Publications

Estimating earthquake impacts using physical or empirical models is challenging because the three components of loss estimation-shaking, exposure, and vulnerabilities-entail inherent uncertainties. Loss modeling in near-real-time adds additional uncertainties, yet expectations for actionable information with a reasonable level of confidence in the results are real. The modeling...

This report describes geodetic and geologic information used to constrain deformation models of the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), a set of deformation models to interpret these data, and their implications for earthquake rates in the western United States. Recent updates provide a much larger data set of Global Positioning System crustal velocities than used in...

Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity solutions of the western United States (WUS) are compiled from several sources of field networks and data processing centers for the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). These solutions include both survey and continuous‐mode GPS velocity measurements. I follow the data processing procedure of Parsons et al. (2013) for...

Fault geometry and slip rates are key input data for geologic deformation models, which are a fundamental component of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHAs). However, geologic sources for PSHA have traditionally been limited to faults with field‐based slip rate constraints, which results in underrepresentation of known, but partially characterized, active faults. Here, we...

The Glacier Bay area in southeastern Alaska and British Columbia, encompassing Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, has experienced rapid glacier retreat since the end of the Little Ice Age in the mid-1800s. The impact that rapid deglaciation has had on the slope stability of valley walls and on the sedimentation of fans and deltas adjacent to fjords and inlets is an ongoing research...

Using images from an updated and expanded three-dimensional electrical conductivity synthesis model for the contiguous United States (CONUS), we highlight the key continent-scale geoelectric structures that are associated with the Precambrian assembly of southern Laurentia. Conductivity anomalies are associated with the Trans-Hudson orogen, the Penokean suture, the ca. 1.8–1.7 Ga...

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are relatively new technologies having first emerged as regional systems in the 1990s. Japan was the first nation to develop and implement a nationwide system in October 2007, and in the United States, ShakeAlert® became available on the entire length of the US West Coast in May 2021. Assessing how EEW is perceived and utilized by alert recipients...

As part of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) update planned for 2023, two databases were prepared to more completely represent Quaternary-active faulting across the western United States: the NSHM23 fault sections database (FSD) and earthquake geology database (EQGeoDB). In prior iterations of NSHM, fault sections were included only if a field-measurement-derived slip rate...

A change in surface loading causes the Earth’s surface to deform. Mass movements, such as debris flows, can cause a tilt large enough to be recorded by nearby instruments, but the signal is strongly dependent on the mass loading and subsurface parameters. Specifically designed sensors for such measurements (tiltmeters) are cumbersome to install. Alternatively, broadband seismometers...

Knowledge about local seismic site conditions provides critical information to account for site effects that are commonly observed in strong motion recordings. Certainly, other wave propagation effects can influence these observations, which are attributable to variations in material properties of the paths traveled by the waves, as well as the characteristics of the seismic source...

We describe the flexible multimethod seismic site characterization technique for obtaining shear-wave velocity (VS) profiles and derivative information, such as the time-averaged VS of the upper 30 m (VS30). Simply stated, the multimethod approach relies on the application of multiple independent noninvasive site characterization acquisition and analysis techniques utilized in a flexible...

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) routinely produces finite‐fault models following significant earthquakes. These models are spatiotemporal estimates of coseismic slip critical to constraining downstream response products such as ShakeMap ground motion estimates, Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake for Response loss estimates, and ground...