Actionable Science to Understand the Effects of Recent Temperature Increases to Inform Natural Resources Management in the Southwestern United States

In recent decades, average temperatures across the U.S. Southwest have increased substantially and precipitation patterns have increased in variability. The warmer temperatures directly impact water availability within Southwest ecosystems, including earlier snowmelts; reduced snowpacks, soil moisture, and streamflow; and lower humidity. Collectively, this has led to an increase in aridity across this region. This in turn affects terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, increases wildfire severity, and impacts human activities such as agriculture and municipal water use. These well-documented trends are at the forefront of the concerns of natural resource managers in the Southwest. This project aims to strengthen partnerships among researchers, natural resource managers, and stakeholders and rightsholders by collectively exploring the diverse effects of warming trends on natural resource management priorities in the Southwest.

This work examines the effects of long-term warming trends and short-term extremes (e.g., heat waves) on ecosystems across the Southwest through four main projects. The first project uses data from recent decades to assess the effects of warming ocean temperatures on Southwest coastal systems. A second project examines the connections between rising temperatures and wildfire severity in this region to increase understanding of forest resilience after fires in a changing environment. The third project investigates how meteorological and climate change induced factors impact low-cloud behavior to assess the potential effects on coastal ecosystems. The goal of the fourth project engages the greater Colorado River community in a joint effort to create a platform for sharing scientific efforts related to the Colorado River that are relevant to climate-related changes in water supply.

Collectively, the results of the proposed efforts provide improved understanding of how warming temperatures impact Southwest ecosystems and processes. More importantly, it provides timely and usable science to fill critical knowledge gaps, informs natural resource managers of that science, and helps to ensure that the Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (SW CASC) is well-positioned to serve its key stakeholders and rightsholders in the future.