Decision Support Tools and Modeling

Bighead carp and silver carp (collectively known as bigheaded carps) first escaped to the Mississippi River Basin in the 1970s and have since invaded the Upper Mississippi River. The species threaten the economies and ecosystems for the Upper Mississippi River. USGS scientists are developing population-level models to help guide and inform control strategies and evaluate ongoing management actions...

Bighead carp and silver carp (collectively known as bigheaded carps) first escaped to the Mississippi River Basin in the 1970s and by 1989 had invaded the Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers. The species threaten the economies and ecosystems for these rivers and are currently spreading upriver. USGS scientists are developing population-level models to help guide and inform control strategies and...

The Golden-winged Warbler ( Vermivora chrysoptera), a small chickadee-like bird with a distinctive golden-colored cap and wing bars, is a species of considerable conservation concern in North America, primarily due to widespread population declines attributable to habitat loss and hybridization with the Blue-winged Warbler ( V. cyanoptera) in areas of sympatry. Recent concerns extend to the...

R is a free software that is used to run statistical analyses and models as well as create figures such as graphs and maps that can be used to display the data collected. While using this software researchers can also use downloadable packages that increase the number of analyses and models they can perform. Statisticians and researchers collaborate to create new packages that can be used by other...

Occupancy models are used by researchers to estimate the true occupancy of a species and accounts for imperfect detection of organisms in a study. Researchers will visit sampling sites to collect species detection data (e.g., species count). Occupancy models can predict the detection probability (probability of finding a species at a specific time and site) and occupancy (probability a species...

Presence-absence surveys are commonly used to estimate the spatial distribution of a species. However, during a field survey some organisms, especially rare or elusive species, can be missed; increasing the chance of error in the data collected. To combat the potential error, researchers will regularly visit sites and collect more data that will later be analyzed using occupancy models. Occupancy...

Climate matching is a method for understanding species distributions and ranges and may be used as part of horizon scanning. Horizon scanning is the process of examining potential risk of invasion of new invasive species. Preventing new invasive species invasion requires less time and resources than attempting to control and remove established invasive species. Horizon scanning allows resource...

Bighead carp ( Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) and silver carp ( Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) are invasive carp species within the Mississippi River basin. In the early-1970s these species escaped from ponds where people introduced them to control algae (ICRCC). Invasive carp cause ecological and economic damage by outcompeting native species and disrupting native food webs. Stopping the spread of...

Models seek to describe the natural world around us and how we interact with the world. For example, physical models might help Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center (UMESC) visitors understand landscapes, such as the Mississippi River or topology and water flow.

A simulation-based power analysis can be used to estimate the sample sizes needed for a successful monitoring program, but requires technical expertise and sometimes extensive computing resources. We developed a web-based lookup app, called TrendPowerTool, to provide guidance for ecological monitoring programs when resources are not available for a simulation-based power analysis (Fig. 1)...

Four types of invasive carp are currently found in the United States: black, grass, silver, and bighead carps. These species are fast growing, prolific feeders that out-compete native fish species and drastically alter the natural ecosystems they invade. To prevent the spread of invasive carp into the Great Lakes, the multi-agency Asian Carp Regional Coordinating Committee (ACRCC) implements...

Four types of invasive carp fish species, are currently found in the United States: black, grass, silver, and bighead carps. These species are fast growing, prolific feeders that out-compete native fish species and drastically alter the natural ecosystems they invade. To prevent the spread of invasive carp into the Great Lakes, the multi-agency Asian Carp Regional Coordinating Committee (ACRCC)...