Ned Field
Ned (Edward) Field is a Research Geophysicist with the Earthquake Hazards Program.
Ned Field coordinates and leads the development of earthquake forecast models for the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. These forecasts, coupled with ground-motion models, form the basis of modern seismic hazard and risk analyses. Their development is multidisciplinary and collaborative (a "systems science" problem) in that information from a broad range of disciplines (e.g., seismology, geodesy, geology, paleoseismology, and earthquake physics) must reconciled.
Recent accomplishments and ongoing challenges involve representation of multi-fault ruptures and spatiotemporal clustering (e.g., aftershocks), improved uncertainty estimates, applying more physics-based approaches, and the need to add "valuation" to our verification and validation protocols (i.e., a greater focus on usefulness). Ned is also involved in developing and deploying end-to-end seismic hazard and risk computational platforms. The resultant models influence a variety of risk mitigation activities, including construction requirements (building codes) and earthquake insurance rates.
Science and Products
Computing elastic‐rebound‐motivated rarthquake probabilities in unsegmented fault models: a new methodology supported by physics‐based simulators
“All Models Are Wrong, but Some Are Useful”
Documentation for the 2014 update of the United States national seismic hazard maps
Aftershock risks such as those demonstrated by the recent events in New Zealand and Japan
The UCERF3 grand inversion: Solving for the long‐term rate of ruptures in a fault system
2014 update of the U.S. national seismic hazard maps
Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24h post mainshock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M=6.0 West Napa earthquake
Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3): the time-independent model
A comparison among observations and earthquake simulator results for the allcal2 California fault model
Trimming the UCERF2 hazard logic tree
CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California
Conditional, time-dependent probabilities for segmented Type-A faults in the WGCEP UCERF 2
New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US
USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could experience a damaging earthquake, emphasizing seismic hazards span a significant part of the country.
Science and Products
Computing elastic‐rebound‐motivated rarthquake probabilities in unsegmented fault models: a new methodology supported by physics‐based simulators
“All Models Are Wrong, but Some Are Useful”
Documentation for the 2014 update of the United States national seismic hazard maps
Aftershock risks such as those demonstrated by the recent events in New Zealand and Japan
The UCERF3 grand inversion: Solving for the long‐term rate of ruptures in a fault system
2014 update of the U.S. national seismic hazard maps
Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24h post mainshock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M=6.0 West Napa earthquake
Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3): the time-independent model
A comparison among observations and earthquake simulator results for the allcal2 California fault model
Trimming the UCERF2 hazard logic tree
CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California
Conditional, time-dependent probabilities for segmented Type-A faults in the WGCEP UCERF 2
New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US
USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could experience a damaging earthquake, emphasizing seismic hazards span a significant part of the country.