Publications
Educational Publications
Educational Publications
Selected publications about earthquakes In plain language.
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Research to improve ShakeAlert earthquake early warning products and their utility Research to improve ShakeAlert earthquake early warning products and their utility
Earthquake early warning (EEW) is the rapid detection of an earthquake and issuance of an alert or notification to people and vulnerable systems likely to experience potentially damaging ground shaking. The level of ground shaking that is considered damaging is defined by the specific application; for example, manufacturing equipment may experience damage at a lower intensity ground...
Authors
Elizabeth S. Cochran, Brad T. Aagaard, Richard M. Allen, Jennifer Andrews, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Andrew J. Barbour, Paul Bodin, Benjamin A. Brooks, Angela Chung, Brendan W. Crowell, Douglas D. Given, Thomas C. Hanks, J. Renate Hartog, Egill Hauksson, Thomas H. Heaton, Sara K. McBride, Men-Andrin Meier, Diego Melgar, Sarah E. Minson, Jessica R. Murray, Jennifer A. Strauss, Douglas Toomey
Back to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake Back to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake
Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate...
Authors
Daniel Melnick, Shaoyang Li, Marcos Moreno, Macro Cisternas, Julius Jara-Munoz, Robert L. Wesson, Alan R. Nelson, Juan Carlos Baez, Zhiguo Deng
The Hayward Fault—Is it due for a repeat of the powerful 1868 earthquake? The Hayward Fault—Is it due for a repeat of the powerful 1868 earthquake?
On October 21, 1868, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay area. Although the region was sparsely populated, the quake on the Hayward Fault was one of the most destructive in California’s history. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) studies show that similar Hayward Fault quakes have repeatedly jolted the region in the past and that the fault may be ready to produce another...
Authors
Thomas M. Brocher, Jack Boatwright, James J. Lienkaemper, Carol S. Prentice, David P. Schwartz, Howard Bundock
Intensities, aftershock sequences, and the location of the 1936 Milton‐Freewater earthquake near the Oregon–Washington border, U.S.A. Intensities, aftershock sequences, and the location of the 1936 Milton‐Freewater earthquake near the Oregon–Washington border, U.S.A.
The epicenter of the 16 July 1936 MM 6 Milton‐Freewater earthquake, also known as the State Line earthquake and the largest historical earthquake in northeastern Oregon or southeastern Washington, is uncertain. Various studies place the epicenter of the earthquake, which was widely felt in eastern Washington, northeastern Oregon, and northern Idaho, within 30 km of the intersection of...
Authors
Thomas M. Brocher, Brian L. Sherrod
A physics-based earthquake simulator replicates seismic hazard statistics across California A physics-based earthquake simulator replicates seismic hazard statistics across California
Seismic hazard models are important for society, feeding into building codes and hazard mitigation efforts. These models, however, rest on many uncertain assumptions and are difficult to test observationally because of the long recurrence times of large earthquakes. Physics-based earthquake simulators offer a potentially helpful tool, but they face a vast range of fundamental scientific
Authors
Bruce E. Shaw, Kevin R. Milner, Edward H. Field, Keith B. Richards-Dinger, Jacquelyn J. Gilchrist, James H. Dieterich, Thomas H. Jordan
Pressure core analysis of geomechanical and fluid flow properties of seals associated with gas hydrate-bearing reservoirs in the Krishna-Godavari Basin, offshore India Pressure core analysis of geomechanical and fluid flow properties of seals associated with gas hydrate-bearing reservoirs in the Krishna-Godavari Basin, offshore India
Physical properties of the sediment directly overlying a gas hydrate reservoir provide important controls on the effectiveness of depressurizing that reservoir to extract methane from gas hydrate as an energy resource. The permeability of overlying sediment determines if a gas hydrate reservoir’s upper contact will provide an effective seal that enables efficient reservoir...
Authors
Junbong Jang, Sheng Dai, J. Yoneda, William F. Waite, Laura A. Stern, Lee-Gray Boze, Timothy S. Collett, Pushpendra Kumar
Modeling the Holocene slip history of the Wasatch fault (Utah): Coseismic and postseismic Coulomb stress changes and implications for paleoseismicity and seismic hazard Modeling the Holocene slip history of the Wasatch fault (Utah): Coseismic and postseismic Coulomb stress changes and implications for paleoseismicity and seismic hazard
The Wasatch fault zone defines the eastern boundary of the actively extending Basin and Range Province (Utah, western United States) and poses a significant seismic hazard to the metropolitan areas along the Wasatch Range. A wealth of paleoseismological data documents ∼24 surface-rupturing Mw ≥ 7 earthquakes along the Wasatch fault during the past 6400 yr. Here, we simulated the Holocene
Authors
Meike Bagge, Hampel andrea, Ryan D. Gold
Slab2, a comprehensive subduction zone geometry model Slab2, a comprehensive subduction zone geometry model
Subduction zones are home to the most seismically active faults on the planet. The shallow megathrust interfaces of subduction zones host our largest earthquakes and are likely the only faults capable of magnitude 9+ ruptures. Despite these facts, our knowledge of subduction zone geometry—which likely plays a key role in determining the spatial extent and ultimately the size of...
Authors
Gavin P. Hayes, Ginevra Moore, Daniel E. Portner, Mike Hearne, Hanna E. Flamme, Maria Furtney, Gregory M. Smoczyk
Shear failure of a granite pin traversing a sawcut fault Shear failure of a granite pin traversing a sawcut fault
Fault heterogeneities such as bumps, bends, and stepovers are commonly observed on natural faults, but are challenging to recreate under controlled laboratory conditions. We study deformation and microseismicity of a 76 mm-diameter Westerly granite cylinder with a sawcut fault with known frictional properties. An idealized asperity is added by emplacing a precision-ground 21 mm-diameter...
Authors
Gregory C. McLaskey, David A. Lockner
The case for mean rupture distance in ground‐motion estimation The case for mean rupture distance in ground‐motion estimation
This article advocates for the use of mean rupture distances that we contend are more physically representative of the distance to an earthquake and are simpler than minimum distances. Many current ground‐motion models (GMMs) rely on numerous modifications of minimum rupture distances to accurately model near‐source ground motions. These modifications, that include additional distance...
Authors
Eric M. Thompson, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom
Broadband synthetic seismograms for magnitude 9 earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust based on 3D simulations and stochastic synthetics, part 1: Methodology and overall results Broadband synthetic seismograms for magnitude 9 earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust based on 3D simulations and stochastic synthetics, part 1: Methodology and overall results
We have produced a large set of broadband (0–10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for Mw 9.0 earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust by combining synthetic seismograms derived from 3D finite‐difference simulations (≤1 Hz) with finite‐source, stochastic synthetics (≥1 Hz). We used a compound rupture model consisting of high stress drop Mw 8 subevents superimposed on large, shallower slip...
Authors
Arthur D. Frankel, Erin A. Wirth, Nasser A. Marafi, John Vidale, William J. Stephenson
Broadband synthetic seismograms for magnitude 9 earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathrust based on 3D simulations and stochastic synthetics, Part 2: Rupture parameters and variability Broadband synthetic seismograms for magnitude 9 earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathrust based on 3D simulations and stochastic synthetics, Part 2: Rupture parameters and variability
We used a combination of 3D finite‐difference simulations (>1 Hz) to generate broadband (0–10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for numerous Mw 9 earthquake rupture scenarios on the Cascadia megathrust. Slip consists of multiple high‐stress‐drop subevents (Mw 8) with short rise times on the deeper portions of the fault, superimposed on a background slip distribution with longer rise times. We...
Authors
Erin A. Wirth, Arthur D. Frankel, Nasser A. Marafi, John E. Vidale, William J. Stephenson