Ned Field
Ned (Edward) Field is a Research Geophysicist with the Earthquake Hazards Program.
Ned Field coordinates and leads the development of earthquake forecast models for the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. These forecasts, coupled with ground-motion models, form the basis of modern seismic hazard and risk analyses. Their development is multidisciplinary and collaborative (a "systems science" problem) in that information from a broad range of disciplines (e.g., seismology, geodesy, geology, paleoseismology, and earthquake physics) must reconciled.
Recent accomplishments and ongoing challenges involve representation of multi-fault ruptures and spatiotemporal clustering (e.g., aftershocks), improved uncertainty estimates, applying more physics-based approaches, and the need to add "valuation" to our verification and validation protocols (i.e., a greater focus on usefulness). Ned is also involved in developing and deploying end-to-end seismic hazard and risk computational platforms. The resultant models influence a variety of risk mitigation activities, including construction requirements (building codes) and earthquake insurance rates.
Science and Products
Candidate products for operational earthquake forecasting illustrated using the HayWired planning scenario, including one very quick (and not‐so‐dirty) hazard‐map option
A prototype operational earthquake loss model for California based on UCERF3-ETAS – A first look at valuation
A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
Trimming a hazard logic tree with a new model-order-reduction technique
A spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an operational earthquake forecast
The potential uses of operational earthquake forecasting
Seismic source characterization for the 2014 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model
The 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model
The 2014 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model in California
UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California's complex fault system
Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
Time‐dependent renewal‐model probabilities when date of last earthquake is unknown
New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US
USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could experience a damaging earthquake, emphasizing seismic hazards span a significant part of the country.
Science and Products
Candidate products for operational earthquake forecasting illustrated using the HayWired planning scenario, including one very quick (and not‐so‐dirty) hazard‐map option
A prototype operational earthquake loss model for California based on UCERF3-ETAS – A first look at valuation
A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
Trimming a hazard logic tree with a new model-order-reduction technique
A spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an operational earthquake forecast
The potential uses of operational earthquake forecasting
Seismic source characterization for the 2014 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model
The 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model
The 2014 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model in California
UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California's complex fault system
Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
Time‐dependent renewal‐model probabilities when date of last earthquake is unknown
New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US
USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could experience a damaging earthquake, emphasizing seismic hazards span a significant part of the country.