Publications
Educational Publications
Educational Publications
Selected publications about earthquakes In plain language.
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Tilt Trivia: A free multiplayer app to learn geoscience concepts and definitions Tilt Trivia: A free multiplayer app to learn geoscience concepts and definitions
Today’s technology is opening up new ways to learn. Here, we introduce Tilt Trivia, a suite of quiz‐style, multiplayer games for use on mobile devices and tablets (Android or Apple) to help students learn simple definitions and facts. This mobile device game was built using the Unity engine and has a multiplayer functionality that runs seamlessly, all day, every day. A single game...
Authors
Debi Kilb, Alan Yang, Nathan Garrett, Kristine L. Pankow, Justin L. Rubinstein, Lisa Linville
KG²B, a collaborative benchmarking exercise for estimating the permeability of the Grimsel granodiorite - Part 2: modeling, microstructures and complementary data KG²B, a collaborative benchmarking exercise for estimating the permeability of the Grimsel granodiorite - Part 2: modeling, microstructures and complementary data
Measuring and modelling the permeability of tight rocks remains a challenging task. In addition to the traditional sources of errors that affect more permeable formations (e.g. sample selection, non-representative specimens, disturbance introduced during sample acquisition and preparation), tight rocks can be particularly prone to solid–fluid interactions and thus more sensitive to the...
Authors
Christian David, J. Wassermann, F. Amann, J.M. Klaver, C. Davy, J. Sarout, L. Esteban, E.H. Rutter, Q. Hu, L. Louis, P. Delage, David A. Lockner, A.P.S. Selvadurai, T Vanorio, A. Amann Hildenbrand, P.G. Meredith, J. Browning, T.M. Mitchell, C. Madonna, J. Billiotte, T. Reuschle, D. Lasseux, J. Fortin, R. Lenormand, D. Loggia, F. Nono, G. Boitnott, E. Jahns, Fleury. M., G. Berthe, P. Braun, D. Gregoire, L. Perrier, P. Polito, Y. Jannot, A. Sommier, B. Krooss, R. Fink, A. Clark
Decomposing leftovers: Event, path, and site residuals for a small magnitude ANZA region GMPE Decomposing leftovers: Event, path, and site residuals for a small magnitude ANZA region GMPE
Ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are critical elements of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as well as for other applications of ground motions. To isolate the path component for the purpose of building nonergodic GMPEs, we compute a regional GMPE using a large dataset of peak ground accelerations (PGAs) from small‐magnitude earthquakes (0.5 ≤ M ≤ 4.5 with > 10,000...
Authors
Valerie Jean Sahakian, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Thomas C. Hanks, Janine S. Buehler, Frank L. Vernon, Deborah L. Kilb
Turing-style tests for UCERF3 synthetic catalogs Turing-style tests for UCERF3 synthetic catalogs
Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) catalogs generated from the 3rd Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) model are unique in that they are the first to combine a complex, fault-based long-term forecast with short-term earthquake clustering statistics. We present Turing-style tests to examine whether these synthetic catalogs can successfully imitate observed...
Authors
Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst
Stronger peak ground motion, beyond the threshold to initiate a response, does not lead to larger stream discharge responses to earthquakes Stronger peak ground motion, beyond the threshold to initiate a response, does not lead to larger stream discharge responses to earthquakes
The impressive number of stream gauges in Chile, combined with a suite of past and recent large earthquakes, makes Chile a unique natural laboratory to study several streams that recorded responses to multiple seismic events. We document changes in discharge in eight streams in Chile following two or more large earthquakes. In all cases, discharge increases. Changes in discharge occur...
Authors
Christian H. Mohr, Michael Manga, David J. Wald
The science, engineering applications, and policy implications of simulation-based PSHA The science, engineering applications, and policy implications of simulation-based PSHA
We summarize scientific methods for developing probabilistic seismic hazard assessments from 3-D earthquake ground motion simulations, describe current use of simulated ground motions for engineering applications, and discuss on-going efforts to incorporate these effects in the U.S. national seismic hazard model. The 3-D simulations provide important, additional information about...
Authors
Morgan P. Moschetti, Sandra P. Chang, C.B Crouse, Arthur D. Frankel, Robert Graves, H Puangnak, Nico Luco, Christine A. Goulet, Sanaz Rezaeian, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Mark D. Petersen, Scott Callaghan, T.H. Jordan, Kevin R. Milner
Candidate products for operational earthquake forecasting illustrated using the HayWired planning scenario, including one very quick (and not‐so‐dirty) hazard‐map option Candidate products for operational earthquake forecasting illustrated using the HayWired planning scenario, including one very quick (and not‐so‐dirty) hazard‐map option
In an effort to help address debates on the usefulness of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), we illustrate a number of OEF products that could be automatically generated in near‐real time. To exemplify, we use an M 7.1 mainshock on the Hayward fault, which is very similar to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) HayWired earthquake planning scenario. Given that there is always some...
Authors
Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner
Frictional properties and 3-D stress analysis of the southern Alpine Fault, New Zealand Frictional properties and 3-D stress analysis of the southern Alpine Fault, New Zealand
New Zealand's Alpine Fault (AF) ruptures quasi-periodically in large-magnitude earthquakes. Paleoseismological evidence suggests that about half of all recognized AF earthquakes terminated at the boundary between the Central and South Westland sections of the fault. There, fault geometry and the polarity of uplift change. The South Westland AF exhibits oblique-normal fault motion on a...
Authors
Carolyn Boulton, Nicolas C. Barth, Diane E. Moore, David A. Lockner, John Townend, Daniel R. Faulkner
To catch a quake To catch a quake
A revolution in seismic detection technology is underway, capturing unprecedented observations of earthquakes and their impacts. These sensor innovations provide real-time ground shaking observations that could improve emergency response following damaging earthquakes and may advance our understanding of the physics of earthquake ruptures.
Authors
Elizabeth S. Cochran
Using geologic structures to constrain constitutive laws not accessible in the laboratory Using geologic structures to constrain constitutive laws not accessible in the laboratory
In this essay, we explore a central problem of structural geology today, and in the foreseeable future, which is the determination of constitutive laws governing rock deformation to produce geologic structures. Although laboratory experiments provide much needed data and insights about constitutive laws, these experiments cannot cover the range of conditions and compositions relevant to...
Authors
Johanna Nevitt, Jessica M. Warren, Kathryn M. Kumamoto, David D. Pollard
Why aftershock duration matters for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment Why aftershock duration matters for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment
Most hazard assessments assume that high background seismicity rates indicate a higher probability of large shocks and, therefore, of strong shaking. However, in slowly deforming regions, such as eastern North America, Australia, and inner Honshu, this assumption breaks down if the seismicity clusters are instead aftershocks of historic and prehistoric mainshocks. Here, therefore we...
Authors
Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein
ShakeMap-based prediction of earthquake-induced mass movements in Switzerland calibrated on historical observations ShakeMap-based prediction of earthquake-induced mass movements in Switzerland calibrated on historical observations
In Switzerland, nearly all historical Mw ~ 6 earthquakes have induced damaging landslides, rockslides and snow avalanches that, in some cases, also resulted in damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. We describe the customisation to Swiss conditions of a globally calibrated statistical approach originally developed to rapidly assess earthquake-induced landslide likelihoods worldwide...
Authors
Carlo Cauzzi, Donat Fah, David J. Wald, John Clinton, Stephane Losey, Stefan Wiemer