WARC researchers partnered with managers and species experts to develop a Bayesian network model and a geospatial habitat characteristics dataset to predict the number of Brown Pelican breeding pairs on islands in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Gulf restoration programs increasingly fund management actions designed to meet species’ needs. However, there is uncertainty about the ability of these management actions to achieve population objectives. This makes it difficult for managers to establish habitat objectives and translate them into the actions necessary to meet population objectives. Brown Pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis) are species of conservation concern that form breeding colonies on islands in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Northern Gulf of Mexico Biological Planning Units (BPU) (Fig. 1). Ten of the BPUs have Brown Pelican population objectives. Due to limited nesting habitat that is threatened by climate change as well as high desirability of these habitats by humans for infrastructure and recreation, conservation opportunities are limited and expensive. The project goal is to support strategic habitat conservation on the Gulf Coast by developing quantitative tools that can help establish Brown Pelican habitat objectives and the effort required to achieve them (i.e., management efficiency).
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: We partnered with managers and species experts to develop a Bayesian network model and a geospatial habitat characteristics dataset to predict the number of Brown Pelican breeding pairs on islands in each of the 10 target BPUs. The results suggested that current habitat is insufficient to meet population objectives in four BPUs. We used the model to identify specific management actions on specific islands, and we simulated opportunistic or targeted management of those islands until the population objective was met.
Future Steps: The results will be used to support Brown Pelican adaptive management by enabling managers to prioritize actions and determine the most efficient ways to meet recovery objectives. A peer-reviewed journal article will provide a detailed project description and the products will be made publicly available on ScienceBase.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Biological Objectives for the Gulf Coast: Biological Planning Units & Target Species Population Objectives
Strategic Habitat Conservation for Gulf Sturgeon
Strategic Habitat Conservation for Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern
Strategic Habitat Conservation for Beach Mice (Peromyscus polionotus ssp.)
- Overview
WARC researchers partnered with managers and species experts to develop a Bayesian network model and a geospatial habitat characteristics dataset to predict the number of Brown Pelican breeding pairs on islands in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.Brown Pelican (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Ecological Services) The Science Issue and Relevance: Gulf restoration programs increasingly fund management actions designed to meet species’ needs. However, there is uncertainty about the ability of these management actions to achieve population objectives. This makes it difficult for managers to establish habitat objectives and translate them into the actions necessary to meet population objectives. Brown Pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis) are species of conservation concern that form breeding colonies on islands in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Northern Gulf of Mexico Biological Planning Units (BPU) (Fig. 1). Ten of the BPUs have Brown Pelican population objectives. Due to limited nesting habitat that is threatened by climate change as well as high desirability of these habitats by humans for infrastructure and recreation, conservation opportunities are limited and expensive. The project goal is to support strategic habitat conservation on the Gulf Coast by developing quantitative tools that can help establish Brown Pelican habitat objectives and the effort required to achieve them (i.e., management efficiency).
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.Fig 1. Study area. Biological planning units are outlined in black. Potential breeding colony locations are in red. Methodology for Addressing the Issue: We partnered with managers and species experts to develop a Bayesian network model and a geospatial habitat characteristics dataset to predict the number of Brown Pelican breeding pairs on islands in each of the 10 target BPUs. The results suggested that current habitat is insufficient to meet population objectives in four BPUs. We used the model to identify specific management actions on specific islands, and we simulated opportunistic or targeted management of those islands until the population objective was met.
Future Steps: The results will be used to support Brown Pelican adaptive management by enabling managers to prioritize actions and determine the most efficient ways to meet recovery objectives. A peer-reviewed journal article will provide a detailed project description and the products will be made publicly available on ScienceBase.
- Science
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Biological Objectives for the Gulf Coast: Biological Planning Units & Target Species Population Objectives
The USGS partnered with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and its conservation partners to develop 16 Biological Planning Units (BPU) and six Aquatic Extensions and compile population objectives for 166 species that are representative of habitats within each BPU.Strategic Habitat Conservation for Gulf Sturgeon
WARC researchers partnered with Gulf Sturgeon decision makers and biologists to develop a Bayesian network model that uses habitat characteristics to predict the quantity of juvenile winter foraging habitat under alternative river discharge and timing of juvenile arrival scenarios.Strategic Habitat Conservation for Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern
WARC researchers partnered with managers and species experts to develop a Bayesian network model and a geospatial habitat characteristics dataset to predict the number of breeding pairs of Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern along the northern Gulf of Mexico.Strategic Habitat Conservation for Beach Mice (Peromyscus polionotus ssp.)
WARC researchers partnered with beach mice managers and biologists to estimate habitat objectives and the amount of effort needed to achieve the habitat objective (i.e., management efficiency) for three beach mice subspecies in Florida’s panhandle. - Data
- Publications