Fall 2026 Highlights from EESC’s Disease Decision Analysis and Research Group
USGS scientists of the Disease Decision Analysis and Research (DDAR) group and their collaborators support the management of wildlife diseases in close coordination with state, federal, and tribal partners. DDAR efforts with decision makers enable rapid response to both persistent and emerging infectious disease issues. Learn more about the recent activities of this team below.
Data Gaps in Avian Influenza Host Dynamics
Bird species that show combinations of high‑risk traits, such as gregarious flocking, colonial nesting, scavenging behavior, or reliance on aquatic habitats, are more consistently associated with elevated exposure and transmission potential of current strains of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). USGS and partners have developed a qualitative multivariate framework that ranks species along an infection‑response continuum to give agencies a practical basis for deciding where early detection efforts, wetland‑specific assessments, and biosecurity measures will have the greatest payoff. These findings equip wildlife managers with more precise criteria to tailor surveillance strategies, anticipate which species may act as amplifiers or vulnerable sentinels, and strengthen preparedness for HPAI outbreaks across diverse bird communities.
Chronic Wasting Disease Research Updates
Proactive Planning for Vermont
In July of 2026, USGS, the University of Vermont, and Vermont Department of Fish and Wildlife released developed a proactive prevention and response plan in anticipation of the eventual detection of CWD. CWD has not yet reached Vermont, and state and federal agencies worked together from 2023 to 2025 to develop a proactive plan for when it does. Using a structured decision‑making process, the team evaluated more than 256 possible management strategies with models that assessed deer populations, disease spread, hunter behavior, forest health, economic effects, and agriculture. With the insights generated by the structured decision-making process and the results of the analyses, the participating agencies were able to identify a preferred strategy and outline the elements of a proactive response plan.
Read the study: Decision analysis in support of proactive planning for chronic wasting disease in Vermont, USA | U.S. Geological Survey
Expanding Surveillance Tools to Western States
The Surveillance Optimization Project for Chronic Wasting Disease (SOP4CWD) is a North American collaboration established to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of CWD surveillance. This collaboration is led by Cornell University and partnering wildlife agencies, including USGS. SOP4CWD’s central tool, the secure CWD Data Warehouse, enables state, provincial, and tribal agencies to standardize, store, share, and analyze CWD data using advanced models and visualizations that support informed decision making. Building on its original Hazard Model, which was tailored to white‑tailed deer in eastern habitats, SOP4CWD is working with DDAR, the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (WAFWA), and state and provincial agencies to expand into Western states and provinces. The goal is to improve coverage across diverse landscapes and cervid species, ensuring that agencies throughout the continent have access to optimized, science‑driven surveillance strategies.
Evaluating Feeding Strategies in Washington
A three‑day workshop involving Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, the Yakama Nation, and U.S. Geological Survey decision analysts evaluated management strategies for the Yakima feed sites. Washington has banned private wildlife feeding and hunting baiting but still operates five winter elk feed sites in the Yakima Herd Unit, raising concerns about disease spread. Elk feeding, however, has tradeoffs: it reduces human‑elk conflicts, is popular with the public, and supports higher elk populations beneficial for hunting and tribal harvest. Considering all agency concerns over a 20‑year horizon, the status quo (feeding at five sites) was the lowest‑performing strategy, while emergency‑only feeding ranked as the best overall. Strategies that reduce feeding help minimize disease spread but increase human‑elk conflict, illustrating a central tradeoff. Next steps include further evaluation of the explored strategies, broader engagement with stakeholders and staff, and preparing information for public communication about future elk feeding decisions.
More Publication and Presentation Highlights
Amphibian Disease Research Insights
At the July 2026 Northeast Partners in Amphibian and Reptile Conservation (NE PARC) annual meeting, EESC scientist Elise Edwards presented results of cooperative USGS amphibian disease research with Northeast US refuges and parks on Ranavirus and fungal pathogens (Batrachochytrim dendrobatidis (Bd) and B. salamandrivorans (Bsal)) which have emerged as major threats to amphibians. Research findings provide important insights including:
- Disease risk is influenced by local environmental factors, not just proximity, which means managers must assess each wetland individually.
- Proactive and early detection strategies are the most effective for preventing the spread of emerging diseases like Bsal.
- Practical guidance for planning disease sampling and surveillance, helping managers detect and respond to new disease threats more effectively.
Understanding these disease dynamics and environmental influences enables wildlife managers to tailor their monitoring and intervention strategies, improving outcomes for amphibian populations and preventing regional disease outbreaks.
Enhancing One Health Outcomes with Decision Analysis
On August 6, 2026, EESC scientist Jon Cook presented at the Center for Disease Control’s Zoonoses and One Health Updates (ZOHU) monthly call on behalf of the DDAR team. His presentation, “Enhancing One Health outcomes with decision analysis: Case studies across wildlife disease systems,” reached over 600 unique viewers, including veterinarians, physicians, nurses, epidemiologists, and others who work on One Health issues at the human-animal-environment interface. Additionally, the call was recorded for continuing education and will be available on the ZOHU Call website for two years.
Watch the recording: ZOHU Call Webinars - August 2026
Avian Mortality Assessment Tool
USGS and partners have released a new decision tool to help natural resource managers determine appropriate survey methods to best estimate losses during marine bird mortality events ranging from disease outbreaks to anthropogenic impacts. The tool promotes more consistent and robust data collection by guiding users through key decision points such as species prioritization, spatial extent, survey design, and detection limitations. By applying this adaptable framework and prioritizing thorough, well‑coordinated data collection, managers can strengthen mortality response capacity across diverse jurisdictions and ensure more reliable, science‑based insights that ultimately support effective marine bird conservation and ecosystem management.
Read the study: A practical decision tool for marine bird mortality assessments
Enzootic Disease Effects
USGS, University of Vermont, and Pennsylvania State University researchers investigated how persistent, low-level (enzootic) diseases - those that remain in wildlife populations over time - can have subtle but significant impacts on host survival. Study results show that even when individual survival costs are small, their cumulative effect can lead to substantial reductions in population size over the long term. This research highlights that enzootic diseases, which may not cause dramatic die-offs, can still threaten wildlife populations by gradually reducing survival rates and reproductive success.
Workshops and Trainings
In addition to projects, DDAR also offers training to both internal and external audiences. Here are a few recent and upcoming offerings:
Structured Decision-Making Rapid Risk Assessment. Theme: Risk mitigation for an unknown amphibian pathogen in the pet trade. Virtual. January 4-23, 2026.
Structured Decision-Making Rapid Prototyping Workshop. Theme: Management of chronic wasting disease in the Yakima elk herd. Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Yakima, Washington. January 23-26, 2026.
Decision Analysis: Tools. Virtual offering through the National Conservation Training Center in Shepherdstown, West Virginia. March 3-19, 2026.
Structured Decision-Making Task Force Meeting. Theme: Management of chronic wasting disease in Vermont. Vermont Fish and Wildlife Department, Montpelier, Vermont. September 29, 2026.
Our Team
Principal Investigators at USGS Eastern Ecological Science Center
Jonathan D. Cook, Research Wildlife Biologist
Evan H. Campbell Grant, Research Wildlife Biologist
Howard Ginsberg (Retired), Emeritus Scientist
Michael C. Runge, Research Ecologist
Diann J. Prosser, Research Wildlife Biologist
Collaborators
Larissa Bailey, Associate Professor, Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation, Colorado State University
Richard E.W. Berl, Research Social Scientist, National Wildlife Health Center, USGS
Riley Bernard, Assistant Professor, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming
Molly Bletz, Assistant Professor, Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Penn State University
Janelle Couret, Assistant Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Rhode Island
Graziella V. DiRenzo, Assistant Unit Leader, USGS, Massachusetts Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit
Johanna Harvey, Assistant Professor, Department of Natural Resources Science, University of Rhode Island
Brittany Mosher, Assistant Professor, Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont
Jennifer Mullinax, Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland
Jeffery Sullivan, Biologist, USGS, Eastern Ecological Science Center
Noelle Thompson, Western Interagency Wildlife Health Specialist, Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies
Claire Teitelbaum, Assistant Unit Leader, USGS, Georgia Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit
Postdoctoral and Student Researchers
Matthew Gonnerman, USGS Visiting Scientist and Postdoctoral Researcher at University of Maryland
Riley Mummah, Mendenhall Postdoctoral Researcher, USGS, Eastern Ecological Science Center
Isabella Ragonese, USGS Visiting Scientist and Postdoctoral Researcher at University of Massachusetts, Amherst
Elias Rosenblatt, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Minnesota
Annabelle Stanley, PhD Student, University of Vermont
Alexis L. White, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Rhode Island