Publications

Recent advances in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) leverage physics‐based ground‐motion simulations to estimate seismic hazard, such as the CyberShake project. However, computational costs quickly escalate when performing PSHA for numerous faults or sites and can become prohibitively expensive. To reduce computational demands, CyberShake uses reciprocity and interpolates...

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) uses an empirical model developed with logistic regression (the ‘M1’ model) to rapidly assess debris-flow likelihood and to identify quantitative rainfall thresholds for debris flows after wildfire in the western United States. The M1 model was calibrated to a debris-flow inventory from southern California (United States) and has been applied throughout...

Landslides in deglaciating fjords pose a potential tsunami threat to nearby communities; however, processes contributing to long-term progressive rock damage and landslide conditioning remain poorly constrained in paraglacial settings. Here, we analyse the role of earthquake-induced rock mass damage over late Pleistocene to Holocene time scales, as a conditioning factor for modern...

Landslides pose a serious and ongoing threat to both human lives and infrastructure worldwide; therefore, it is of interest to predict where and when landslides are likely to occur. Advances in machine learning techniques have spurred numerous studies aimed at estimating relative landslide propensity, but are limited to spatial (as opposed to temporal) prediction due to the sparsity of...

As the largest low-relief basin in the western United States, the Great Salt Lake offers an opportunity to explore acoustic and sedimentary archives of earthquake ruptures in a shallow terminal basin. Here, we use subbottom compressed high intensity radiated pulse (Chirp) profiles and sedimentary cores to address questions related to how Great Salt Lake sediments respond to surface...

Understanding the spatial distribution of landslide prone-areas and what consequences they may have is important for risk management and land-use planning. In the United States, although landslides occur in every state, a comprehensive landslide risk assessment is still missing. Existing efforts, such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)’s National Risk Index, rely on...

Laboratory testing of digitizers and seismometers helps ensure that prior to deployment the instrumentation can produce high quality data and is operating within specifications. In this work we detail the software package called: the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL) Digitizer Test Suite. This Java software package provides several algorithms to verify various performance...

Using solar wind and ground magnetometer data for solar cycles 23–25, extreme-value power-law models are developed that quantify relationships between near-Earth solar wind speed and Sun-to-Earth transit times of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The models of near-Earth solar wind speed, conditional on ICME transit time, are (a) approximately stable for transit times as...

Subduction zones are important drivers of Earth's geochemical evolution; the presence of water within the subduction system has substantial implications for geohazards, including the style of seismicity and the volume of magma generated at arc volcanoes. We utilize estimates of pore fluid distributions in the outer-rise region of the Central American margin imaged using controlled-source...

To disseminate accurate and useful warnings, earthquake early warning (EEW) systems must quickly determine the size and location of an earthquake to estimate expected shaking. Traditional seismic‐based algorithms tend to underestimate the true magnitudes of large earthquakes, a phenomenon known as magnitude saturation. This limitation motivated the recent inclusion of Global Navigation...

Seismic design criteria for new buildings in the United States have historically focused on life safety performance objectives through minimizing the potential for structural collapse. Development of design criteria to meet this performance objective has evolved over time, leading to the current, risk-targeted maximum considered earthquake (MCER) design basis. Corresponding MCER seismic...

Using a list of sudden-commencement storms, the ring-current index, and 1-h near-Earth solar-wind measurements from solar cycles 20–25, we develop extreme-value statistical models relating storm intensity 𝐷 =max⁡{−𝐷⁢𝑠⁢𝑡} to the storm main-phase maximum duskward interplanetary electric field 𝐸. The conditional relationship 𝐷|𝐸 is demonstrably sublinear—linear models are confidently...