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NEON Workshop: Operationalizing Ecological Forecasts

Ecosystems are changing worldwide and critical decisions that affect ecosystem health and sustainability are being made every day. As ecologists, we have a responsibility to ensure that these decisions are made with access to the best available science. However, to bring this idea into practice, ecology needs to make a substantial leap forward towards becoming a more predictive science
NEON Workshop: Operationalizing Ecological Forecasts

NEON Workshop: Operationalizing Ecological Forecasts

Ecosystems are changing worldwide and critical decisions that affect ecosystem health and sustainability are being made every day. As ecologists, we have a responsibility to ensure that these decisions are made with access to the best available science. However, to bring this idea into practice, ecology needs to make a substantial leap forward towards becoming a more predictive science
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Local-scale ecosystem resilience amid global-scale ocean change: the coral reef example

Coral reefs are massive, wave resistant structures found throughout the tropics, where they have long attracted attention for their beauty, ecological importance, and rich biological diversity. However, in recent years attention to these systems has focused on their downturn in health and the potential that they effectively could disappear within a century. Yet while many coral reefs...
Local-scale ecosystem resilience amid global-scale ocean change: the coral reef example

Local-scale ecosystem resilience amid global-scale ocean change: the coral reef example

Coral reefs are massive, wave resistant structures found throughout the tropics, where they have long attracted attention for their beauty, ecological importance, and rich biological diversity. However, in recent years attention to these systems has focused on their downturn in health and the potential that they effectively could disappear within a century. Yet while many coral reefs have
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Predicting the next high-impact insect invasion: Elucidating traits and factors determining the risk of introduced herbivorous insects on North American native plants

Non-native insect invasions increasingly cause widespread ecological and economic damage in natural and agricultural ecosystems. Non-native insects specialized for feeding on specific plant groups are particularly problematic as they can potentially eliminate an entire genus of native plant species across a wide area. For example, emerald ash borer has killed hundreds of millions of ash...
Predicting the next high-impact insect invasion: Elucidating traits and factors determining the risk of introduced herbivorous insects on North American native plants

Predicting the next high-impact insect invasion: Elucidating traits and factors determining the risk of introduced herbivorous insects on North American native plants

Non-native insect invasions increasingly cause widespread ecological and economic damage in natural and agricultural ecosystems. Non-native insects specialized for feeding on specific plant groups are particularly problematic as they can potentially eliminate an entire genus of native plant species across a wide area. For example, emerald ash borer has killed hundreds of millions of ash trees in
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Elucidating mechanisms underlying amphibian declines in North America using hierarchical spatial models

Amphibian populations are declining globally at unprecedented rates but statistically rigorous identification of mechanisms is lacking. Identification of reasons underlying large-scale declines is imperative to plan and implement effective conservation efforts. Most research on amphibian population decline has focused on local populations and local factors. However, the ubiquity of...
Elucidating mechanisms underlying amphibian declines in North America using hierarchical spatial models

Elucidating mechanisms underlying amphibian declines in North America using hierarchical spatial models

Amphibian populations are declining globally at unprecedented rates but statistically rigorous identification of mechanisms is lacking. Identification of reasons underlying large-scale declines is imperative to plan and implement effective conservation efforts. Most research on amphibian population decline has focused on local populations and local factors. However, the ubiquity of declines across
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Forecasting forest response to N deposition: integrating data from individual plant responses to soil chemistry with a continental-scale gradient analysis

Nitrogen deposition is altering forest dynamics, terrestrial carbon storage, and biodiversity. However, our ability to forecast how different tree species will respond to N deposition, especially key response thresholds, is limited by a lack of synthesis across spatial scales and research approaches. To develop our best understanding of N deposition impact on tree growth and survival, we...
Forecasting forest response to N deposition: integrating data from individual plant responses to soil chemistry with a continental-scale gradient analysis

Forecasting forest response to N deposition: integrating data from individual plant responses to soil chemistry with a continental-scale gradient analysis

Nitrogen deposition is altering forest dynamics, terrestrial carbon storage, and biodiversity. However, our ability to forecast how different tree species will respond to N deposition, especially key response thresholds, is limited by a lack of synthesis across spatial scales and research approaches. To develop our best understanding of N deposition impact on tree growth and survival, we will
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Integrating modeling and empirical approaches to improve predictions of tropical forest responses to global warming

Tropical forests contain > 50% of the world’s known species (Heywood 1995), 55% of global forest biomass (Pan et al. 2011), and exchange more carbon (C), water and energy with the atmosphere than any other ecosystem type (e.g., Saugier et al. 2001). Despite their importance, there is more uncertainty associated with predictions of how tropical forests will respond to warming than for any...
Integrating modeling and empirical approaches to improve predictions of tropical forest responses to global warming

Integrating modeling and empirical approaches to improve predictions of tropical forest responses to global warming

Tropical forests contain > 50% of the world’s known species (Heywood 1995), 55% of global forest biomass (Pan et al. 2011), and exchange more carbon (C), water and energy with the atmosphere than any other ecosystem type (e.g., Saugier et al. 2001). Despite their importance, there is more uncertainty associated with predictions of how tropical forests will respond to warming than for any other
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Transport of dissolved organic matter by river networks from mountains to the sea: a re-examination of the role of flow across temporal and spatial scales

The transport of dissolved organic matter (DOM) by rivers is an important component of the global carbon cycle, affects ecosystems and water quality, and reflects biogeochemical and hydrological processes in watersheds. Understanding the fundamental relationships between discharge and DOM concentration and composition reveals important information about watershed flow paths, soil...
Transport of dissolved organic matter by river networks from mountains to the sea: a re-examination of the role of flow across temporal and spatial scales

Transport of dissolved organic matter by river networks from mountains to the sea: a re-examination of the role of flow across temporal and spatial scales

The transport of dissolved organic matter (DOM) by rivers is an important component of the global carbon cycle, affects ecosystems and water quality, and reflects biogeochemical and hydrological processes in watersheds. Understanding the fundamental relationships between discharge and DOM concentration and composition reveals important information about watershed flow paths, soil flushing
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Modeling species response to environmental change: development of integrated, scalable Bayesian models of population persistence

Estimating species response to environmental change is a key challenge for ecologists and a core mission of the USGS. Effective forecasting of species response requires models that are detailed enough to capture critical processes and at the same time general enough to allow broad application. This tradeoff is difficult to reconcile with most existing methods. We propose to extend and...
Modeling species response to environmental change: development of integrated, scalable Bayesian models of population persistence

Modeling species response to environmental change: development of integrated, scalable Bayesian models of population persistence

Estimating species response to environmental change is a key challenge for ecologists and a core mission of the USGS. Effective forecasting of species response requires models that are detailed enough to capture critical processes and at the same time general enough to allow broad application. This tradeoff is difficult to reconcile with most existing methods. We propose to extend and combine
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Mercury cycling, bioaccumulation, and risk across western North America: a landscape scale synthesis linking long-term datasets

Mercury (Hg) is a serious environmental problem that is impacting ecological and human health on a global scale. However, local and regional processes are largely responsible for producing methylmercury, which drives ecological risk. This is particularly true in western North America where the combination of diverse landscapes, habitat types, climates, and Hg sources may...
Mercury cycling, bioaccumulation, and risk across western North America: a landscape scale synthesis linking long-term datasets

Mercury cycling, bioaccumulation, and risk across western North America: a landscape scale synthesis linking long-term datasets

Mercury (Hg) is a serious environmental problem that is impacting ecological and human health on a global scale. However, local and regional processes are largely responsible for producing methylmercury, which drives ecological risk. This is particularly true in western North America where the combination of diverse landscapes, habitat types, climates, and Hg sources may disproportionally impact
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Evidence for shifts in plant species diversity along N deposition gradients: a first synthesis for the United States

The impacts of nitrogen (N) deposition on plant diversity loss have been well documented across N deposition gradients in Europe, but much less so in the U.S. Published N fertilizer studies suggest losses will occur in the US, but many of these were done at levels of N input that were higher than modeled and measured N deposition, and higher than presumed N critical loads. The recent...
Evidence for shifts in plant species diversity along N deposition gradients: a first synthesis for the United States

Evidence for shifts in plant species diversity along N deposition gradients: a first synthesis for the United States

The impacts of nitrogen (N) deposition on plant diversity loss have been well documented across N deposition gradients in Europe, but much less so in the U.S. Published N fertilizer studies suggest losses will occur in the US, but many of these were done at levels of N input that were higher than modeled and measured N deposition, and higher than presumed N critical loads. The recent availability
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Animal Migration and Spatial Subsidies: Establishing a Framework for Conservation Markets

Migratory species may provide more ecosystem goods and services to humans in certain parts of their range than others. These areas may or may not coincide with the locations of habitat on which the species is most dependent for its continued population viability. This situation can present significant policy challenges, as locations that most support a given species may be in effect...
Animal Migration and Spatial Subsidies: Establishing a Framework for Conservation Markets

Animal Migration and Spatial Subsidies: Establishing a Framework for Conservation Markets

Migratory species may provide more ecosystem goods and services to humans in certain parts of their range than others. These areas may or may not coincide with the locations of habitat on which the species is most dependent for its continued population viability. This situation can present significant policy challenges, as locations that most support a given species may be in effect subsidizing
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Circumpolar assessment of ecological mismatch between avian herbivores and plant phenology

The timing of breeding is constrained in Arctic ecosystems and small temporal differences in when individuals breed can have large effects on fitness. Arctic ecosystems are generally warming more rapidly than other ecosystems which, for migratory species, can cause an imbalance, or mismatch, between when they have evolved to breed versus when it is optimal to breed environmentally. Geese...
Circumpolar assessment of ecological mismatch between avian herbivores and plant phenology

Circumpolar assessment of ecological mismatch between avian herbivores and plant phenology

The timing of breeding is constrained in Arctic ecosystems and small temporal differences in when individuals breed can have large effects on fitness. Arctic ecosystems are generally warming more rapidly than other ecosystems which, for migratory species, can cause an imbalance, or mismatch, between when they have evolved to breed versus when it is optimal to breed environmentally. Geese are
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