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Drivers of Drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin Active

By Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center April 13, 2016

The purpose of this project is to investigate Colorado River basin droughts, and the role of temperature in influencing runoff efficiency. The project uses paleoclimatic data to extend instrumental climate and flow records, along with projected warming to assess the range of possible conditions that may be expected to occur and to determine how warming temperatures may influence river flow and water supply in the future.

Colorado River Basin map

Research Questions

This collaborative project, between researchers and water resource practitioners, has four main sets of stakeholder-driven questions:

  1. If 20th century-type droughts (i.e., 1950s) under 21st century temperatures are the new “normal” for drought, how might such droughts impact upper Colorado River flow (UCRB)?
  2. What do reconstructions of past precipitation from tree rings, combined with warming temperatures to generate estimates of water year streamflow (representing both long-term natural moisture variability and anthropogenic warming), suggest as plausible scenarios and characteristics of future UCRB drought over the next half century
  3. What are the major controls on annual UCRB streamflow efficiency (i.e. the proportion of precipitation that contributes to streamflow) and how are they related to temperature, level of flow, evapotranspiration, snow dynamics, and basin elevation?
  4. Given instrumental records for the 20th and 21st centuries, what were the contributions of antecedent soil moisture, seasonal temperatures, and cool and monsoon season precipitation to periods of high and low flow in the lower Colorado River basin (LCRB)? Can tree-ring reconstructions be used to evaluate these contributions in the context of past centuries?

In addition, this project includes a preliminary investigation of some potential impact of future droughts on ecosystem health in the upper Colorado River basin.

 

Project Resources - supporting documents, data, and presentations are available on the Multimedia, Publications, and Data and Tools tabs above.

 

Additional Data and Tools (also see "Data and Tools" tab above)

 

Project Personnel

Connie Woodhouse – University of Arizona, Tucson AZ (conniew1@email.arizona.edu)
Gregory Pederson – U.S. Geological Survey, Bozeman MT (gpederson@usgs.gov)
Adam Csank – University of Nevada, Reno
Stephanie McAffee – University of Nevada, Reno
Gregory McCabe – U.S. Geological Survey, Denver CO
Stephen Gray – U.S. Geological Survey, Anchorage AK
 

Water Management Partners

Dave Kanzer – Colorado River District, CO
Eric Kuhn – Colorado River District, CO
Charlie Ester – Salt River Project, AZ
James Walter – Salt River Project, AZ
Laurna Kaatz – Denver Water, CO
Jim Prairie – Bureau of Reclamation,  Upper Colorado Region
Carly Jerla – Bureau of Reclamation, Lower Colorado District
Ken Nowak – Bureau of Reclamation,  Research and Development Office
Subhrendu Gangopadhyay – Bureau of Reclamation, Technical Service Center
Paul Miller – NOAA Colorado Basin River Forecast Center 

 

This project is funded by the DOI Southwest Climate Science Center (grant numbers . G14AP00152 and G17AP00099), and the NOAA Climate Assessment for the Southwest.

 

Below are data or web applications associated with this project.

Multi-century reconstructions of temperature, precipitation, and runoff efficiency for the Upper Colorado River Basin

With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorado R
By
Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center

Below are multimedia items associated with this project.

Below are publications associated with this project.

Investigating runoff efficiency in upper Colorado River streamflow over past centuries

With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid to the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorad
Authors
Connie A. Woodhouse, Gregory T. Pederson
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center

Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin

Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal characteristi
Authors
Stephanie A. McAfee, Gregory T. Pederson, Connie A. Woodhouse, Gregory J. McCabe
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Climate Research and Development Program, Land Change Science Program, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center

Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow

This empirical study examines the influence of precipitation, temperature, and antecedent soil moisture on upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) water year streamflow over the past century. While cool season precipitation explains most of the variability in annual flows, temperature appears to be highly influential under certain conditions, with the role of antecedent fall soil moisture less clear. In
Authors
Connie A. Woodhouse, Gregory T. Pederson, Kiyomi Morino, Stephanie A. McAfee, Gregory J. McCabe
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center

Below are partners associated with this project.

Alaska Climate Science Center (CSC)

The University of Arizona

University of Nevada, Reno

  • Overview

    The purpose of this project is to investigate Colorado River basin droughts, and the role of temperature in influencing runoff efficiency. The project uses paleoclimatic data to extend instrumental climate and flow records, along with projected warming to assess the range of possible conditions that may be expected to occur and to determine how warming temperatures may influence river flow and water supply in the future.

    Colorado River Basin map

    Research Questions

    This collaborative project, between researchers and water resource practitioners, has four main sets of stakeholder-driven questions:

    1. If 20th century-type droughts (i.e., 1950s) under 21st century temperatures are the new “normal” for drought, how might such droughts impact upper Colorado River flow (UCRB)?
    2. What do reconstructions of past precipitation from tree rings, combined with warming temperatures to generate estimates of water year streamflow (representing both long-term natural moisture variability and anthropogenic warming), suggest as plausible scenarios and characteristics of future UCRB drought over the next half century
    3. What are the major controls on annual UCRB streamflow efficiency (i.e. the proportion of precipitation that contributes to streamflow) and how are they related to temperature, level of flow, evapotranspiration, snow dynamics, and basin elevation?
    4. Given instrumental records for the 20th and 21st centuries, what were the contributions of antecedent soil moisture, seasonal temperatures, and cool and monsoon season precipitation to periods of high and low flow in the lower Colorado River basin (LCRB)? Can tree-ring reconstructions be used to evaluate these contributions in the context of past centuries?

    In addition, this project includes a preliminary investigation of some potential impact of future droughts on ecosystem health in the upper Colorado River basin.

     

    Project Resources - supporting documents, data, and presentations are available on the Multimedia, Publications, and Data and Tools tabs above.

     

    Additional Data and Tools (also see "Data and Tools" tab above)

     

    Project Personnel

    Connie Woodhouse – University of Arizona, Tucson AZ (conniew1@email.arizona.edu)
    Gregory Pederson – U.S. Geological Survey, Bozeman MT (gpederson@usgs.gov)
    Adam Csank – University of Nevada, Reno
    Stephanie McAffee – University of Nevada, Reno
    Gregory McCabe – U.S. Geological Survey, Denver CO
    Stephen Gray – U.S. Geological Survey, Anchorage AK
     

    Water Management Partners

    Dave Kanzer – Colorado River District, CO
    Eric Kuhn – Colorado River District, CO
    Charlie Ester – Salt River Project, AZ
    James Walter – Salt River Project, AZ
    Laurna Kaatz – Denver Water, CO
    Jim Prairie – Bureau of Reclamation,  Upper Colorado Region
    Carly Jerla – Bureau of Reclamation, Lower Colorado District
    Ken Nowak – Bureau of Reclamation,  Research and Development Office
    Subhrendu Gangopadhyay – Bureau of Reclamation, Technical Service Center
    Paul Miller – NOAA Colorado Basin River Forecast Center 

     

    This project is funded by the DOI Southwest Climate Science Center (grant numbers . G14AP00152 and G17AP00099), and the NOAA Climate Assessment for the Southwest.

     

  • Data

    Below are data or web applications associated with this project.

    Multi-century reconstructions of temperature, precipitation, and runoff efficiency for the Upper Colorado River Basin

    With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorado R
    By
    Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center
  • Multimedia

    Below are multimedia items associated with this project.

  • Publications

    Below are publications associated with this project.

    Investigating runoff efficiency in upper Colorado River streamflow over past centuries

    With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid to the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorad
    Authors
    Connie A. Woodhouse, Gregory T. Pederson
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center

    Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin

    Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal characteristi
    Authors
    Stephanie A. McAfee, Gregory T. Pederson, Connie A. Woodhouse, Gregory J. McCabe
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Climate Research and Development Program, Land Change Science Program, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center

    Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow

    This empirical study examines the influence of precipitation, temperature, and antecedent soil moisture on upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) water year streamflow over the past century. While cool season precipitation explains most of the variability in annual flows, temperature appears to be highly influential under certain conditions, with the role of antecedent fall soil moisture less clear. In
    Authors
    Connie A. Woodhouse, Gregory T. Pederson, Kiyomi Morino, Stephanie A. McAfee, Gregory J. McCabe
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center
  • Partners

    Below are partners associated with this project.

    Alaska Climate Science Center (CSC)

    The University of Arizona

    University of Nevada, Reno