Science Center Objects

Arrowhead Marsh is located in central San Francisco Bay and covers 17 hectares. We surveyed 274 elevation points and 50 vegetation plots to determine baseline conditions of the marsh. Water level loggers deployed in 2010 were used to characterize the tidal inundation patterns throughout the year. Sediment accretion rates from soil cores at China Camp State Park were extrapolated to Arrowhead and used as input for the WARMER sea-level rise response model. WARMER projects that by 2040 Arrowhead marsh will be dominated by low marsh vegetation and will transition into mudflat habitat by 2080. 

Arrowhead Marsh is located in central San Francisco Bay and covers 17 hectares. We surveyed 274 elevation points and 50 vegetation plots to determine baseline conditions of the marsh. Water level loggers deployed in 2010 were used to characterize the tidal inundation patterns throughout the year. Sediment accretion rates from soil cores at China Camp State Park were extrapolated to Arrowhead and used as input for the WARMER sea-level rise response model. WARMER projects that by 2040 Arrowhead marsh will be dominated by low marsh vegetation and will transition into mudflat habitat by 2080. 

ARROWHEAD MARSH

WERC Arrowhead study area
(Public domain.)
WERC Arrowhead Marsh figures
The elevation histogram for Arrowhead Marsh shows the marsh platform is below MHW on average (Fig. 1).  Data from the vegetation surveys indicate relatively low species diversity (Fig. 2).   Results from WARMER response model indicate that Arrowhead will lose relative elevation as sea levels rise (Fig. 3).  The marsh platform at Arrowhead marsh is projected to transition to low marsh habitat by 2050 and be below mean sea level by 2080 (Fig. 4).  The percent of time Arrowhead Marsh is inundated varies throughout the year by season, with the most inundation during the winter (Fig. 5).(Public domain.)
WERC Arrowhead marsh WARMER results
(Public domain.)

To download the Arrowhead PDF Summary Report (Arrowhead appendix from USGS Open-File Report Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes):