Estimating species response to environmental change is a key challenge for ecologists and a core mission of the USGS. Effective forecasting of species response requires models that are detailed enough to capture critical processes and at the same time general enough to allow broad application. This tradeoff is difficult to reconcile with most existing methods. We propose to extend and combine existing models that operate at different scales and with different levels of data complexity into a modeling framework that will allow robust estimation of population response to environmental change across a species’ range. This integrated modeling is now possible with the increasing development and application of population models in an extremely flexible and powerful statistical framework (hierarchical Bayesian modeling). These models will integrate data across multiple scales, providing critical insight into environmental control of population dynamics and a unique tool for forecasting effects of current and future environmental change. Although we will initially develop models for fish living in stream networks, our integrated modeling approach will be applicable to a wide range of species and could serve as a model for future modeling efforts.
Principal Investigator(s):
Benjamin Letcher (Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory, LSC)
Participant(s):
Robert K Al-Chokhachy (Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center)
Elise Zipkin (Patuxent Wildlife Research Center)
Elizabeth Marschall (Ohio State University)
Jim Peterson (Oregon State University)
Erin Rodgers (Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory, Leetown Science Center)
Andy Royle (Patuxent Wildlife Research Center)
Heather J. Lynch (Stony Brook University)
David Boughton (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
Steve Munch (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
Chris Jordan (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
Mark Scheuerell (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
Kevin See (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
James Thorson (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
Eric Ward (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
Michael Schaub (Swiss Ornithological Institute)
Ronald D Bassar (Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory, Leetown Science Center)
Krzysztof Sakrejda-Leavitt (Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory, Leetown Science Center)
Paul Schueller (Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory, Leetown Science Center)
Yoichiro Kanno (Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory, Leetown Science Center)
- Source: USGS Sciencebase (id: 52654b56e4b0d5a9feee1f87)
- Overview
Estimating species response to environmental change is a key challenge for ecologists and a core mission of the USGS. Effective forecasting of species response requires models that are detailed enough to capture critical processes and at the same time general enough to allow broad application. This tradeoff is difficult to reconcile with most existing methods. We propose to extend and combine existing models that operate at different scales and with different levels of data complexity into a modeling framework that will allow robust estimation of population response to environmental change across a species’ range. This integrated modeling is now possible with the increasing development and application of population models in an extremely flexible and powerful statistical framework (hierarchical Bayesian modeling). These models will integrate data across multiple scales, providing critical insight into environmental control of population dynamics and a unique tool for forecasting effects of current and future environmental change. Although we will initially develop models for fish living in stream networks, our integrated modeling approach will be applicable to a wide range of species and could serve as a model for future modeling efforts.
Principal Investigator(s):
Benjamin Letcher (Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory, LSC)Participant(s):
Robert K Al-Chokhachy (Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center)
Elise Zipkin (Patuxent Wildlife Research Center)
Elizabeth Marschall (Ohio State University)
Jim Peterson (Oregon State University)
Erin Rodgers (Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory, Leetown Science Center)
Andy Royle (Patuxent Wildlife Research Center)
Heather J. Lynch (Stony Brook University)
David Boughton (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
Steve Munch (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
Chris Jordan (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
Mark Scheuerell (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
Kevin See (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
James Thorson (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
Eric Ward (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
Michael Schaub (Swiss Ornithological Institute)
Ronald D Bassar (Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory, Leetown Science Center)
Krzysztof Sakrejda-Leavitt (Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory, Leetown Science Center)
Paul Schueller (Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory, Leetown Science Center)
Yoichiro Kanno (Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory, Leetown Science Center)- Source: USGS Sciencebase (id: 52654b56e4b0d5a9feee1f87)
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