Catherine Jarnevich, Ph.D.
Biography
Catherine began working for the USGS while obtaining her doctorate in ecology in 2000. She gained skills in integrating disparate datasets of species’ location data and using these to generate spatially explicit models of species occurrence and abundance. Since that time she has developed a research program through the USGS Resource for Advanced Modeling to assist multiple agencies and groups with species distributions, focusing on invasive species. Catherine’s current research involves the application of habitat suitability models to answer different applied research and management questions for various species across a range of taxa and spatial scales. She has also been working with spatially explicit state and transition modeling to inform efficient landscape scale invasive plant management.
Science and Products
Species Distribution Modeling
A requirement for managing a species, be it a common native species, a species of conservation concern, or an invasive species, is having some information on its distribution and potential drivers of distribution. Branch scientists have been tackling the question of where these types of species are and where they might be in the future.
Documenting, Mapping, and Predicting Invasive Species Using the Fort Collins Science Center's RAM (Resource for Advanced Modeling)
The Resource for Advanced Modeling room provides a collaborative working environment for up to 20 scientists, supported with networked, wireless computing capability for running and testing various scientific models (e.g., Maxent, Boosted Regression Trees, Logistic Regression, MARS, Random Forest) at a variety of spatial scales, from county to global levels. Models use various predictor layers...
Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM)
Branch scientists have developed the Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM), a modeling facility for collaborative research both within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and with the wider research community. The facility provides a collaborative working environment for up to 20 scientists from within the USGS and the wider research community. There are networked, wireless computing facilities...
Developing Ecological Forecasting Models for Invasive Species
Forecasts of where species might be and what impacts they may have are necessary for management of invasive species. Researchers at FORT are using various approaches to provided needed information to resource managers to combat invasive plants, animals, and disease organisms.
Facilitating the USGS Scientific Data Management Foundation by integrating the process into current scientific workflow systems
Increasing attention is being paid to the importance of proper scientific data management and implementing processes that ensure that products being released are properly documented. USGS policies have been established to properly document not only publications, but also the related data and software. This relatively recent expansion of documentation requirements for data and software may...
NEON Workshop: Operationalizing Ecological Forecasts
Ecosystems are changing worldwide and critical decisions that affect ecosystem health and sustainability are being made every day. As ecologists, we have a responsibility to ensure that these decisions are made with access to the best available science. However, to bring this idea into practice, ecology needs to make a substantial leap forward towards becoming a more predictive science....
Integrating ecological forecasting methods to improve applications for natural resource management: An invasive species example
Projecting the effects of climate change on plant and animal species distributions and abundance is critical to successful long‐term conservation and restoration efforts. There have been significant recent advances made in the areas of: (1) climate forecasts; (2) habitat niche modeling; (3) mechanistic modeling; and (4) observation techniques and networks. However, projections of biological...
State-and-Transition Simulation Models of Buffelgrass in Saguaro National Park (2014-2044) to explore ecological uncertainties
This is a spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation model of buffelgrass dynamics in Saguaro National Park, AZ. Buffelgrass is an invasive grass spreading in the park. The model represents uninvaded and invaded parts of the desert ecosystem and includes a connection to a fire behavior model. The model was built using the ST-Sim software platform linked to the FARSITE fire behavior...
Cheatgrass mapping in Squirrel Creek Wildfire, WY in 2014
This data bundle contains some of the inputs, all of the processing instructions and all outputs from two VisTrails/SAHM workflow. These models specifically include field data of locations with >40% cover of cheatgrass (presence) and <40% cover of cheatgrass (absence). Predictors included rasters derived from LandSat 8 imagery or from a digital elevation model.
Data associated with Sofaer and Jarnevich 'Accounting for sampling patterns reverses the relative importance of trade and climate for the global sharing of exotic plants'
These data were analyzed for the publication 'Accounting for sampling patterns reverses the relative importance of trade and climate for the global sharing of exotic plants'
Assessing ecological uncertainty and simulation model sensitivity to evaluate an invasive plant species’ potential impacts to the landscape
Ecological forecasts of the extent and impacts of invasive species can inform conservation management decisions. Such forecasts are hampered by ecological uncertainties associated with non-analog conditions resulting from the introduction of an invader to an ecosystem. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model tied to a fire behavior...
Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E.; Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Grissom, Perry; Backer, Dana M.; Frid, Leonardo A modeling workflow that balances automation and human intervention to inform invasive plant management decisions at multiple spatial scales
Predictions of habitat suitability for invasive plant species can guide risk assessments at regional and national scales and inform early detection and rapid-response strategies at local scales. We present a general approach to invasive species modeling and mapping that meets objectives at multiple scales. Our methodology is designed to balance...
Young, Nicholas E.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Sofaer, Helen; Pearse, Ian; Sullivan, Julia; Engelstad, Peder; Stohlgren, Thomas J. The development and delivery of species distribution models to inform decision-making
Information on where species occur is central to conservation and management decisions, but knowledge of distributions can be coarse or incomplete. Species distribution models provide a tool for mapping suitable habitat, and can produce credible, defensible, and repeatable predictive information with which to inform decisions. However, these...
Sofaer, Helen; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Pearse, Ian; Smyth, Regan L; Auer, Stephanie; Cook Gericke L; Edwards, Thomas C.; Guala, Gerald F.; Howard, Timothy G; Morisette, Jeffrey T; Hamilton, Healy Developing an expert elicited simulation model to evaluate invasive species and fire management alternatives
Invasive species can alter ecosystem properties and cause state shifts in landscapes. Resource managers charged with maintaining landscapes require tools to understand implications of alternative actions (or inactions) on landscape structure and function. Simulation models can serve as a virtual laboratory to explore these alternatives and their...
Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Young, Nicholas E.; Backer, Dana M.; Cline, Sarah A.; Frid, Leonardo; Grissom, Perry Not so normal normals: Species distribution model results are sensitive to choice of climate normals and model type
Species distribution models have many applications in conservation and ecology, and climate data are frequently a key driver of these models. Often, correlative modeling approaches are developed with readily available climate data; however, the impacts of the choice of climate normals is rarely considered. Here, we produced species distribution...
Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E. The area under the precision‐recall curve as a performance metric for rare binary events
Species distribution models are used to study biogeographic patterns and guide decision‐making. The variable quality of these models makes it critical to assess whether a model's outputs are suitable for the intended use, but commonly used evaluation approaches are inappropriate for many ecological contexts. In particular, unrealistically high...
Sofaer, Helen; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Jarnevich, Catherine S. Iterative models for early detection of invasive species across spread pathways
Species distribution models can be used to direct early detection of invasive species, if they include proxies for invasion pathways. Due to the dynamic nature of invasion, these models violate assumptions of stationarity across space and time. To compensate for issues of stationarity, we iteratively update regionalized species distribution models...
Cook, Gericke; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Warden, Melissa; Downing, Marla; Withrow, John; Leinwand, I. Evaluating potential distribution of high-risk aquatic invasive species in the water garden and aquarium trade at a global scale based on current established populations
Aquatic non‐native invasive species are commonly traded in the worldwide water garden and aquarium markets, and some of these species pose major threats to the economy, the environment, and human health. Understanding the potential suitable habitat for these species at a global scale and at regional scales can inform risk assessments and predict...
West, Amanda M.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Fuller, Pam; Young, Nicholas E. Integrating landscape simulation models with economic and decision tools for invasive species control
In managing invasive species, land managers and policy makers need information to help allocate scarce resources as efficiently and effectively as possible. Decisions regarding treatment methods, locations, effort, and timing can be informed by the integration of landscape simulation models with economic tools. State and transition simulation...
Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Sofaer, Helen; Cline, Sarah A.; Jarnevich, Catherine S. The relationship between invader abundance and impact
The impacts of invasive species generally increase with their abundance, but the form of invader abundance–impact relationships remain poorly described. We highlight the utility of abundance–impact curves for three questions. First, abundance–impact relationships can clarify whether prevention and management should focus on the species likely to...
Sofaer, Helen; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Pearse, Ian S. Modeling the distributions of tegu lizards in native and potential invasive ranges
Invasive reptilian predators can have substantial impacts on native species and ecosystems. Tegu lizards are widely distributed in South America east of the Andes, and are popular in the international live animal trade. Two species are established in Florida (U.S.A.) - Salvator merianae (Argentine black and white tegu) and Tupinambis teguixin...
Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Hayes, Mark; Fitzgerald, Lee A.; Yackel, Amy; Falk, Bryan; Collier, Michelle; Bonewell, Lea; Klug, Page; Naretto, Sergio; Reed, Robert A tale of two wildfires; testing detection and prediction of invasive species distributions using models fit with topographic and spectral indices
ContextDeveloping species distribution models (SDMs) to detect invasive species cover and evaluate habitat suitability are high priorities for land managers.ObjectivesWe tested SDMs fit with different variable combinations to provide guidelines for future invasive species model development based on transferability between landscapes....
West, Amanda M.; Evangelista, Paul H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Shulte, Darin