 2008, a small explosion heralded the onset of an extraordinary eruption at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano. The following 10 years provided unprecedented access to an actively circulating lava lake located within a region monitored by numerous geodetic tools, including Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), tilt, and gravity. These d
Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part I: Raikoke volcano, Kuril Islands
Raikoke, a small, unmonitored volcano in the Kuril Islands, erupted in June 2019. We integrate data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network, and global lightning detection network (GLD360) with information from local authorities and social media to retrospectively characterize the eruptive sequence and improve
Multidisciplinary constraints on magma compressibility, the pre-eruptive exsolved volatile fraction, and the H2O/CO2 molar ratio for the 2006 Augustine eruption, Alaska
Geodetically modeled reservoir volume changes during volcanic eruptions are commonly much smaller than the observed eruptive volumes. This discrepancy is thought to be partially due to the compressibility of magma, which is largely controlled by the presence of exsolved volatiles. The 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska, produced an eruptive volume that was ∼3 times larger than the geodetic
Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part II: Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea
Retrospective eruption characterization is valuable for advancing our understanding of volcanic systems and evaluating our observational capabilities, especially with remote technologies (defined here as a space-borne system or non-local, ground-based instrumentation which include regional and remote infrasound sensors). In June 2019, the open-system Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea, produced a VE
Repeating caldera collapse events constrain fault friction at the kilometer scale
Fault friction is central to understanding earthquakes, yet laboratory rock mechanics experiments are restricted to, at most, meter scale. Questions thus remain as to the applicability of measured frictional properties to faulting in situ. In particular, the slip-weakening distance dcdc strongly influences precursory slip during earthquake nucleation, but scales with fault roughness and is challen
The cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting
The 2018 summit and flank eruption of Kīlauea Volcano was one of the largest volcanic events in Hawaiʻi in 200 years. Data suggest that a backup in the magma plumbing system at the long-lived Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruption site caused widespread pressurization in the volcano, driving magma into the lower flank. The eruption evolved, and its impact expanded, as a sequence of cascading events, allowing relative
Very‐long‐period (VLP) seismic artifacts during the 2018 caldera collapse at Kīlauea, Hawaii
Throughout the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea volcano (Hawai‘i), episodic collapses of a portion of the volcano’s summit caldera produced repeated Mw 4.9–5.3 earthquakes. Each of these 62 events was characterized by a very‐long‐period (VLP) seismic signal (>40 s). Although collapses in the later stage of the eruption produced earthquakes with significant amplitude clipping on near‐summit broadband se
Non-USGS Publications**
P. Segall and K. Anderson (2014), Look up for magma insights, Nature Geoscience, 7 (3), 2 pp., doi:10.1038/ngeo2064
Anderson, K. and P. Segall (2011), Physics-based models of ground deformation and extrusion rate at effusively erupting volcanoes, Journal of Geophysical Research, 116 (B7), 20 pp., doi:10.1029/2010JB007939
Anderson, K., M. Lisowski, and P. Segall (2010), Cyclic ground tilt associated with the 2004-2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Journal of Geophysical Research, 115 (B11), 29 pp., doi:10.1029/2009JB007102
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Science and Products
- Data
Cyclic lava effusion during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea Volcano: data release
This USGS data release includes data related to the Science magazine manuscript "Cyclic lava effusion during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea Volcano" by Patrick et al. The data release includes 1) original video as well as thermal, and timelapse images of lava in the proximal Fissure 8 channel, 2) derived estimates of lava level in the channel and bulk effusion rates (not corrected for vesicles), 3) - Publications
Filter Total Items: 36
Optimizing satellite resources for the global assessment and mitigation of volcanic hazards—Suggestions from the USGS Powell Center Volcano Remote Sensing Working Group
A significant number of the world’s approximately 1,400 subaerial volcanoes with Holocene eruptions are unmonitored by ground-based sensors yet constitute a potential hazard to nearby residents and infrastructure, as well as air travel and global commerce. Data from an international constellation of more than 60 current satellite instruments provide a cost-effective means of tracking activity andIncremental caldera collapse at Kīlauea Volcano recorded in ground tilt and high-rate GNSS data, with implications for collapse dynamics and the magma system
Ground deformation during caldera collapse at Kīlauea Volcano in 2018 was recorded in unprecedented detail on a network of real-time GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) and tilt instruments. Observations informed hazard assessments during the eruption and now yield insight into collapse dynamics and the magma system. The caldera grew in size over 78 days in a series of repeating, quasi-perioCould Kı̄lauea's 2020 post caldera-forming eruption have been anticipated?
In 2018 Kīlauea volcano erupted a decade’s worth of basalt, given estimated magma supply rates, triggering caldera collapse. Yet, less than 2.5 years later Kīlauea re-erupted. At the 2018 eruption onset, pressure within the summit reservoir was ~20 MPa above magmastatic. By the onset of collapse this decreased by ~17 MPa. Analysis of magma surges at the 2018 fissures, following collapse events, imEarthquake-derived seismic velocity changes during the 2018 caldera collapse of Kīlauea volcano
The 2018 Kīlauea caldera collapse produced extraordinary sequences of seismicity and deformation, with 62 episodic collapse events which significantly altered the landscape of the summit region. Despite decades of focused scientific studies at Kīlauea, detailed information about the internal structure of the volcano is limited. Recently developed techniques in seismic interferometry can be used toRainfall an unlikely trigger of Kilauea’s 2018 rift eruption
If volcanic eruptions could be forecast from the occurrence of some external process, it might be possible to better mitigate risk and protect lives and livelihoods. Farquharson and Amelung1 suggested that the 2018 lower East Rift Zone (ERZ) eruption of Kīlauea Volcano—the most destructive eruption in Hawai‘i in at least 200 years2—was triggered by extreme precipitation, which caused increased porA decade of geodetic change at Kīlauea’s summit—Observations, interpretations, and unanswered questions from studies of the 2008–2018 Halemaʻumaʻu eruption
On March 19, 2008, a small explosion heralded the onset of an extraordinary eruption at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano. The following 10 years provided unprecedented access to an actively circulating lava lake located within a region monitored by numerous geodetic tools, including Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), tilt, and gravity. These dEvaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part I: Raikoke volcano, Kuril Islands
Raikoke, a small, unmonitored volcano in the Kuril Islands, erupted in June 2019. We integrate data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network, and global lightning detection network (GLD360) with information from local authorities and social media to retrospectively characterize the eruptive sequence and improveMultidisciplinary constraints on magma compressibility, the pre-eruptive exsolved volatile fraction, and the H2O/CO2 molar ratio for the 2006 Augustine eruption, Alaska
Geodetically modeled reservoir volume changes during volcanic eruptions are commonly much smaller than the observed eruptive volumes. This discrepancy is thought to be partially due to the compressibility of magma, which is largely controlled by the presence of exsolved volatiles. The 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska, produced an eruptive volume that was ∼3 times larger than the geodeticEvaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part II: Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea
Retrospective eruption characterization is valuable for advancing our understanding of volcanic systems and evaluating our observational capabilities, especially with remote technologies (defined here as a space-borne system or non-local, ground-based instrumentation which include regional and remote infrasound sensors). In June 2019, the open-system Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea, produced a VERepeating caldera collapse events constrain fault friction at the kilometer scale
Fault friction is central to understanding earthquakes, yet laboratory rock mechanics experiments are restricted to, at most, meter scale. Questions thus remain as to the applicability of measured frictional properties to faulting in situ. In particular, the slip-weakening distance dcdc strongly influences precursory slip during earthquake nucleation, but scales with fault roughness and is challenThe cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting
The 2018 summit and flank eruption of Kīlauea Volcano was one of the largest volcanic events in Hawaiʻi in 200 years. Data suggest that a backup in the magma plumbing system at the long-lived Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruption site caused widespread pressurization in the volcano, driving magma into the lower flank. The eruption evolved, and its impact expanded, as a sequence of cascading events, allowing relativeVery‐long‐period (VLP) seismic artifacts during the 2018 caldera collapse at Kīlauea, Hawaii
Throughout the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea volcano (Hawai‘i), episodic collapses of a portion of the volcano’s summit caldera produced repeated Mw 4.9–5.3 earthquakes. Each of these 62 events was characterized by a very‐long‐period (VLP) seismic signal (>40 s). Although collapses in the later stage of the eruption produced earthquakes with significant amplitude clipping on near‐summit broadband seNon-USGS Publications**
P. Segall and K. Anderson (2014), Look up for magma insights, Nature Geoscience, 7 (3), 2 pp., doi:10.1038/ngeo2064Anderson, K. and P. Segall (2011), Physics-based models of ground deformation and extrusion rate at effusively erupting volcanoes, Journal of Geophysical Research, 116 (B7), 20 pp., doi:10.1029/2010JB007939
Anderson, K., M. Lisowski, and P. Segall (2010), Cyclic ground tilt associated with the 2004-2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Journal of Geophysical Research, 115 (B11), 29 pp., doi:10.1029/2009JB007102**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
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