WARC researchers partnered with managers and species experts to develop a Bayesian network model and a geospatial habitat characteristics dataset to predict the number of breeding pairs of Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern along the northern Gulf of Mexico.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Gulf of Mexico restoration programs increasingly fund management actions designed to meet species’ needs. However, there is uncertainty about the ability of these management actions to achieve population objectives. This makes it difficult for managers to establish habitat objectives and translate them into the actions necessary to meet population objectives. Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern are U.S. Fish and Wildlfie Service (USFWS) Species of Conservation Concern, Gulf Coast Joint Venture Priority Species, and are representative species that form breeding colonies on beaches and barrier islands in the USFWS’s Northern Gulf of Mexico Biological Planning Units (BPU) (Fig. 1). Eight of these BPUs have Black Skimmer and/or Gull-billed Tern population objectives. Due to limited nesting habitat that is threatened by climate change and the high desirability of these habitats by humans for infrastructure and recreational use, conservation opportunities are both limited and expensive. The project goal is to support strategic habitat conservation on the Gulf Coast by developing quantitative, spatial tools to help estimate Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern habitat objectives and the effort required to achieve them (i.e., management efficiency).
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: We partnered with managers and species experts to develop a Bayesian network model and a geospatial habitat characteristics dataset to predict the number of breeding pairs of each species in each of the target BPUs. The results suggest current habitat is insufficient to meet population objectives in 50% of the BPUs.
Future Steps: We are working with the Gulf Coast Joint Venture and climate aadaptation science centers to use the model to identify which management actions might be taken on specific islands to most efficiently meet population objectives. A peer-reviewed journal article will provide a detailed project description and the products will be made available on ScienceBase.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Biological Objectives for the Gulf Coast: Biological Planning Units & Target Species Population Objectives
Strategic Habitat Conservation for Gulf Sturgeon
Strategic Habitat Conservation for Brown Pelican
Strategic Habitat Conservation for Beach Mice (Peromyscus polionotus ssp.)
Identifying Conservation Objectives for the Gulf Coast Habitats of the Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern
- Overview
WARC researchers partnered with managers and species experts to develop a Bayesian network model and a geospatial habitat characteristics dataset to predict the number of breeding pairs of Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern along the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern The Science Issue and Relevance: Gulf of Mexico restoration programs increasingly fund management actions designed to meet species’ needs. However, there is uncertainty about the ability of these management actions to achieve population objectives. This makes it difficult for managers to establish habitat objectives and translate them into the actions necessary to meet population objectives. Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern are U.S. Fish and Wildlfie Service (USFWS) Species of Conservation Concern, Gulf Coast Joint Venture Priority Species, and are representative species that form breeding colonies on beaches and barrier islands in the USFWS’s Northern Gulf of Mexico Biological Planning Units (BPU) (Fig. 1). Eight of these BPUs have Black Skimmer and/or Gull-billed Tern population objectives. Due to limited nesting habitat that is threatened by climate change and the high desirability of these habitats by humans for infrastructure and recreational use, conservation opportunities are both limited and expensive. The project goal is to support strategic habitat conservation on the Gulf Coast by developing quantitative, spatial tools to help estimate Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern habitat objectives and the effort required to achieve them (i.e., management efficiency).
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.Figure 1. Study area. Biological Planning Units are outlined in black. Potential Black Skimmer and/or Gull-billed Tern breeding colony locations are in red. Methodology for Addressing the Issue: We partnered with managers and species experts to develop a Bayesian network model and a geospatial habitat characteristics dataset to predict the number of breeding pairs of each species in each of the target BPUs. The results suggest current habitat is insufficient to meet population objectives in 50% of the BPUs.
Future Steps: We are working with the Gulf Coast Joint Venture and climate aadaptation science centers to use the model to identify which management actions might be taken on specific islands to most efficiently meet population objectives. A peer-reviewed journal article will provide a detailed project description and the products will be made available on ScienceBase.
- Science
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Biological Objectives for the Gulf Coast: Biological Planning Units & Target Species Population Objectives
The USGS partnered with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and its conservation partners to develop 16 Biological Planning Units (BPU) and six Aquatic Extensions and compile population objectives for 166 species that are representative of habitats within each BPU.Strategic Habitat Conservation for Gulf Sturgeon
WARC researchers partnered with Gulf Sturgeon decision makers and biologists to develop a Bayesian network model that uses habitat characteristics to predict the quantity of juvenile winter foraging habitat under alternative river discharge and timing of juvenile arrival scenarios.Strategic Habitat Conservation for Brown Pelican
WARC researchers partnered with managers and species experts to develop a Bayesian network model and a geospatial habitat characteristics dataset to predict the number of Brown Pelican breeding pairs on islands in the northern Gulf of Mexico.Strategic Habitat Conservation for Beach Mice (Peromyscus polionotus ssp.)
WARC researchers partnered with beach mice managers and biologists to estimate habitat objectives and the amount of effort needed to achieve the habitat objective (i.e., management efficiency) for three beach mice subspecies in Florida’s panhandle.Identifying Conservation Objectives for the Gulf Coast Habitats of the Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern
Many shorebirds and nearshore waterbirds are of conservation concern across the Gulf of Mexico due to stressors such as human disturbance, predation, and habitat loss and degradation. Conservation and protection of these birds is important for the functioning of healthy ecosystems and for maintaining biodiversity in North America. Consequently, resource managers along the gulf need decision-aiding - Data
- Publications