Publications

Earthquake swarms present a challenge for operational earthquake forecasting because they are driven primarily by transient external processes, such as fluid flow, the behavior and duration of which are difficult to predict. In this study, we develop a swarm duration model to estimate how long a swarm is likely to last based on actuarial statistics of previous swarms in a given region...

The Samoan islands are an archipelago hosting a quarter million people mostly residing in three major islands, Savai'i and Upolu (Samoa), and Tutuila (American Samoa). The islands have experienced sea level rise by 2–3 mm/year during the last half century. The rate, however, has dramatically increased following the Mw 8.1 Samoa‐Tonga earthquake doublet (megathrust + normal faulting) in...

Three prolific earthquake swarms and numerous smaller ones have occurred since 1980 in the Mesozoic igneous plutonic rocks of the Perris block of the Peninsular Ranges, Southern California. The major swarms occurred in 1980–1981, 1983–1984, and 2016–2018, with the latest swarm still ongoing. These swarms have no clear mainshock, with the largest events of ML 3.6, ML 3.7, and Mw 4.4. Each

Quantitative landslide risk assessment is a key step in creating appropriate land use policies. The forced migration of those displaced by recent events in Syria has highlighted the need for studies to guide humanitarian aid and resettlement policies. In 2011, armed conflict in the region precipitated the largest refugee crisis in a generation. Over 1.5 million displaced Syrians now...

An important predictive variable for site amplification is the site dominant frequency (⁠ƒd⁠). At seismic monitoring stations, ƒd can be calculated from the peak of the horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs) obtained from earthquake recordings (eHVSR). For other sites, ƒd can be estimated from microseismic (mHVSR) observations. We compare the ƒd values derived from eHVSR (5%...

Recent increases in earthquake occurrence rates in Oklahoma have been linked to the injection of large volumes of saltwater, a byproduct of oil and gas extraction. Here we present a detailed study of remote earthquake triggering in an area of active injection‐induced seismicity in northern Oklahoma using data from the LArge‐n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma (LASSO) temporary array and nearby...

The Arbuckle Group is the principal reservoir used for wastewater disposal in Oklahoma. In Osage County—a seismically quiet part of the state—continuous measurements of fluid pressure reveal that pressure in the reservoir is increasing by at least 5 kPa annually and sometimes at a much higher rate. Tidal analysis reveals that fluid level changes lead the local strain tides, with no...

We determine earthquake stress drops directly from the Arias intensity database of NGA-West2. Arias intensity (Arias, 1970) is an engineering measure proportional to the integral of the absolute value of acceleration squared, over the significant duration of the signal. As such, it is closely related to root-mean-square acceleration, and can readily be connected to earthquake stress drop...

The Mw 6.0 South Napa earthquake of August 24, 2014, produced complex and extensive surface faulting and other ground deformation features. Following the event, geologists made more than 1,200 field observations at locations where tectonic faulting and ground failure produced visible deformation that fractured and disturbed the ground surface. At a few locations, large-scale, detailed...

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) technology aims to engineer a productive geothermal reservoir in regions of hot, but low permeability, rocks. In any EGS operation, the rock mass requires stimulation by high pressure injection of fluids, which has the potential to induce seismicity. To address the seismic hazard specifically, a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is often...

Summary In June, 2017, we acquired seismic data along five linear profiles at three British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority (BC Hydro, a Canadian provincial Crown Corporation) dam sites (John Hart, Ladore, and Strathcona Dams) on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. We also attempted to acquire linear seismic profiles at two additional BC Hydro dam sites (Ruskin Dam and Stave...

The earthquake activity in Oklahoma and Kansas that began in 2008 reflects the most widespread instance of induced seismicity observed to date. We develop a reservoir model to calculate the hydrologic conditions associated with the activity of 902 saltwater disposal wells injecting into the Arbuckle aquifer. Estimates of basement fault stressing conditions inform a rate‐and‐state...