Catherine Jarnevich is a Research Ecologist at the Fort Collins Science Center.
Catherine began working for the USGS while obtaining her doctorate in ecology in 2000. She gained skills in integrating disparate datasets of species’ location data and using these to generate spatially explicit models of species occurrence and abundance. Since that time she has developed a research program through the USGS Resource for Advanced Modeling to assist multiple agencies and groups with species distributions, focusing on invasive species. Catherine’s current research involves the application of habitat suitability models to answer different applied research and management questions for various species across a range of taxa and spatial scales. She has also been working with spatially explicit state and transition modeling to inform efficient landscape scale invasive plant management.
Science and Products
Future Aquatic Invaders of the Northeast U.S.: How Climate Change, Human Vectors, and Natural History Could Bring Southern and Western Species North
Developing A New Software Package to Enhance Species Distribution Model Functionality
Creating a North Central Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (NC RISCC) Management Network
Assessing the Proliferation, Connectivity, and Consequences of Invasive Fine Fuels
The Role of Climate in Shaping Invasive Plant Abundance across Different Spatial Locations
Species Distribution Modeling
Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM) and VisTrails/SAHM Training
For classes in the SAHM/Vis-trails software, please contact Catherine Jarnevich. The Resource for Advanced Modeling room is located within the USGS Fort Collins Science Center in Fort Collins, CO.
Documenting, Mapping, and Predicting Invasive Species Using the Fort Collins Science Center's RAM (Resource for Advanced Modeling)
Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM)
Developing Ecological Forecasting Models for Invasive Species
Facilitating the USGS Scientific Data Management Foundation by integrating the process into current scientific workflow systems
NEON Workshop: Operationalizing Ecological Forecasts
Occurrence data and models for woody riparian native and invasive plant species in the conterminous western USA
INHABIT species potential distribution across the contiguous United States (ver. 3.0, February 2023)
Data to create and evaluate distribution models for invasive species for different geographic extents
Simulation models for buffelgrass and alternative management strategies for Saguaro National Park, AZ
Presence and abundance data and models for four invasive plant species
Second Iteration of Range Wide Lesser Prairie Chicken Lek Habitat Suitability in 2019, Predicted in Southern Great Plains
INHABIT species potential distribution across the contiguous United States
State-and-Transition Simulation Models of Buffelgrass in Saguaro National Park (2014-2044) to explore ecological uncertainties
Data for modeling fountain grass and bishop's goutweed in the contiguous US
Non-native and synanthropic bird data derived from 2010-2012 Breeding Bird Survey and associated landscape metrics from 2011 NLCD
State-and-Transition Simulation Model of Buffelgrass in Saguaro National Park (2014-2044)
Data for cheatgrass mapping in Squirrel Creek Wildfire and Arapaho Wildfire, WY in 2014
Invaders at the doorstep: Using species distribution modeling to enhance invasive plant watch lists
Models combining multiple scales of inference capture hydrologic and climatic drivers of riparian tree distributions
Regional models do not outperform continental models for invasive species
Potential cheatgrass abundance within lightly invaded areas of the Great Basin
A framework to integrate innovations in invasion science for proactive management
Coupling process-based and empirical models to assess management options to meet conservation goals
INHABIT: A web-based decision support tool for invasive plant species habitat visualization and assessment across the contiguous United States
Grassification and fast-evolving fire connectivity and risk in the Sonoran Desert, United States
Challenges in updating habitat suitability models: An example with the lesser prairie-chicken
Modelling presence versus abundance for invasive species risk assessment
Tools and technologies for quantifying spread and impacts of invasive species
Assessing ecological uncertainty and simulation model sensitivity to evaluate an invasive plant species’ potential impacts to the landscape
High-throughput calculations of climatch scores
climatchR: An implementation of Climatch in R
Science and Products
- Science
Filter Total Items: 13
Future Aquatic Invaders of the Northeast U.S.: How Climate Change, Human Vectors, and Natural History Could Bring Southern and Western Species North
There are significant investments by states and resource agencies in the northeast U.S. for invasive aquatic species monitoring and management. These investments in jurisdictional waters help maintain their use for drinking, industry, and recreation. It is essential to understand the risks from invasive species, because once established, species can be costly to society and difficult or impossibleDeveloping A New Software Package to Enhance Species Distribution Model Functionality
Even when faced with uncertainty about future climate conditions, resource managers are tasked with making planning and adaptation decisions that impact important natural and cultural resources. Species distribution models are widely used by both researchers and managers to estimate species responses to climate change. These models combine data on environmental variables (e.g., temperature, precipCreating a North Central Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (NC RISCC) Management Network
Natural resource managers consistently identify invasive species as one of the biggest challenges for ecological adaptation to climate change. Yet climate change is often not considered during their management decision making. Given the many ways that invasive species and climate change will interact, such as changing fire regimes and facilitating the migration of high priority species, it is moreAssessing the Proliferation, Connectivity, and Consequences of Invasive Fine Fuels
Invasive annual grasses (fine fuels) are a significant challenge for land and wildlife management.The Role of Climate in Shaping Invasive Plant Abundance across Different Spatial Locations
Invasive plants are a major land management problem in the Western U.S. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is the most prominent and problematic invader in cold deserts, with negative effects on rangeland fire patterns, wildlife habitats, and forage/vegetation. Red brome (B. madritensis) is an invader in the Mojave Desert, and can similarly introduce a new fire patterns to sensitive warm desert scrub. TSpecies Distribution Modeling
A requirement for managing a species, be it a common native species, a species of conservation concern, or an invasive species, is having some information on its distribution and potential drivers of distribution. Branch scientists have been tackling the question of where these types of species are and where they might be in the future.Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM) and VisTrails/SAHM Training
For classes in the SAHM/Vis-trails software, please contact Catherine Jarnevich. The Resource for Advanced Modeling room is located within the USGS Fort Collins Science Center in Fort Collins, CO.
Documenting, Mapping, and Predicting Invasive Species Using the Fort Collins Science Center's RAM (Resource for Advanced Modeling)
The Resource for Advanced Modeling room provides a collaborative working environment for up to 20 scientists, supported with networked, wireless computing capability for running and testing various scientific models (e.g., Maxent, Boosted Regression Trees, Logistic Regression, MARS, Random Forest) at a variety of spatial scales, from county to global levels. Models use various predictor layers...Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM)
Branch scientists have developed the Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM), a modeling facility for collaborative research both within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and with the wider research community. The facility provides a collaborative working environment for up to 20 scientists from within the USGS and the wider research community. There are networked, wireless computing facilities with...Developing Ecological Forecasting Models for Invasive Species
Forecasts of where species might be and what impacts they may have are necessary for management of invasive species. Researchers at FORT are using various approaches to provided needed information to resource managers to combat invasive plants, animals, and disease organisms.Facilitating the USGS Scientific Data Management Foundation by integrating the process into current scientific workflow systems
Increasing attention is being paid to the importance of proper scientific data management and implementing processes that ensure that products being released are properly documented. USGS policies have been established to properly document not only publications, but also the related data and software. This relatively recent expansion of documentation requirements for data and software may presenNEON Workshop: Operationalizing Ecological Forecasts
Ecosystems are changing worldwide and critical decisions that affect ecosystem health and sustainability are being made every day. As ecologists, we have a responsibility to ensure that these decisions are made with access to the best available science. However, to bring this idea into practice, ecology needs to make a substantial leap forward towards becoming a more predictive science. Furthermor - Data
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Occurrence data and models for woody riparian native and invasive plant species in the conterminous western USA
We developed habitat suitability models for occurrence of three invasive riparian woody plant taxa of concern to Department of Interior land management agencies, as well as for three dominant native riparian woody taxa. Study taxa were non-native tamarisk (saltcedar; Tamarix ramosissima, Tamarix chinensis), Russian olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia) and Siberian elm (Ulmus pumila) and native plains/FrINHABIT species potential distribution across the contiguous United States (ver. 3.0, February 2023)
We developed habitat suitability models for invasive plant species selected by Department of Interior land management agencies. We applied the modeling workflow developed in Young et al. 2020 to species not included in the original case studies. Our methodology balanced trade-offs between developing highly customized models for a few species versus fitting non-specific and generic models for numerData to create and evaluate distribution models for invasive species for different geographic extents
We developed habitat suitability models for invasive plant species selected by Department of Interior land management agencies. We applied the modeling workflow developed in Young et al. 2020 to species not included in the original case studies. Our methodology balanced trade-offs between developing highly customized models for a few species versus fitting non-specific and generic models for numerSimulation models for buffelgrass and alternative management strategies for Saguaro National Park, AZ
This is a spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation model of buffelgrass dynamics and alternative management actions in Saguaro National Park, AZ. Buffelgrass is an invasive grass spreading in the park. This work built on previous efforts that first developed a state and transition simulation model linked to FARSITE fire behavior model to describe buffelgrass dynamics in the park and a sePresence and abundance data and models for four invasive plant species
We developed habitat suitability models for four invasive plant species of concern to Department of Interior land management agencies. We generally followed the modeling workflow developed in Young et al. 2020, but developed models both for two data types, where species were present and where they were abundant. We developed models using five algorithms with VisTrails: Software for Assisted HabitaSecond Iteration of Range Wide Lesser Prairie Chicken Lek Habitat Suitability in 2019, Predicted in Southern Great Plains
We developed a second iteration of habitat suitability models for Lesser Prairie Chicken leks, across their range. The first modeling iteration used lek data collected from 2002 to 2012, land cover data ranging from 2001 to 2013, and anthropogenic features from 2011. Our second iteration model used occurrence points from new lek surveys (2015 to 2019) and updated predictor layers to evaluate changINHABIT species potential distribution across the contiguous United States
We developed habitat suitability models for invasive plant species selected by Department of Interior land management agencies. We applied the modeling workflow developed in Young et al. 2020 to species not included in the original case studies. Our methodology balanced trade-offs between developing highly customized models for a few species versus fitting non-specific and generic models for numerState-and-Transition Simulation Models of Buffelgrass in Saguaro National Park (2014-2044) to explore ecological uncertainties
This is a spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation model of buffelgrass dynamics in Saguaro National Park, AZ. Buffelgrass is an invasive grass spreading in the park. The model represents uninvaded and invaded parts of the desert ecosystem and includes a connection to a fire behavior model. The model was built using the ST-Sim software platform linked to the FARSITE fire behavior model.Data for modeling fountain grass and bishop's goutweed in the contiguous US
This data bundle contains the merged data sets to create models for bishop's goutweed and fountaingrass using the VisTrails:SAHM [SAHM 2.1.0]. We developed species distribution models for both species following a workflow designed to balance automation and human intervention to produce models for invasive plant species of concern to U.S. land managers. Location data came from existing databases agNon-native and synanthropic bird data derived from 2010-2012 Breeding Bird Survey and associated landscape metrics from 2011 NLCD
Locations of and proportional abundance of non-native and synanthropic passerines were extracted from Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data from 2010-2012. Information characterizing the spatial variation and the associated amount, aggregation, and diversity of developed and agricultural land cover types was extracted from the National Land Cover Datasets of 2011. Data supported analyses in the publicatState-and-Transition Simulation Model of Buffelgrass in Saguaro National Park (2014-2044)
This is a spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation model of buffelgrass dynamics in Saguaro National Park. Buffelgrass is an invasive grass spreading in the park. The model represents uninvaded and invaded parts of the desert ecosystem including transition pathways related to management activities and includes a connection to a fire behavior model. The model was built using the ST-Sim soData for cheatgrass mapping in Squirrel Creek Wildfire and Arapaho Wildfire, WY in 2014
This data bundle contains some of the inputs, all of the processing instructions and all outputs from a single VisTrails/SAHM workflow. This model specifically includes field data of locations with >40% cover of cheatgrass (presence) and <40% cover of cheatgrass (absence) from two wildfire locations in Wyoming. Predictors included rasters derived from Landsat 8 imagery and from a dig - Publications
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Invaders at the doorstep: Using species distribution modeling to enhance invasive plant watch lists
Watch lists of invasive species that threaten a particular land management unit are useful tools because they can draw attention to invasive species at the very early stages of invasion when early detection and rapid response efforts are often most successful. However, watch lists typically rely on the subjective selection of invasive species by experts or on the use of spotty occurrence records.Models combining multiple scales of inference capture hydrologic and climatic drivers of riparian tree distributions
Predicting species geographic distributions is key to managing invasive species, conserving biodiversity, and understanding species' environmental requirements. Species distribution models (SDMs) commonly focus on climatic predictors, but other environmental factors can also be essential, particularly for species with specialized habitats defined by hydrologic, topographic, or edaphic conditions (Regional models do not outperform continental models for invasive species
Aim: Species distribution models can guide invasive species prevention and management by characterizing invasion risk across space. However, extrapolation and transferability issues pose challenges for developing useful models for invasive species. Previous work has emphasized the importance of including all available occurrences in model estimation, but managers attuned to local processes may bePotential cheatgrass abundance within lightly invaded areas of the Great Basin
ContextAnticipating where an invasive species could become abundant can help guide prevention and control efforts aimed at reducing invasion impacts. Information on potential abundance can be combined with information on the current status of an invasion to guide management towards currently uninvaded locations where the threat of invasion is high.ObjectivesWe aimed to support management by develoA framework to integrate innovations in invasion science for proactive management
Invasive alien species (IAS) are a rising threat to biodiversity, national security, and regional economies, with impacts in the hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars annually. Proactive or predictive approaches guided by scientific knowledge are essential to keeping pace with growing impacts of invasions under climate change. Although the rapid development of diverse technologies and approaches haCoupling process-based and empirical models to assess management options to meet conservation goals
Conservation lands face a mounting threat of ecosystem transformation and the loss of biodiversity from the invasion of fire-prone perennial and annual grasses. Managers must make difficult decisions to find efficient ways to expend limited resources to manage large and complex landscapes amidst substantial uncertainty regarding effective treatment strategies, climates, and invader-induced novel pINHABIT: A web-based decision support tool for invasive plant species habitat visualization and assessment across the contiguous United States
Narrowing the communication and knowledge gap between producers and users of scientific data is a longstanding problem in ecological conservation and land management. Decision support tools (DSTs), including websites or interactive web applications, provide platforms that can help bridge this gap. DSTs can most effectively disseminate and translate research results when producers and users collaboGrassification and fast-evolving fire connectivity and risk in the Sonoran Desert, United States
In the southwestern United States, non-native grass invasions have increased wildfire occurrence in deserts and the likelihood of fire spread to and from other biomes with disparate fire regimes. The elevational transition between desertscrub and montane grasslands, woodlands, and forests generally occurs at ∼1,200 masl and has experienced fast suburbanization and an expanding wildland-urban interChallenges in updating habitat suitability models: An example with the lesser prairie-chicken
Habitat loss from land-use change is one of the top causes of declines in wildlife species of concern. As such, it is critical to assess and reassess habitat suitability as land cover and anthropogenic features change for both monitoring and developing current information to inform management decisions. However, there are obstacles that must be overcome to develop consistent assessments through tiModelling presence versus abundance for invasive species risk assessment
AimInvasive species prevention and management can be guided by comparisons of invasion risk across space and among species. Species distribution models are widely used to assess invasion risk and typically estimate suitability for species presence. However, suitability for presence may not capture patterns of abundance and impact. We asked how models estimating suitability for presence versus suitTools and technologies for quantifying spread and impacts of invasive species
The need for tools and technologies for understanding and quantifying invasive species has never been greater. Rates of infestation vary on the species or organism being examined across the United States, and notable examples can be found. For example, from 2001 to 2003 alone, ash (Fraxinus spp.) mortality progressed at a rate of 12.97 km year −1 (Siegert et al. 2014), and cheatgrass (Bromus tectoAssessing ecological uncertainty and simulation model sensitivity to evaluate an invasive plant species’ potential impacts to the landscape
Ecological forecasts of the extent and impacts of invasive species can inform conservation management decisions. Such forecasts are hampered by ecological uncertainties associated with non-analog conditions resulting from the introduction of an invader to an ecosystem. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model tied to a fire behavior model to simulate the spread of buffelgrass (Cenchrus - Software
High-throughput calculations of climatch scores
Matching climate envelopes allows people to examine how potential invasive species may match habitats. This repository contains code for using the climatchR package for high-throughput calculations of climatch scores for species using GBIF data. Climatch is based upon the climatch algorithm as implemented through the climatchR package.climatchR: An implementation of Climatch in R
Matching climate envelopes of allows people to examine how potential invasive species may match habitats. The Australian government created Climatch to do allow for these comparisons. However, this webpage does not allow for readily scripting climate matching. Hence, the authors created climatchR, an R package (R Core Team 2020) implementing the climatch method in R. This was created to allow auto - News