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Burn probability models calibrated using past human and lightning ignition patterns in the Madrean Sky Islands, Arizona

February 7, 2022

Burn probability (BP) models involve the simulation of multiple individual wildfires across a landscape to obtain estimates of fire likelihood at any given location based on ignition source, local terrain, fuels and weather. We used FlamMap software to generate BP for 10,000 simulated fires under the three ignition scenarios: human ignition scenario (HIS), lightning ignition scenario (LIS) and random ignition scenario (RIS) for 13 sky island mountain ranges in Arizona. The zipped folder contains 42 BP models in geotiff format. The naming convention for each tiff is: mountain_range_name and scenario type (human, lightning, or random) and bp.