Nicholas van der Elst

The clearest statistical signal in aftershock locations is that most aftershocks occur close to their mainshocks. More precisely, aftershocks are triggered at distances following a power‐law decay in distance (Felzer and Brodsky, 2006). This distance decay kernel is used in epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) modeling and is typically assumed to be isotropic, even though individual...

The Mw 6.4 Southwest Puerto Rico Earthquake of 7 January 2020 was accompanied by a robust fore‐ and aftershock sequence. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has issued regular aftershock forecasts for more than a year since the mainshock, available on a public webpage. Forecasts were accompanied by interpretive and informational material, published in English and Spanish. Informational...

We describe recent improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS), which continues to represent our most advanced and complete earthquake forecast in terms of relaxing segmentation assumptions and representing multifault ruptures, elastic‐rebound effects, and spatiotemporal clustering (the latter to represent aftershocks and otherwise...

The earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution is characterized by the b-value, which describes the relative frequency of large versus small earthquakes. It has been suggested that changes in b-value after an earthquake can be used to discriminate whether that earthquake is part of a foreshock sequence or a more typical mainshock-aftershock sequence, with a decrease in b-value heralding...

Abstract Aftershocks (earthquakes clustered spatially and chronologically near the occurrence of a causative earthquake) are ongoing in southwestern Puerto Rico after a series of earthquakes, which include a magnitude 6.4 earthquake that occurred near Barrio Indios, Guayanilla, on January 7, 2020, and affected the surrounding area. This report estimates the expected duration of these...

Rapid seismic deployments following large earthquakes capture ephemeral near‐field recordings of aftershocks and ambient noise that can provide valuable data for seismological studies. The U.S. Geological Survey installed 19 temporary seismic stations following the 4 July 2019 Mw 6.4 and 6 July 2019 (UTC) Mw 7.1 earthquakes near the city of Ridgecrest, California. The stations record the

Communicating probabilities of natural hazards to varied audiences is a notoriously difficult task. Many of these challenges were encountered during the 2016 Bombay Beach, California, swarm of ~100 2≤M≤4.3 earthquakes, which began on 26 September 2016 and lasted for several days. The swarm’s proximity to the southern end of the San Andreas fault caused concern that a larger earthquake...

Earthquake swarms present a challenge for operational earthquake forecasting because they are driven primarily by transient external processes, such as fluid flow, the behavior and duration of which are difficult to predict. In this study, we develop a swarm duration model to estimate how long a swarm is likely to last based on actuarial statistics of previous swarms in a given region...

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Reasenberg and Jones (1989) introduced a statistical model for aftershock rate following a mainshock along with estimates of “generic” California parameter values based on past aftershock sequences. The Reasenberg and Jones (1989) model has been used for decades to issue aftershock forecasts following M≥5 mainshocks in California. Here, we update the “generic” parameters for California...

Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) catalogs generated from the 3rd Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) model are unique in that they are the first to combine a complex, fault-based long-term forecast with short-term earthquake clustering statistics. We present Turing-style tests to examine whether these synthetic catalogs can successfully imitate observed...

Aftershocks often occur within cascades of triggered seismicity in which each generation of aftershocks triggers an additional generation, and so on. The rate of earthquakes in any particular generation follows Omori's law, going approximately as 1/t. This function decays rapidly, but is heavy-tailed, and aftershock sequences may persist for long times at a rate that is difficult to...