A requirement for managing a species, be it a common native species, a species of conservation concern, or an invasive species, is having some information on its distribution and potential drivers of distribution. Branch scientists have been tackling the question of where these types of species are and where they might be in the future.
Focus species are as varied as the invasive tamarisk, Russian olive, Africanized honey bee and nutria to the federally threatened Lesser Prairie chicken and others. These and other species are modeled at a variety of spatial scales, from park or wildlife refuge to global levels. Models use various predictor layers that can include current and future climate layers (near- and long-term projections), remote-sensing derivatives (such as MODIS phenology metrics), land cover, topography, and anthropogenic features.
Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM) - Principal Investigator - Catherine Jarnevich
Branch scientists have developed the Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM), a modeling facility for collaborative research both within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and with the wider research community. The facility provides a collaborative working environment for up to 20 scientists from within the USGS and the wider research community. There are networked, wireless computing facilities with the ability to run and test various models (e.g., Maxent, Boosted Regression Trees, Logistic Regression, MARS, Random Forest) for a variety of spatial scales (county, state, region, nation, or global). These techniques use predictor layers from MODIS time-series data as well as current and future climate layers (near- and long-term projections). The main purpose of the RAM is to bring together remote sensing and climate forecasting experts, habitat modelers, field ecologists, and land managers in a synergistic environment.
Developing Ecological Forecasting Models for Invasive Species - Principal Investigator - Catherine Jarnevich
Forecasts of where species might be and what impacts they may have are necessary for management of invasive species. Researchers at FORT are using various approaches to provided needed information to resource managers to combat invasive plants, animals, and disease organisms.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM)
Developing Ecological Forecasting Models for Invasive Species
Below are publications associated with this project.
Assessing range-wide habitat suitability for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken
Mapping current and potential distribution of non-native Prosopis juliflora in the Afar region of Ethiopia
Cross-scale assessment of potential habitat shifts in a rapidly changing climate
Regional distribution models with lack of proximate predictors: Africanized honeybees expanding north
From hybrid swarms to swarms of hybrids
The Hyper-Envelope Modeling Interface (HEMI): A Novel Approach Illustrated Through Predicting Tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) Habitat in the Western USA
VisTrails SAHM: visualization and workflow management for species habitat modeling
Predicting tamarisk current and future distribution
How will climate change affect the potential distribution of Eurasian tree sparrows Passer montanus in North America?
Challenges of predicting the potential distribution of a slow-spreading invader: a habitat suitability map for an invasive riparian tree
Improving national-scale invasion maps: Tamarisk in the western United States
Widespread plant species: Natives versus aliens in our changing world
- Overview
A requirement for managing a species, be it a common native species, a species of conservation concern, or an invasive species, is having some information on its distribution and potential drivers of distribution. Branch scientists have been tackling the question of where these types of species are and where they might be in the future.
Focus species are as varied as the invasive tamarisk, Russian olive, Africanized honey bee and nutria to the federally threatened Lesser Prairie chicken and others. These and other species are modeled at a variety of spatial scales, from park or wildlife refuge to global levels. Models use various predictor layers that can include current and future climate layers (near- and long-term projections), remote-sensing derivatives (such as MODIS phenology metrics), land cover, topography, and anthropogenic features.
Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM) - Principal Investigator - Catherine Jarnevich
Branch scientists have developed the Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM), a modeling facility for collaborative research both within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and with the wider research community. The facility provides a collaborative working environment for up to 20 scientists from within the USGS and the wider research community. There are networked, wireless computing facilities with the ability to run and test various models (e.g., Maxent, Boosted Regression Trees, Logistic Regression, MARS, Random Forest) for a variety of spatial scales (county, state, region, nation, or global). These techniques use predictor layers from MODIS time-series data as well as current and future climate layers (near- and long-term projections). The main purpose of the RAM is to bring together remote sensing and climate forecasting experts, habitat modelers, field ecologists, and land managers in a synergistic environment.
Cheatgrass turning red in the fall in the Squirrel Creek burn area, Medicine Bow National Forest. Photo by Amanda West, USGS. Public domain. Developing Ecological Forecasting Models for Invasive Species - Principal Investigator - Catherine Jarnevich
Forecasts of where species might be and what impacts they may have are necessary for management of invasive species. Researchers at FORT are using various approaches to provided needed information to resource managers to combat invasive plants, animals, and disease organisms.
- Science
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM)
Branch scientists have developed the Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM), a modeling facility for collaborative research both within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and with the wider research community. The facility provides a collaborative working environment for up to 20 scientists from within the USGS and the wider research community. There are networked, wireless computing facilities with...Developing Ecological Forecasting Models for Invasive Species
Forecasts of where species might be and what impacts they may have are necessary for management of invasive species. Researchers at FORT are using various approaches to provided needed information to resource managers to combat invasive plants, animals, and disease organisms. - Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 19Assessing range-wide habitat suitability for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken
Population declines of many wildlife species have been linked to habitat loss incurred through land-use change. Incorporation of conservation planning into development planning may mitigate these impacts. The threatened Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is experiencing loss of native habitat and high levels of energy development across its multijurisdictional range. Our goal wasAuthorsCatherine S. Jarnevich, Tracy R. Holcombe, Blake A. Grisham, Jennifer M. Timmer, Clint W. Boal, Matthew Butler, James C. Pitman, Sean Kyle, David Klute, Grant M. Beauprez, Allan Janus, William E. Van PeltMapping current and potential distribution of non-native Prosopis juliflora in the Afar region of Ethiopia
We used correlative models with species occurrence points, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, and topo-climatic predictors to map the current distribution and potential habitat of invasive Prosopis juliflora in Afar, Ethiopia. Time-series of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Indices (EVI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) with 250 m2 spatial resolutAuthorsTewodros Wakie, Paul H. Evangelista, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Melinda LaituriCross-scale assessment of potential habitat shifts in a rapidly changing climate
We assessed the ability of climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic variables to predict areas of high-risk for plant invasion and consider the relative importance and contribution of these predictor variables by considering two spatial scales in a region of rapidly changing climate. We created predictive distribution models, using Maxent, for three highly invasive plant species (Canada thistle,AuthorsCatherine S. Jarnevich, Tracy R. Holcombe, Elizabeth Bell, Matthew L. Carlson, Gino Graziano, Melinda Lamb, Steven S. Seefeldt, Jeffrey T. MorisetteRegional distribution models with lack of proximate predictors: Africanized honeybees expanding north
Species distribution models have often been hampered by poor local species data, reliance on coarse-scale climate predictors and the assumption that species–environment relationships, even with non-proximate predictors, are consistent across geographical space. Yet locally accurate maps of invasive species, such as the Africanized honeybee (AHB) in North America, are needed to support conservationAuthorsCatherine S. Jarnevich, Wayne E. Esaias, Peter L.A. Ma, Jeffery T. Morisette, Jaime E. Nickeson, Thomas J. Stohlgren, Tracy R. Holcombe, Joanne M. Nightingale, Robert E. Wolfe, Bin TanFrom hybrid swarms to swarms of hybrids
Science has shown that the introgression or hybridization of modern humans (Homo sapiens) with Neanderthals up to 40,000 YBP may have led to the swarm of modern humans on earth. However, there is little doubt that modern trade and transportation in support of the humans has continued to introduce additional species, genotypes, and hybrids to every country on the globe. We assessed the utility of sAuthorsThomas J. Stohlgren, Allen L. Szalanski, John F. Gaskin, Nicholas E. Young, Amanda M. West, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Amber TripodiThe Hyper-Envelope Modeling Interface (HEMI): A Novel Approach Illustrated Through Predicting Tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) Habitat in the Western USA
Habitat suitability maps are commonly created by modeling a species’ environmental niche from occurrences and environmental characteristics. Here, we introduce the hyper-envelope modeling interface (HEMI), providing a new method for creating habitat suitability models using Bezier surfaces to model a species niche in environmental space. HEMI allows modeled surfaces to be visualized and edited inAuthorsJim Graham, Nick Young, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Greg Newman, Paul Evangelista, Thomas J. StohlgrenVisTrails SAHM: visualization and workflow management for species habitat modeling
The Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) has been created to both expedite habitat modeling and help maintain a record of the various input data, pre- and post-processing steps and modeling options incorporated in the construction of a species distribution model through the established workflow management and visualization VisTrails software. This paper provides an overview of the VisTraiAuthorsJeffrey T. Morisette, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Tracy R. Holcombe, Colin B. Talbert, Drew A. Ignizio, Marian Talbert, Claudio Silva, David Koop, Alan Swanson, Nicholas E. YoungPredicting tamarisk current and future distribution
No abstract available.AuthorsC. S. Jarnevich, P. Evangelista, J. GrahamHow will climate change affect the potential distribution of Eurasian tree sparrows Passer montanus in North America?
Habitat suitability models have been used to predict the present and future potential distribution of a variety of species. Eurasian tree sparrows Passer montanus, native to Eurasia, have established populations in other parts of the world. In North America, their current distribution is limited to a relatively small region around its original introduction to St. Louis, Missouri. We combined dataAuthorsJim Graham, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Nick Young, Greg Newman, Thomas J. StohlgrenChallenges of predicting the potential distribution of a slow-spreading invader: a habitat suitability map for an invasive riparian tree
Understanding the potential spread of invasive species is essential for land managers to prevent their establishment and restore impacted habitat. Habitat suitability modeling provides a tool for researchers and managers to understand the potential extent of invasive species spread. Our goal was to use habitat suitability modeling to map potential habitat of the riparian plant invader, Russian oliAuthorsCatherine S. Jarnevich, Lindsay V. ReynoldsImproving national-scale invasion maps: Tamarisk in the western United States
New invasions, better field data, and novel spatial-modeling techniques often drive the need to revisit previous maps and models of invasive species. Such is the case with the at least 10 species of Tamarix, which are invading riparian systems in the western United States and expanding their range throughout North America. In 2006, we developed a National Tamarisk Map by using a compilation of preAuthorsCatherine S. Jarnevich, P. Evangelista, Thomas J. Stohlgren, Jeffrey T. MorisetteWidespread plant species: Natives versus aliens in our changing world
Estimates of the level of invasion for a region are traditionally based on relative numbers of native and alien species. However, alien species differ dramatically in the size of their invasive ranges. Here we present the first study to quantify the level of invasion for several regions of the world in terms of the most widely distributed plant species (natives vs. aliens). Aliens accounted for 51AuthorsT.J. Stohlgren, P. Pysek, J. Kartesz, M. Nishino, A. Pauchard, M. Winter, J. Pino, D.M. Richardson, J.R.U. Wilson, B.R. Murray, M.L. Phillips, L. Ming-yang, L. Celesti-Grapow, X. Font