Sarah Minson is a research geophysicist in the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Science Center in Moffett Field, California. She uses probabilistic inference to understand earthquakes and how uncertainty impacts our understanding of natural hazards.
Sarah’s research attempts to understand not only how faults slip, but also to understand what we can and cannot determine about earthquake ruptures and how these uncertainties affect our estimates of potential earthquake impacts.
She has also studied earthquake early warning to determine what kinds of warning are possible and what kind of accuracy can be achieved.
In addition to her research, Sarah participates in outreach activities to communicate her research results to the public, media, and stakeholders. She was a 2020 IRIS/SSA distinguished lecturer and is the recipient of several honors including a 2014 Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE), which is the highest honor bestowed by the U.S. government on outstanding scientists and engineers beginning their independent careers.
Professional Experience
2014 – Present Research Geophysicist, U.S. Geological Survey
2014 Postdoctoral Fellow, California Institute of Technology
2011 – 2013 Mendenhall Postdoctoral Fellow, U.S. Geological Survey
Education and Certifications
2010 Ph.D. in Geophysics, California Institute of Technology
Thesis: “A Bayesian Approach to Earthquake Source Studies ”2005 M.S. in Geophysics, California Institute of Technology
2003 B.A. in Geophysics with Highest Distinction in General Scholarship, University of California, Berkeley
Honors Thesis: “Source Mechanisms of Volcanic Induced Seismicity”
Honors and Awards
2021, 2021, 2019, 2016 U.S. Geological Survey STAR Award
2020 U.S. Geological Survey Superior Service Award “In recognition of her outstanding contributions to the Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).”
2020 IRIS/SSA Distinguished Lectureship
2018 – 2022 Kavli Fellow (National Academy of Sciences and The Kavli Foundation)
2014 Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE)
2011 – 2013 U.S. Geological Survey Mendenhall Fellowship
2009 Outstanding Student Paper Award – AGU Fall Meeting
2006 – 2009 NASA Earth System Science Fellowship
2003 – 2004 Gutenberg Fellowship, California Institute of Technology
2002 – 2003 Ramsden Fellowship, University of California, Berkeley
2003 Departmental Citation in Recognition of Distinguished Undergraduate Accomplishment, University of California, Berkeley
2003 Outstanding Woman Student Award, Association of Women Geoscientists
2002 Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship, University of California, Berkeley
Science and Products
External Grants - Overview
Earthquake Early Warning – Fine-Tuning for Best Alerts
What to expect when you are expecting earthquake early warning
Real-time earthquake detection and alerting behavior of PLUM ground-motion-based early warning in the United States
Alert optimization of the PLUM earthquake early warning algorithm for the western United States
The impact of 3D finite‐fault information on ground‐motion forecasting for earthquake early warning
Imaging the next Cascadia earthquake: Optimal design for a seafloor GNSS- A network
A framework for evaluating earthquake early warning for an infrastructure network: An idealized case study of a northern California rail system
Commentary: The role of geodetic algorithms for earthquake early warning in Cascadia
Shaking is almost always a surprise: The earthquakes that produce significant ground motion
Kinematics of fault slip associated with the July 4-6 2019 Ridgecrest, Californai earthquakes sequence
Real-time performance of the PLUM earthquake early warning method during the 2019 M6.4 and M7.1 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquakes
How often can Earthquake Early Warning systems alert sites with high intensity ground motion?
Coseismic slip and early afterslip of the M6.0 August 24, 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake
Science and Products
- Science
External Grants - Overview
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides support for research that will assist in achieving the goals of the Earthquake Hazards Program. The goal is to mitigate earthquake losses that can occur in many parts of the nation by providing earth science data and assessments essential for land-use planning, engineering design, and emergency preparedness decisions.Earthquake Early Warning – Fine-Tuning for Best Alerts
Release Date: OCTOBER 8, 2019 The goal of an earthquake early warning (EEW) system is to provide an alert to people and automatic systems after an earthquake begins but before the shaking reaches their location. As the USGS and its partners are developing an EEW system, called ShakeAlert®, for the West Coast, the benefits, costs, capabilities, and limitations are being investigated. Two recent... - Publications
Filter Total Items: 29
What to expect when you are expecting earthquake early warning
We present a strategy for earthquake early warning (EEW) alerting that focuses on providing users with a target level of performance for their shaking level of interest (for example, ensuring that users receive warnings for at least 95 per cent of the occurrences of that shaking level). We explore the factors that can affect the accuracy of EEW shaking forecasts including site conditions (which caAuthorsSarah E. Minson, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Jessie Kate Saunders, Sara McBride, Stephen Wu, Annemarie S. Baltay, Kevin R. MilnerReal-time earthquake detection and alerting behavior of PLUM ground-motion-based early warning in the United States
We examine the real‐time earthquake detection and alerting behavior of the Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM) earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm and compare PLUM’s performance with the real‐time performance of the current source‐characterization‐based ShakeAlert System. In the United States (U.S.), PLUM uses a two‐station approach to detect earthquakes. Once a detection is confirmedAuthorsJessie Kate Saunders, Sarah E. Minson, Annemarie S. Baltay, Julian J Bunn, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Deborah L. Kilb, Colin T O'Rourke, Mitsuyuki Hoshiba, Yuki KoderaAlert optimization of the PLUM earthquake early warning algorithm for the western United States
We determine an optimal alerting configuration for the propagation of local undamped motion (PLUM) earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm for use by the U.S. ShakeAlert system covering California, Oregon, and Washington. All EEW systems should balance the primary goal of providing timely alerts for impactful or potentially damaging shaking while limiting alerts for shaking that is too low to beAuthorsElizabeth S. Cochran, Jessie Kate Saunders, Sarah E. Minson, Julian Bunn, Annemarie S. Baltay, Debi Kilb, Colin T O'Rourke, Mitsuyuki Hoshiba, Yuki KoderaThe impact of 3D finite‐fault information on ground‐motion forecasting for earthquake early warning
We identify aspects of finite‐source parameterization that strongly affect the accuracy of estimated ground motion for earthquake early warning (EEW). EEW systems aim to alert users to impending shaking before it reaches them. The U.S. West Coast EEW system, ShakeAlert, currently uses two algorithms based on seismic data to characterize the earthquake’s location, magnitude, and origin time, treatiAuthorsJessica R. Murray, Eric M. Thompson, Annemarie S. Baltay, Sarah E. MinsonImaging the next Cascadia earthquake: Optimal design for a seafloor GNSS- A network
The Cascadia subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest of the United States of America capable of producing magnitude ∼9 earthquakes, likely often accompanied by tsunamis. An outstanding question in this region is the degree and spatial extent of interseismic strain accumulation on the subduction megathrust. Seafloor geodetic methods combining GNSS and underwater acoustic ranging (GNSS-A) are capabAuthorsEileen L. Evans, Sarah E. Minson, David ChadwellA framework for evaluating earthquake early warning for an infrastructure network: An idealized case study of a northern California rail system
Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems provide a few to tens of seconds of warning before shaking hits a site. Despite the recent rapid developments of EEW systems around the world, the optimal alert response strategy and the practical benefit of using EEW are still open-ended questions, especially in areas where EEW systems are new or have not yet been deployed. Here, we use a case study of a raiAuthorsSarah E. Minson, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Stephen Wu, Shunta NodaCommentary: The role of geodetic algorithms for earthquake early warning in Cascadia
The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system issues public alerts in California and will soon extend to Oregon and Washington. The Cascadia subduction zone presents significant new challenges and opportunities for EEW. Initial publications suggested that EEW algorithms based on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data could provide improved warning for intraslab events and dramaticalAuthorsJeffrey McGuire, Sarah E. Minson, Jessica R. Murray, Benjamin A. BrooksShaking is almost always a surprise: The earthquakes that produce significant ground motion
Although small earthquakes are expected to produce weak shaking, ground motion is highly variable and there are outlier earthquakes that generate more shaking than expected—sometimes significantly more. We explore datasets of M 0.5–8.3 earthquakes to determine the relative impact of frequent, smaller-magnitude earthquakes that rarely produce strong ground motion, to rare, large earthquakes that alAuthorsSarah E. Minson, Annemarie S. Baltay, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Sara McBride, Kevin R. MilnerKinematics of fault slip associated with the July 4-6 2019 Ridgecrest, Californai earthquakes sequence
The 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence produced observable crustal deformation over much of central and southern California, as well as surface rupture over several tens of kilometers. To obtain a detailed picture of the fault slip involved in the 4 July M 6.4 foreshock and 6 July M 7.1 mainshock, we combine strong‐motion seismic waveforms with crustal deformation observations to obtAuthorsFred Pollitz, Jessica R. Murray, Jerry L. Svarc, Charles Wicks, Evelyn Roeloffs, Sarah E. Minson, Katherine Scharer, Katherine J. Kendrick, Kenneth W. Hudnut, Johanna Nevitt, Benjamin A. Brooks, David MencinReal-time performance of the PLUM earthquake early warning method during the 2019 M6.4 and M7.1 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquakes
We evaluate the timeliness and accuracy of ground‐motion‐based earthquake early warning (EEW) during the July 2019 M6.4 and 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquakes. In 2018, we began retrospective and internal real‐time testing of the propagation of local undamped motion (PLUM) method for earthquake warning in California, Oregon, and Washington, with the potential that PLUM might one day be included in the ShaAuthorsSarah E. Minson, Jessie Kate Saunders, Julian Bunn, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Annemarie S. Baltay, Deborah L. Kilb, Mitsuyuki Hoshiba, Yuki KoderaHow often can Earthquake Early Warning systems alert sites with high intensity ground motion?
Although numerous Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) algorithms have been developed we still lack a detailed understanding of how often and under what circumstances useful ground motion alerts can be provided to end-users. Here we analyze the alerting performance of the PLUM, EPIC and FinDer algorithms by running them retrospectively on the seismic strong motion data of the 219 earthquakes in Japan siAuthorsM.-A. Meier, Y. Kodera, M. Bose, A. I. Chung, M. Hoshiba, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Sarah E. Minson, E. Hauksson, T. HeatonCoseismic slip and early afterslip of the M6.0 August 24, 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake
We employ strong motion seismograms and static offsets from the Global Positioning System, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, and other measurements in order to derive a coseismic slip and afterslip model of the M6.0 24 August 2014 South Napa earthquake. This earthquake ruptured an ∼13‐km‐long portion of the West Napa fault with predominantly right‐lateral strike slip. In the kinematic seisAuthorsFred Pollitz, Jessica R. Murray, Sarah E. Minson, Charles W. Wicks, Jerry L. Svarc, Benjamin A. Brooks - News